Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Money Forward released Q2 results post market close on Friday. Revenue growth of +41% YoY beat our estimates by 7%.</li>
<li>We highlight continued solid financial metrics supported by growth in SaaS ARR and in particular mid-sized corporate growth.</li>
<li>No change to our bullish long-term view on the company. Stock has run up around 11% ahead of earnings but we see further 20%+ upside from here. </li>
</ul>


Money Forward released Q2 results post market close on Friday. Revenue growth of +41% YoY beat our estimates by 7%.
We highlight continued solid financial metrics supported by growth in SaaS ARR and in particular mid-sized corporate growth.
No change to our bullish long-term view on the company. Stock has run up around 11% ahead of earnings but we see further 20%+ upside from here. 


<ul>
<li>Money Forward’s share price has declined by around 16% since reporting Q1 results.</li>
<li>The company will report Q2 results in early July. We expect continued solid momentum</li>
<li>We believe the stock price has around 30% upside potential to our target price of ¥6,600</li>
</ul>


Money Forward’s share price has declined by around 16% since reporting Q1 results.
The company will report Q2 results in early July. We expect continued solid momentum
We believe the stock price has around 30% upside potential to our target price of ¥6,600


Money Forward (3994) | Looking Forward to Q2

<ul>
<li>Money Forward reported Q1 results. Net sales rose 40% YoY to 9.5 billion yen</li>
<li>Money Forward saw a big jump in profitability, which puts the company on track to meet full year guidance</li>
<li>The stock has risen around 30% since January. We still see around 7% upside to our target valuation </li>
</ul>


Money Forward reported Q1 results. Net sales rose 40% YoY to 9.5 billion yen
Money Forward saw a big jump in profitability, which puts the company on track to meet full year guidance
The stock has risen around 30% since January. We still see around 7% upside to our target valuation 


<ul>
<li>Results flash: Q4 sales +42%; Adjusted EBITDA at record high of 1.2 billion yen</li>
<li>Key focus remains Business SaaS where sales rose +52% YoY to 5.5 billion</li>
<li>Business earnings driven by acquisition of medium-sized corporates (+40% YoY) and higher ARPU (+22% YoY)</li>
</ul>


Results flash: Q4 sales +42%; Adjusted EBITDA at record high of 1.2 billion yen
Key focus remains Business SaaS where sales rose +52% YoY to 5.5 billion
Business earnings driven by acquisition of medium-sized corporates (+40% YoY) and higher ARPU (+22% YoY)


<ul>
<li>Since releasing Q3 results, Money Forward’s stock price has fallen from 4,800 yen to the present 4,000 yen.</li>
<li>Results on Friday could herald a stronger outlook for the share price. The market is fixated on quarterly earnings and ad spend - these should improve sequentially.</li>
<li>Money Forward will release guidance for the coming fiscal year, which could see the company turn profitable at the EBITDA level.</li>
</ul>


Since releasing Q3 results, Money Forward’s stock price has fallen from 4,800 yen to the present 4,000 yen.
Results on Friday could herald a stronger outlook for the share price. The market is fixated on quarterly earnings and ad spend - these should improve sequentially.
Money Forward will release guidance for the coming fiscal year, which could see the company turn profitable at the EBITDA level.


Money Forward (3394) | Looking Forward - Q4 Preview

Japan

NSD CO., LTD is an independent computer software development company. The Company's products include operating systems, business software for financial industry, and process control systems.  NSD also provides computer services including managing computer systems and data entry. The Company also sells computers and its peripheral equipment.

Justsystems Corporation develops and sells computer application software. The Company's products include Ichitaro, a Japanese language word processing program.  Justsystems also develops network software.

Sansan, Inc. provides mobile application software solutions. The Company offers business card management service by scanning the cards from scanner and smartphone. Sansan provides its services throughout Japan.

GungHo Online Entertainment, Inc. develops and distributes Internet games. The Company also develops applications for smartphones.

freee K.K. develops software products. The Company produces cloud based accounting softwares, automatic online accounting systems, and other products. freee provides its services throughout Japan.

Systena Corporation develops firmware for mobile telecommunications. The Company also develops web application software for network systems, computer game software, and systems for financial firms.  Systena provides network consulting services as well.

PKSHA Technology Inc. provides software development services. The Company develops and manages image recognition, universal dialogue, and customer behavior forecast software. PKSHA Technology serves clients in Japan.

COLOPL, Inc. provides game platform and applications for smart phones.

Cybozu, Inc. develops and markets Internet and Intranet application software for businesses.  The Company's main products include Cybozu Office, a web-based groupware, which is collaboration software for information sharing and communication among workgroups and companies.

FUJI SOFT INCORPORATED is an independent software developer, specializing in communications and machine control software, business application software for bank and insurance companies, and operating system software.  Fuji Soft also installs, manages, and maintains computer systems.  The Company develops and sells word processing packaged software and also provides internet service.

QAD Inc. provides supply-chain-enabled enterprise resource planning software for mid-range and large multinational manufacturing companies. The Company offers software solutions for global management of resources and information to allow manufacturers to reduce order fulfillment cycle times and inventories, improve operating efficiencies, and measure company performance criteria.

YGSOFT Inc. develops financial and management software products for electricity industry. The company also provides computer software and hardware system integration and technology consulting services.

Neusoft Corp. designs, develops, licenses, and supports a variety  of computer software products, and provides system integration solutions. The company also provides medical systems solutions.

Beijing E-Hualu Information Technology Co., Ltd operates big data information management system. The Company develops smart transportation system, information public safety system, health care system, and more. Beijing E-Hualu Information Technology offers services worldwide.

Beijing E-Hualu Information Technology (300212 CH)

Aisino Co., Ltd. manufactures electronic and telecommunication equipment, as well as provides system integration and other related services. The Company's products include anti-fraud tax control systems and IC cards.

Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co.,Ltd. develops and sells management information system software for the Hotel industry. The Company also provides IT system integration and IT technology support services.

Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co., Ltd. (002153 CH)

Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co., Ltd.

Newland Digital Technology Co.,Ltd. manufactures electronic transaction equipment. The Company produces point of sale terminals and other products. Newland Digital Technology also operates software development, real estate development, and other businesses.

Fujian Newland Computer Co, Ltd. (000997 CH)

MeridianLink, Inc. operates as a software development company. The Company develops software that web-based solutions and systems integrations for the financial sector such as web-based account opening and funding transaction services. MeridianLink serves customers in the United States.

Intellect Design Arena Ltd is a financial technology firm. The Company caters to banks, insurance companies and other financial service firms.

Beijing Jetsen Technology Company Limited designs, develops and implements audio and video integrated solutions.  The Company's main products are audio and video integrated solutions.

Money Forward, Inc. develops mobile application software. The Company produces automatic household account book softwares, household account book application softwares, and other products. Money Forward also provides personal financial management, cloud based accounting solutions, and other services.

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Money Forward (3994 JP)

Money Forward (3994) | Metronomic Growth

Money Forward's Q2 results show strong revenue growth, particularly in SaaS ARR and mid-sized corporate growth, exceeding estimates by 7%. Bullish...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Looking Forward to Q2

Money Forward's stock price has dropped 16% post-Q1 results, but Q2 results expected to show solid momentum with potential 30% upside to target...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Net Sales +40%

Money Forward's Q1 results show a 40% increase in net sales, leading to a significant rise in profitability and a positive outlook for meeting...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Best Quarter Ever

Strong Q4 sales growth and record high Adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion yen. Business SaaS sales up 52% YoY. Acquisition of medium-sized corporates...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3394) | Looking Forward - Q4 Preview

Money Forward's stock price has dropped since Q3 results, but upcoming guidance and improved earnings could lead to a stronger outlook.

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Money Forward (3994) | Metronomic Growth

​Money Forward's Q2 results show strong revenue growth, particularly in SaaS ARR and mid-sized corporate growth, exceeding estimates by 7%. Bullish...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Looking Forward to Q2

​Money Forward's stock price has dropped 16% post-Q1 results, but Q2 results expected to show solid momentum with potential 30% upside to target...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Net Sales +40%

​Money Forward's Q1 results show a 40% increase in net sales, leading to a significant rise in profitability and a positive outlook for meeting...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Best Quarter Ever

​Strong Q4 sales growth and record high Adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion yen. Business SaaS sales up 52% YoY. Acquisition of medium-sized corporates...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3394) | Looking Forward - Q4 Preview

​Money Forward's stock price has dropped since Q3 results, but upcoming guidance and improved earnings could lead to a stronger outlook.

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward's Q2 results show strong revenue growth, particularly in SaaS ARR and mid-sized corporate growth, exceeding estimates by 7%. Bullish...

Money Forward's stock price has dropped 16% post-Q1 results, but Q2 results expected to show solid momentum with potential 30% upside to target...

Money Forward's Q1 results show a 40% increase in net sales, leading to a significant rise in profitability and a positive outlook for meeting...

Strong Q4 sales growth and record high Adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion yen. Business SaaS sales up 52% YoY. Acquisition of medium-sized corporates...

Money Forward's stock price has dropped since Q3 results, but upcoming guidance and improved earnings could lead to a stronger outlook.