Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We forecast Q4 consolidated revenue of ¥9.7bn (+27% YoY); Operating profit (OP) is expected to grow +129% YoY to ¥1.0bn in Q4</li>
<li>For FY25, we expect the company to guide for +25% revenue growth and OP +160% to ¥5.7bn, significantly ahead of the street estimate of ¥4.8bn.</li>
<li>Appier’s AI-powered solutions operate on top of generative AI models, utilizing proprietary data and analytics to enhance corporate online advertising efficiency.</li>
</ul>


We forecast Q4 consolidated revenue of ¥9.7bn (+27% YoY); Operating profit (OP) is expected to grow +129% YoY to ¥1.0bn in Q4
For FY25, we expect the company to guide for +25% revenue growth and OP +160% to ¥5.7bn, significantly ahead of the street estimate of ¥4.8bn.
Appier’s AI-powered solutions operate on top of generative AI models, utilizing proprietary data and analytics to enhance corporate online advertising efficiency.


Appier (4180) | Q4 Preview; Valuation Re-Rating Likely

<ul>
<li>In Q3 FY24, Appier achieved record-breaking revenue, reaching JPY 9.1 billion, marking a 28% year-over-year growth.</li>
<li>Operating income for Q3 surged by 2.5 times YoY to JPY 788 million, with the operating margin improving by 4.3 percentage points to 8.7%.</li>
<li>At less than 4x EV/Sales and 16x FY25 EBITDA the stock does not appear expensive.</li>
</ul>


In Q3 FY24, Appier achieved record-breaking revenue, reaching JPY 9.1 billion, marking a 28% year-over-year growth.
Operating income for Q3 surged by 2.5 times YoY to JPY 788 million, with the operating margin improving by 4.3 percentage points to 8.7%.
At less than 4x EV/Sales and 16x FY25 EBITDA the stock does not appear expensive.


<ul>
<li>Appier's Q3 demonstrated a 39% YoY revenue increase, reaching a record JPY7.1B. This was driven by substantial growth in the US/EMEA markets (117% YoY), customer expansion, and Digital Content growth.</li>
<li>Appier's gross margin expanded from 51.3% to 52.6% and the operating margin reached a historical high of 4.4%. Despite ongoing investments, EBITDA margins hit12.1%, showcasing strong operating leverage.</li>
<li>Appier's revised full-year outlook, with increased revenue target (JPY 26.2B), operating income (JPY0.70B), and EBITDA (JPY2.6B), exceeds consensus expectations by 1%, 11%, and 8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


Appier's Q3 demonstrated a 39% YoY revenue increase, reaching a record JPY7.1B. This was driven by substantial growth in the US/EMEA markets (117% YoY), customer expansion, and Digital Content growth.
Appier's gross margin expanded from 51.3% to 52.6% and the operating margin reached a historical high of 4.4%. Despite ongoing investments, EBITDA margins hit12.1%, showcasing strong operating leverage.
Appier's revised full-year outlook, with increased revenue target (JPY 26.2B), operating income (JPY0.70B), and EBITDA (JPY2.6B), exceeds consensus expectations by 1%, 11%, and 8%, respectively.


Appier (4180) | Key Drivers Behind Strong Q3 Performance

<ul>
<li>Appier's stock initially surged 20% following strong Q2 results but later declined 25%, influenced by small-cap stock volatility, AI-induced valuations, and e-commerce sensitivity.</li>
<li>The AI company's competitive position remains strong compared to Braze; the differing stock price performance and valuation suggests significant upside.</li>
<li>Appier's thesis remains intact and we expect the company to benefit from key trends in consumer marketing, first-party data and AI solutions.</li>
</ul>


Appier's stock initially surged 20% following strong Q2 results but later declined 25%, influenced by small-cap stock volatility, AI-induced valuations, and e-commerce sensitivity.
The AI company's competitive position remains strong compared to Braze; the differing stock price performance and valuation suggests significant upside.
Appier's thesis remains intact and we expect the company to benefit from key trends in consumer marketing, first-party data and AI solutions.


<ul>
<li>Strong Q2 results with revenue +42% yoy versus +33% in Q1</li>
<li>Gross margin expansion to 51.3% on improving AI algorithm performance</li>
<li>Stock down around 20% over past couple of months, No change to bullish growth forecasts.</li>
</ul>


Strong Q2 results with revenue +42% yoy versus +33% in Q1
Gross margin expansion to 51.3% on improving AI algorithm performance
Stock down around 20% over past couple of months, No change to bullish growth forecasts.


Japan

Appier Group, Inc. provides artificial intelligence software as a service (AISaaS) services based on data-driven decisions. The Company offers data analysis for potential users predicting and acquiring, relationships building and maintaining, purchasing and action motivation, audience intelligence, and more. Appier Group serves clients across Asian.

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Appier Group (4180 JP)

Appier (4180) | Q4 Preview; Valuation Re-Rating Likely

Article forecasts strong revenue and profit growth for Q4 and FY25 for Appier, an AI-powered advertising solutions company, exceeding street...

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) | Record Quarter

Appier reports record-breaking revenue in Q3 FY24 with a 28% YoY growth, showing strong financial performance and potential for investment.

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) | Key Drivers Behind Strong Q3 Performance

Appier's Q3 revenue increased by 39% YoY, driven by growth in the US/EMEA markets and customer expansion. Gross margin expanded and operating...

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) | The Ups and Downs

Appier's stock has declined due to small-cap stock volatility and AI-induced valuations, despite its strong competitive position and potential...

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) | Be Happier

Strong Q2 results with revenue +42% yoy versus +33% in Q1, Revenue accelerates on strong e-commerce, digital marketing. Stock has pulled back to...

Mark Chadwick

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Appier (4180) | Q4 Preview; Valuation Re-Rating Likely

​Article forecasts strong revenue and profit growth for Q4 and FY25 for Appier, an AI-powered advertising solutions company, exceeding street...

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) | Record Quarter

​Appier reports record-breaking revenue in Q3 FY24 with a 28% YoY growth, showing strong financial performance and potential for investment.

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) | Key Drivers Behind Strong Q3 Performance

​Appier's Q3 revenue increased by 39% YoY, driven by growth in the US/EMEA markets and customer expansion. Gross margin expanded and operating...

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) | The Ups and Downs

​Appier's stock has declined due to small-cap stock volatility and AI-induced valuations, despite its strong competitive position and potential...

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) | Be Happier

Strong Q2 results with revenue +42% yoy versus +33% in Q1, Revenue accelerates on strong e-commerce, digital marketing. Stock has pulled back to...

Mark Chadwick

Article forecasts strong revenue and profit growth for Q4 and FY25 for Appier, an AI-powered advertising solutions company, exceeding street...

Appier reports record-breaking revenue in Q3 FY24 with a 28% YoY growth, showing strong financial performance and potential for investment.

Appier's Q3 revenue increased by 39% YoY, driven by growth in the US/EMEA markets and customer expansion. Gross margin expanded and operating...

Appier's stock has declined due to small-cap stock volatility and AI-induced valuations, despite its strong competitive position and potential...