Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The FOMC cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp, acknowledging that enough progress has occurred toward reaching the 2% target for core PCE inflation, while the labor market has cooled.</li>
<li>We were right on inflation and direction of rates since 2021 (so have differed with the Fed). Now, we agree that two more 25bp rate cuts will occur in 2024. </li>
<li>Core PCE inflation will be slow to moderate further, so allowing only another 50bp of cuts by end-2024. The FF rate should end 2025 at 3.5%, as RGDP grows 2.5%. </li>
</ul>


The FOMC cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp, acknowledging that enough progress has occurred toward reaching the 2% target for core PCE inflation, while the labor market has cooled.
We were right on inflation and direction of rates since 2021 (so have differed with the Fed). Now, we agree that two more 25bp rate cuts will occur in 2024. 
Core PCE inflation will be slow to moderate further, so allowing only another 50bp of cuts by end-2024. The FF rate should end 2025 at 3.5%, as RGDP grows 2.5%. 


US: FOMC's 50bp Cut Should Avert Recession But Keep Inflation Elevated

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC's U.S. Production Strategy Achieves Major Milestone - Begins Production of Apple A16 Chips in Arizona</li>
<li>Reports of Apple's Disappointing Initial iPhone 16 Sales Data; Key Taiwan Suppliers Top Losers Recently</li>
<li>Samsung Falling Behind TSMC - New Report of Low Yields Continuing to Plague Samsung's 3nm AI Processors</li>
</ul>


TSMC's U.S. Production Strategy Achieves Major Milestone - Begins Production of Apple A16 Chips in Arizona
Reports of Apple's Disappointing Initial iPhone 16 Sales Data; Key Taiwan Suppliers Top Losers Recently
Samsung Falling Behind TSMC - New Report of Low Yields Continuing to Plague Samsung's 3nm AI Processors


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Apple Arizona Production Milestone, Samsung 3nm Yield Still Weak Vs. TSMC

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Apple iPhone 16 pre-orders weak and Questions on Apple Intelligence remain</li>
<li>Big software investor days. Expect AI to feature big on hype, but what to expect from TAM to ARR to products?</li>
<li>Semis: Samsung challenges, Intel relief but pressures remain, TSM momentum, this time with ByteDance </li>
</ul>


Apple iPhone 16 pre-orders weak and Questions on Apple Intelligence remain
Big software investor days. Expect AI to feature big on hype, but what to expect from TAM to ARR to products?
Semis: Samsung challenges, Intel relief but pressures remain, TSM momentum, this time with ByteDance 


TMT Daily:Apple, TikTok, PINS, Semis (TSM, Samsung, Intel), Software (EA, CRM, CRWD, WDAY, HUBS),EVs

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall apps decide to accept WeChat Pay, the online payment way from Tencent.</li>
<li>JD announced that it will raise employee salaries up to 20 months within two years.</li>
<li>Hive Box, the market dominator of parcel locker in China, submitted its IPO proposal.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall apps decide to accept WeChat Pay, the online payment way from Tencent.
JD announced that it will raise employee salaries up to 20 months within two years.
Hive Box, the market dominator of parcel locker in China, submitted its IPO proposal.


China Consumption Weekly (16 Sep 2024): Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, Kuai, Hive Box

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>ATAT US/TCOM US: Hotel demand grow steadily in 1st week of September, with leisure travel being the main driver(+/+)</li>
<li>AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: Pre-registrations for iPhone 16 series in China well below prior models.(-/+/+)</li>
<li>AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: Huawei Mate XT receives positive commentary for design (-/-/+)</li>
</ul>


ATAT US/TCOM US: Hotel demand grow steadily in 1st week of September, with leisure travel being the main driver(+/+)
AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: Pre-registrations for iPhone 16 series in China well below prior models.(-/+/+)
AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: Huawei Mate XT receives positive commentary for design (-/-/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/1211 HK/9863 HK/NIO US/ LI US

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

US: FOMC's 50bp Cut Should Avert Recession But Keep Inflation Elevated

FOMC cuts rates by 50bp, predicts two more 25bp cuts in 2024 due to progress on inflation but cooling labor market. We expect FF rate to end 2025...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Apple Arizona Production Milestone, Samsung 3nm Yield Still Weak Vs. TSMC

TSMC's U.S. production milestone with Apple A16 chips in Arizona. Reports of Apple's disappointing iPhone 16 sales. Samsung is still struggling...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TMT Daily:Apple, TikTok, PINS, Semis (TSM, Samsung, Intel), Software (EA, CRM, CRWD, WDAY, HUBS),EVs

Apple iPhone 16 pre-orders disappointing. Big software investor days AI hype and product expectations. Challenges for Samsung, Intel relief short...

Neil Campling

China Consumption Weekly (16 Sep 2024): Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, Kuai, Hive Box

Alibaba’s Taobao app and Tmall apps decide to accept WeChat Pay. JD will raise employee salaries up to 20 months within two years. Hive Box, a...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/1211 HK/9863 HK/NIO US/ LI US

Hotel demand in the US is increasing due to leisure travel, while pre-registrations for the iPhone 16 series in China are lower than previous...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US: FOMC's 50bp Cut Should Avert Recession But Keep Inflation Elevated

​FOMC cuts rates by 50bp, predicts two more 25bp cuts in 2024 due to progress on inflation but cooling labor market. We expect FF rate to end 2025...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Apple Arizona Production Milestone, Samsung 3nm Yield Still Weak Vs. TSMC

​TSMC's U.S. production milestone with Apple A16 chips in Arizona. Reports of Apple's disappointing iPhone 16 sales. Samsung is still struggling...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TMT Daily:Apple, TikTok, PINS, Semis (TSM, Samsung, Intel), Software (EA, CRM, CRWD, WDAY, HUBS),EVs

​Apple iPhone 16 pre-orders disappointing. Big software investor days AI hype and product expectations. Challenges for Samsung, Intel relief short...

Neil Campling

China Consumption Weekly (16 Sep 2024): Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, Kuai, Hive Box

Alibaba’s Taobao app and Tmall apps decide to accept WeChat Pay. JD will raise employee salaries up to 20 months within two years. Hive Box, a...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/1211 HK/9863 HK/NIO US/ LI US

​Hotel demand in the US is increasing due to leisure travel, while pre-registrations for the iPhone 16 series in China are lower than previous...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

FOMC cuts rates by 50bp, predicts two more 25bp cuts in 2024 due to progress on inflation but cooling labor market. We expect FF rate to end 2025...

TSMC's U.S. production milestone with Apple A16 chips in Arizona. Reports of Apple's disappointing iPhone 16 sales. Samsung is still struggling...

Apple iPhone 16 pre-orders disappointing. Big software investor days AI hype and product expectations. Challenges for Samsung, Intel relief short...

Hotel demand in the US is increasing due to leisure travel, while pre-registrations for the iPhone 16 series in China are lower than previous...