Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q3, Money Forward demonstrated continued strong performance, with consolidated net sales posting 31% growth year-on-year to ¥9.81 billion</li>
<li>EBITDA for the cumulative nine months stands at ¥1.48 billion, comfortably within the company’s full year guidance range of ¥1-3 billion.</li>
<li>We now see a very modest 2% upside to our target price of ¥6,440, based on an 8x forward revenue multiple. </li>
</ul>


In Q3, Money Forward demonstrated continued strong performance, with consolidated net sales posting 31% growth year-on-year to ¥9.81 billion
EBITDA for the cumulative nine months stands at ¥1.48 billion, comfortably within the company’s full year guidance range of ¥1-3 billion.
We now see a very modest 2% upside to our target price of ¥6,440, based on an 8x forward revenue multiple. 


Money Forward (3994) | Q3 Priced In; Look for Pull-Back

<ul>
<li>With results due October 15, we expect net sales growth of 29% YoY, bringing 9-month revenue on track to meet full-year guidance.</li>
<li>Money Forward’s businesses are Japan-centric, creating a steady revenue stream insulated from yen volatility and uncertain global macro conditions.</li>
<li>By targeting larger corporations, Money Forward aims to unlock substantial cross-selling potential, supporting long-term growth and market penetration.</li>
</ul>


With results due October 15, we expect net sales growth of 29% YoY, bringing 9-month revenue on track to meet full-year guidance.
Money Forward’s businesses are Japan-centric, creating a steady revenue stream insulated from yen volatility and uncertain global macro conditions.
By targeting larger corporations, Money Forward aims to unlock substantial cross-selling potential, supporting long-term growth and market penetration.


Money Forward (3994) | Q3 Results and Strategic Expansion Fueling Long-Term Upside

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">Freee KK (4478 JP)</a> offers cloud-based online accounting and HR/Payroll software to small and medium businesses (SMBs) in Japan. The company operates a subscription-based revenue model.</li>
<li>Freee reported its first-ever profits recently and we expect continued improvement in freee’s profitability driven by its strong business model vs MF whose business model has started to breakdown.</li>
<li>Freee’s current valuation multiples are cheap and there is significant upside to the current share price, hence we recommend making an entry.</li>
</ul>



Freee KK (4478 JP) offers cloud-based online accounting and HR/Payroll software to small and medium businesses (SMBs) in Japan. The company operates a subscription-based revenue model.
Freee reported its first-ever profits recently and we expect continued improvement in freee’s profitability driven by its strong business model vs MF whose business model has started to breakdown.
Freee’s current valuation multiples are cheap and there is significant upside to the current share price, hence we recommend making an entry.


2025 High Conviction: Freee KK – Becoming Free From Losses; Significant Upside

<ul>
<li>Amidst the volatility in the Japanese yen, companies like Money Forward, with a strong domestic revenue base and minimal exposure to forex risk, present an attractive investment opportunity.</li>
<li>Despite broader market uncertainties, Money Forward continues to demonstrate impressive growth, with its corporate ARR surging by 38% YoY in the most recent quarter, signaling sustained momentum.</li>
<li>The recent agreement to divest 49% of its non-core B2C segment, Money Forward ME, underscores the significant undervaluation of its core operations. </li>
</ul>


Amidst the volatility in the Japanese yen, companies like Money Forward, with a strong domestic revenue base and minimal exposure to forex risk, present an attractive investment opportunity.
Despite broader market uncertainties, Money Forward continues to demonstrate impressive growth, with its corporate ARR surging by 38% YoY in the most recent quarter, signaling sustained momentum.
The recent agreement to divest 49% of its non-core B2C segment, Money Forward ME, underscores the significant undervaluation of its core operations. 


Money Forward (3994): A Must-Buy Amid Yen Volatility

<ul>
<li>Money Forward released Q2 results post market close on Friday. Revenue growth of +41% YoY beat our estimates by 7%.</li>
<li>We highlight continued solid financial metrics supported by growth in SaaS ARR and in particular mid-sized corporate growth.</li>
<li>No change to our bullish long-term view on the company. Stock has run up around 11% ahead of earnings but we see further 20%+ upside from here. </li>
</ul>


Money Forward released Q2 results post market close on Friday. Revenue growth of +41% YoY beat our estimates by 7%.
We highlight continued solid financial metrics supported by growth in SaaS ARR and in particular mid-sized corporate growth.
No change to our bullish long-term view on the company. Stock has run up around 11% ahead of earnings but we see further 20%+ upside from here. 


Japan

Money Forward, Inc. develops mobile application software. The Company produces automatic household account book softwares, household account book application softwares, and other products. Money Forward also provides personal financial management, cloud based accounting solutions, and other services.

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Money Forward (3994 JP)

Money Forward (3994) | Q3 Priced In; Look for Pull-Back

Money Forward's Q3 performance shows strong growth with net sales up 31% year-on-year, EBITDA at ¥1.48 billion, and a 2% upside to target price of...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Q3 Results and Strategic Expansion Fueling Long-Term Upside

Upcoming Q3 Results: With results due October 15, we expect net sales growth of 29% YoY, bringing 9-month revenue on track to meet full-year guidance.

Mark Chadwick

2025 High Conviction: Freee KK – Becoming Free From Losses; Significant Upside

Freee has proved that its business model is solid vs Money Forward by beginning to make profits without compromising on growth. freee's shares are...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Money Forward (3994): A Must-Buy Amid Yen Volatility

Japanese fintech company Money Forward presents an attractive investment opportunity with strong domestic revenue, impressive growth, and...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Metronomic Growth

Money Forward's Q2 results show strong revenue growth, particularly in SaaS ARR and mid-sized corporate growth, exceeding estimates by 7%. Bullish...

Mark Chadwick

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Money Forward (3994) | Q3 Priced In; Look for Pull-Back

​Money Forward's Q3 performance shows strong growth with net sales up 31% year-on-year, EBITDA at ¥1.48 billion, and a 2% upside to target price of...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Q3 Results and Strategic Expansion Fueling Long-Term Upside

Upcoming Q3 Results: With results due October 15, we expect net sales growth of 29% YoY, bringing 9-month revenue on track to meet full-year guidance.

Mark Chadwick

2025 High Conviction: Freee KK – Becoming Free From Losses; Significant Upside

Freee has proved that its business model is solid vs Money Forward by beginning to make profits without compromising on growth. freee's shares are...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Money Forward (3994): A Must-Buy Amid Yen Volatility

​Japanese fintech company Money Forward presents an attractive investment opportunity with strong domestic revenue, impressive growth, and...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Metronomic Growth

​Money Forward's Q2 results show strong revenue growth, particularly in SaaS ARR and mid-sized corporate growth, exceeding estimates by 7%. Bullish...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward's Q3 performance shows strong growth with net sales up 31% year-on-year, EBITDA at ¥1.48 billion, and a 2% upside to target price of...

Japanese fintech company Money Forward presents an attractive investment opportunity with strong domestic revenue, impressive growth, and...

Money Forward's Q2 results show strong revenue growth, particularly in SaaS ARR and mid-sized corporate growth, exceeding estimates by 7%. Bullish...