Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>This insight is a follow-up to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusions-who-is-ready-aug-2022" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:74615" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Aug 2022)</a> </li>
<li>At present, there are 53 names that satisfy all of these conditions and there are more names that are close to being in that group.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
This insight is a follow-up to TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Aug 2022) 
At present, there are 53 names that satisfy all of these conditions and there are more names that are close to being in that group.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2022)

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The stock is down 54% over the past year despite 41% revenue growth. We see 3 key drivers in 2022.   </li>
<li>Appier is growing rapidly in the US, a much bigger market than its home market of North Asia. </li>
<li>Appier is at the forefront of digital transformation, benefitting from structural DX of marketing functions and increased use of 1st party data.</li>
</ul>


The stock is down 54% over the past year despite 41% revenue growth. We see 3 key drivers in 2022.   
Appier is growing rapidly in the US, a much bigger market than its home market of North Asia. 
Appier is at the forefront of digital transformation, benefitting from structural DX of marketing functions and increased use of 1st party data.


Appier (4180 JP) - Eating the Cookie Crumbs

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ExaWizards’ financial disclosures and track record are relatively limited making it difficult to create high-confidence forecasts. </li>
<li>However, what little information there is points to explosive growth potential. </li>
<li>Whether that potential will be realised is a question but our analysis suggests that the company’s execution potential is good.</li>
</ul>


ExaWizards’ financial disclosures and track record are relatively limited making it difficult to create high-confidence forecasts. 
However, what little information there is points to explosive growth potential. 
Whether that potential will be realised is a question but our analysis suggests that the company’s execution potential is good.


ExaWizards IPO – Latent Potential Abound

<ul>
<li>Following a strong return to growth in 3Q Appier is up 28%.</li>
<li>The company generated a positive EBITDA for the first time as margins continue to improve. </li>
<li>In addition, it highlighted its reliance on first party data which shields it from moves such as Apple’s decision to stop 3rd party tracking.</li>
</ul>


Following a strong return to growth in 3Q Appier is up 28%.
The company generated a positive EBITDA for the first time as margins continue to improve. 
In addition, it highlighted its reliance on first party data which shields it from moves such as Apple’s decision to stop 3rd party tracking.


<div>
<ul>
<li>Money Forward’s stock price declined by 12% on the day following a weak Q3 earnings release. </li>
<li>
 The weaker revenue print was partially due to the lumpiness of revenue recognition in MF X (technology solutions), and lower ARPA growth in the core MF Business domain.  
</li>
<li>
We take a deeper look at the underlying SaaS metrics for MF Business and note some slowing in key KPIs.  
</li>
<li>
Nevertheless, we believe that the company is well placed to target mid-sized companies, which will ultimately drive higher ARR growth.   
</li>
<li>Even assuming a weaker NTM growth of 25%, we see 30% upside for the share price</li>
</ul>
</div>



Money Forward’s stock price declined by 12% on the day following a weak Q3 earnings release. 

 The weaker revenue print was partially due to the lumpiness of revenue recognition in MF X (technology solutions), and lower ARPA growth in the core MF Business domain.  


We take a deeper look at the underlying SaaS metrics for MF Business and note some slowing in key KPIs.  


Nevertheless, we believe that the company is well placed to target mid-sized companies, which will ultimately drive higher ARR growth.   

Even assuming a weaker NTM growth of 25%, we see 30% upside for the share price



Money Forward (3994) - 30% Upside Despite Slower Growth

Japan

Appier Group, Inc. provides artificial intelligence software as a service (AISaaS) services based on data-driven decisions. The Company offers data analysis for potential users predicting and acquiring, relationships building and maintaining, purchasing and action motivation, audience intelligence, and more. Appier Group serves clients across Asian.

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Appier Group (4180 JP)

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2022)

Appier Group, ArtSpark Holdings, and Chubu Steel Plate are interesting TOPIX Inclusion Pre-event names that are worth tracking over the next few...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ExaWizards IPO – Latent Potential Abound

What little information ExaWizards has disclosed points to explosive growth potential and although the margin of error is large, our analysis...

Mio Kato

Appier – A Little Bit Special

Appier generated a positive EBITDA for the first time in 3Q and returned to QoQ growth prompting a 28% share price gain but with REAL AI technology...

Mio Kato

Money Forward (3994) - 30% Upside Despite Slower Growth

We take a deeper look at the underlying SaaS metrics for MF Business and note some slowing in key KPIs. Even so, on a more conservative growth...

Mark Chadwick

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