TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Spotify printed a modest beat on 4Q and a particularly poor guidance for 2021 – even for a company that chronically underwhelms on guidance. What strikes us is this is one of the worst business models of a large cap TMT company we’ve ever seen. The future bliss of podcasting driven profitability is clearly just that…future bliss. Management has NEVER explained how podcasting will translate into a more profitable business other than through hazy comments about “holistic nature of churn reduction and new users”…it reminds us of Reed Hastings when he promised that one day Netflix would be FCF positive years ago…but at least Netflix had an operating model with inherent operating leverage and pricing power, neither of which is present with Spotify. We can justify downside to $125, but realistically think $200 is a reasonable price target.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Spotify printed a modest beat on 4Q and a particularly poor guidance for 2021 – even for a company that chronically underwhelms on guidance. What strikes us is this is one of the worst business models of a large cap TMT company we’ve ever seen. The future bliss of podcasting driven profitability is clearly just that…future bliss. Management has NEVER explained how podcasting will translate into a more profitable business other than through hazy comments about “holistic nature of churn reduction and new users”…it reminds us of Reed Hastings when he promised that one day Netflix would be FCF positive years ago…but at least Netflix had an operating model with inherent operating leverage and pricing power, neither of which is present with Spotify. We can justify downside to $125, but realistically think $200 is a reasonable price target.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<div class="content-highlight"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)</a> shares increased 9.7% on 3 February to 97,700 won. Kia Motor's stock price has risen 57% YTD. Kia Motors' market share has climbed to 39.6 trillion won ($35.6 billion). It has been reported in the local media that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> plans to invest 4 trillion won ($3.6 billion) as a part of a collaboration with Kia Motors on making electric vehicles. </div>

Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS) shares increased 9.7% on 3 February to 97,700 won. Kia Motor's stock price has risen 57% YTD. Kia Motors' market share has climbed to 39.6 trillion won ($35.6 billion). It has been reported in the local media that Apple Inc (AAPL US) plans to invest 4 trillion won ($3.6 billion) as a part of a collaboration with Kia Motors on making electric vehicles. 

Apple to Invest $3.6 Billion in Kia Motors: HMC Group Has Come a Long Way from the Sir Charles Ads

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*UK BNPL Review Should Add Structure: Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] British business and the entire Buy-Now, Pay-Later (BNPL) segment is to be reviewed by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) – not dis-similar to those reviews conducted in Australia. We believe that the outcome will also be similar in that some form national structure and regulation will be put into place, and we remain encouraged by the Crown’s acknowledgement that the BNPL segment adds value; and*Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment of nearly 550% over the past eight months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

*UK BNPL Review Should Add Structure: Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] British business and the entire Buy-Now, Pay-Later (BNPL) segment is to be reviewed by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) – not dis-similar to those reviews conducted in Australia. We believe that the outcome will also be similar in that some form national structure and regulation will be put into place, and we remain encouraged by the Crown’s acknowledgement that the BNPL segment adds value; and*Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment of nearly 550% over the past eight months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

Asia Consumer Research, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Asia Consumer Research

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this Smartkarma Original Series report, we look at how the pet care industry in Asia, specifically China, grew 10x fold in the past 10 years and what sets it apart. Compared to the west, the pet care industry is a relatively recent development in emerging Asia. It is still early days of growth and evolution for the various segments of the industry and local players are still trying to establish a meaningful presence in most categories. However, the unique social/demographic factors that have spurred the pet boom in China has also opened up new product needs that are being addressed by local players - smart petting gadgets being one of them. Investors have been active in segments where local players have established a strong presence, like medical facilities; an IPO is reportedly on the anvil in 2021. This could attract more market attention to this high-growth sector especially if investors get an option to ride the sector growth. 
What is original about this report? In this report, we analyse the data available on Pet ownership in Asia, predominantly China, and compare it with the US to understand and assess the scope of growth for Asia's pet care sector. We study the underlying factors driving the pet boom and spending spree in China and discuss the various segments of the pet care industry and highlight emerging trends and pockets of opportunity. Lastly, we scan the Asia-based branded pet industry space in each segment, to select and study players that have built a meaningful presence in the market place. We see attractive growth potential for many of the early entrants - listed and unlisted- in the sector. We believe there is room for more branded players to enter the industry and tap into the existing and emerging product white spaces.

In this Smartkarma Original Series report, we look at how the pet care industry in Asia, specifically China, grew 10x fold in the past 10 years and what sets it apart. Compared to the west, the pet care industry is a relatively recent development in emerging Asia. It is still early days of growth and evolution for the various segments of the industry and local players are still trying to establish a meaningful presence in most categories. However, the unique social/demographic factors that have spurred the pet boom in China has also opened up new product needs that are being addressed by local players - smart petting gadgets being one of them. Investors have been active in segments where local players have established a strong presence, like medical facilities; an IPO is reportedly on the anvil in 2021. This could attract more market attention to this high-growth sector especially if investors get an option to ride the sector growth. 
What is original about this report? In this report, we analyse the data available on Pet ownership in Asia, predominantly China, and compare it with the US to understand and assess the scope of growth for Asia's pet care sector. We study the underlying factors driving the pet boom and spending spree in China and discuss the various segments of the pet care industry and highlight emerging trends and pockets of opportunity. Lastly, we scan the Asia-based branded pet industry space in each segment, to select and study players that have built a meaningful presence in the market place. We see attractive growth potential for many of the early entrants - listed and unlisted- in the sector. We believe there is room for more branded players to enter the industry and tap into the existing and emerging product white spaces.

Pet Care Sector in Asia: Saga Has Just Started. Opportunities Galore.

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya Corp (7741 JP)</a> reported 3QFY03/21 results on Thursday (28th January) which saw revenues growing at a marginal 0.3% YoY while operating profits increased at a stellar 20.4% YoY during the quarter. The reported revenues and OP beat consensus estimates by 1.3% and 9.8% respectively.With the pandemic outbreak, Hoya’s revenues and operating profit declined YoY for three consecutive quarters, and YoY improvement in December quarter shows that the earnings are recovering. We discuss the details below.

Hoya Corp (7741 JP) reported 3QFY03/21 results on Thursday (28th January) which saw revenues growing at a marginal 0.3% YoY while operating profits increased at a stellar 20.4% YoY during the quarter. The reported revenues and OP beat consensus estimates by 1.3% and 9.8% respectively.With the pandemic outbreak, Hoya’s revenues and operating profit declined YoY for three consecutive quarters, and YoY improvement in December quarter shows that the earnings are recovering. We discuss the details below.

Hoya 3Q Results: Earnings Beat Consensus and Point to Recovery Ahead

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

Spotify 4Q20: Just Trust Us

Spotify printed an OK quarter paired with awful guidance for 2021, especially given that its excuses for missing guidance were they reasons they...

Aaron Gabin

Apple to Invest $3.6 Billion in Kia Motors: HMC Group Has Come a Long Way from the Sir Charles Ads

It has been reported in the local media that Apple Inc (AAPL US) plans to invest 4 trillion won ($3.6 billion) as a part of a collaboration with...

Douglas Kim

Tencent Holdings - UK Speed Bump

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Tencent's Afterpay British business and BNPL segment being reviewed by FCA – not dis-similar to Australia. Review should lead to...

Thomas J. Monaco

Pet Care Sector in Asia: Saga Has Just Started. Opportunities Galore.

Asia pet care industry is in the early stages of growth. Attractive product white spaces for new entrants. Notable Asia based players profiled....

Devi Subhakesan

Hoya 3Q Results: Earnings Beat Consensus and Point to Recovery Ahead

Hoya reported 3QFY03/21 results on Thursday (28th January) which saw revenues growing at a marginal 0.3% YoY while operating profits increased at a...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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