Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Over 20 years experience in equities and asset management in Asia and Japan. Qualified CFA with experience analyzing companies as a buy-side analyst. In-depth knowledge of company fundamental analysis, corporate governance and valuations.

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>Money Forward’s stock price declined by 12% on the day following a weak Q3 earnings release. </li>
<li>
 The weaker revenue print was partially due to the lumpiness of revenue recognition in MF X (technology solutions), and lower ARPA growth in the core MF Business domain.  
</li>
<li>
We take a deeper look at the underlying SaaS metrics for MF Business and note some slowing in key KPIs.  
</li>
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Nevertheless, we believe that the company is well placed to target mid-sized companies, which will ultimately drive higher ARR growth.   
</li>
<li>Even assuming a weaker NTM growth of 25%, we see 30% upside for the share price</li>
</ul>
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Money Forward’s stock price declined by 12% on the day following a weak Q3 earnings release. 

 The weaker revenue print was partially due to the lumpiness of revenue recognition in MF X (technology solutions), and lower ARPA growth in the core MF Business domain.  


We take a deeper look at the underlying SaaS metrics for MF Business and note some slowing in key KPIs.  


Nevertheless, we believe that the company is well placed to target mid-sized companies, which will ultimately drive higher ARR growth.   

Even assuming a weaker NTM growth of 25%, we see 30% upside for the share price



Money Forward (3994) - 30% Upside Despite Slower Growth