Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our index suggests pricing momentum remains depressed, but stable in Q3; fuel prices have begun to rise from Q2 lows, but probably don't offer much lift to earnings now</li>
<li>We looked at intra-Asian carrier TS Lines (which applied to list its shares in Hong Kong in April) and provided a quick update on market conditions in the Intra-Asian trade</li>
<li>Shares of a few container shipping companies -- including Evergreen Marine of Taiwan -- have performed well YTD in 2023; we remain positive on the sector's medium-term outlook</li>
</ul>


Our index suggests pricing momentum remains depressed, but stable in Q3; fuel prices have begun to rise from Q2 lows, but probably don't offer much lift to earnings now
We looked at intra-Asian carrier TS Lines (which applied to list its shares in Hong Kong in April) and provided a quick update on market conditions in the Intra-Asian trade
Shares of a few container shipping companies -- including Evergreen Marine of Taiwan -- have performed well YTD in 2023; we remain positive on the sector's medium-term outlook


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Fuel (Barely) Lower Y/Y | (September 2023)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US PPI has steadily eased over the past 15 months, and lower transportation costs have helped</li>
<li>US long-distance trucking and international air freight costs have fallen dramatically from the peak, but ocean freight has surprisingly remained close to peak levels</li>
<li>We believe falling transportation costs are unlikely to provide "tailwinds" for much longer</li>
</ul>


US PPI has steadily eased over the past 15 months, and lower transportation costs have helped
US long-distance trucking and international air freight costs have fallen dramatically from the peak, but ocean freight has surprisingly remained close to peak levels
We believe falling transportation costs are unlikely to provide "tailwinds" for much longer


US PPI: Tailwinds from Transportation Price Collapse Set to Subside in H2 2023

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> has been a high conviction long since early November when it reported Q2 earnings and a buyback. Buyback executed, they upped the dividend.</li>
<li>At Q3, earnings were downgraded from ¥700bn to ¥650bn on container biz weakness. FY22 ended at ¥695bn. March 2024 had been forecast at ¥106bn, the forecast is now ¥120bn.</li>
<li>The dividend has been "lowered" to ¥200/share, which is higher than expected. That's for this year.</li>
</ul>



Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) has been a high conviction long since early November when it reported Q2 earnings and a buyback. Buyback executed, they upped the dividend.
At Q3, earnings were downgraded from ¥700bn to ¥650bn on container biz weakness. FY22 ended at ¥695bn. March 2024 had been forecast at ¥106bn, the forecast is now ¥120bn.
The dividend has been "lowered" to ¥200/share, which is higher than expected. That's for this year.


KLINE (9107) - Salutary Earnings, Decent Div, Strong Forecast, and Flow To Come

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maersk's Q1 earnings were solid, despite plummeting container rates and volumes. Annualizing Q1 Net Income would give RoE of about 17%, which is a healthy level, in our view. </li>
<li>Q1 EBITDA of US$4 bn is equivalent to 36% to 50% of full-year guidance, which remains unchanged. Maersk indicated Q1 will likely be its most profitable quarter in 2023.</li>
<li>Maersk's result reinforces our view that container rates are bottoming. A related takeaway is that a slowing goods inflation rate could lose a tailwind it's enjoyed since last October.</li>
</ul>


Maersk's Q1 earnings were solid, despite plummeting container rates and volumes. Annualizing Q1 Net Income would give RoE of about 17%, which is a healthy level, in our view. 
Q1 EBITDA of US$4 bn is equivalent to 36% to 50% of full-year guidance, which remains unchanged. Maersk indicated Q1 will likely be its most profitable quarter in 2023.
Maersk's result reinforces our view that container rates are bottoming. A related takeaway is that a slowing goods inflation rate could lose a tailwind it's enjoyed since last October.


Maersk Q1: Earnings Fine | Guidance Intact | Takeaways for Container Shipping (And Inflation)

<ul>
<li>Our measures of momentum and profitability suggest industry bottomed in Q1 2023</li>
<li>In addition, shares of container shipping stocks have stopped reacting to (plentiful) bad news</li>
<li>Outcome of ongoing rate negotiations and Q1 earnings calls will drive near-term performance</li>
</ul>


Our measures of momentum and profitability suggest industry bottomed in Q1 2023
In addition, shares of container shipping stocks have stopped reacting to (plentiful) bad news
Outcome of ongoing rate negotiations and Q1 earnings calls will drive near-term performance


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Container Shipping: Momentum Bottomed | Shares Stabilized | Focus on May News

Denmark

A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S operates as an integrated transport and logistics company. The Company offers container vessels, supply ships, special vessels, terminals, tug boat activities and reefer container box manufacturing. A.P. Moller-Maersk serves clients worldwide.

D/S Norden A/S is an international shipping company.  The Company operates a fleet of modern bulk vessels and tankers consisting of company owned vessels and long-term and short-term chartered cargo ships.  D/S Norden transports commodities such as coal, fertilizer, grain, sugar, and steels, as well as crude oil and other liquids.  The Company operates worldwide.

DFDS A/S provides passenger and freight shipping services, and offers shipping related logistics solutions.  The Company focuses on two business divisions: DFDS Tor Line operates roro liner traffic in the North Sea, and DFDS Seaways runs overnight cruise ferries between cities in Northern Europe.  DFDS sells to customers with large shipping requirements and to car traveling tourists.

DSV A/S is the parent company for a group of companies that offer transport and logistics.   The Group provides truck, ship, and plane transport services, as well as warehousing and logistic services.  DSV operates in Europe, North America, and the Far East.

DSV A/S provides transport and logistics services. The Company offers road, marine, and air transport services, as well as warehousing, purchase order management, and other logistic solutions. DSV serves customers worldwide.

Kobenhavns Lufthavne A/S (Copenhagen Airports A/S - CPH) owns and operates Kastrup, the international airport in Copenhagen, and Roskilde airport.  The Company provides traffic management, maintenance, and security services, as well as manages the Airport Shopping Center and airport projects.  Kobenhavns Lufthavne also has investments in airports in Mexico, England, and China.

Vestas Wind Systems A/S develops, manufactures, and markets wind turbines that generate electricity. The Company installs and maintenance turbines. Vestas Wind Systems serves customers worldwide.

Rockwool International A/S develops and produces stone wool, a fiber made from melted volcanic rock, and stone-wool-based products such as insulation and fire protection and noise and vibration control products.  The Company's products line also includes acoustic ceilings, facade panels, and horticultural substrates.  Rockwool produces in several countries and sells worldwide.

ISS A/S provides cleaning, office support, property, catering, and integrated facility services. The Company offers security, facility management, change management, space management, and consulting services.

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd offers marine freight transportation services.  The Company offers container shipping, dry bulk shipping, logistics services, freight forwarding, and terminal and container leasing services internationally.  COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd operates container ships and terminals, and manufactures shipping containers.

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. operates marine cargo and passenger transportation around the world.  The Company provides ocean liner, bulk carrier, car carrier, unscheduled specialized carrier, and energy transportation services. The Company also offers insurance, warehousing, and land transportation services.  Items transported include automobile, grain, petroleum, coal, iron ore, and wood chip.

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha mainly provides marine transportation services and transportation management solution from international hub ports to both domestic and international ports. The Company operates container transportation, tramp and specialized carriers, and logistics and cruise lines. Nippon Yusen offers scheduled and unscheduled transportation services around the world.

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

Evergreen Marine Corp. (Taiwan) Ltd. transports freight by ships. The Company operates container ships to move freight throughout the world. Evergreen Marine has interests in terminals, airline operations and motor freight transportation, as well as container manufacturing.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. provides marine transportation, warehousing, and cargo handling services.  The Company operates container ship, specialized carrier, oil tankers, and ferry.  Items transported include coal, iron ore, grain, logs, aluminum, cement, industrial salt, copper ore, wood chips, paper products, chemical products, gasoline and other petroleum products, LPG, and other cargoes.

Kuehne + Nagel International AG transports freight worldwide.  The Company operates sea, land, and rail freight transportation businesses and warehousing and distribution facilities.  Kuehne + Nagel also provides related special services.

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. offers marine shipping services. The Company provides refined oil transportation, crude oil transportation, and other services. COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation also ships iron ores, dry bulks, coal, and other products.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H)

Kirby Corporation operates a fleet of inland tank barges.  The Company transports industrial chemicals, refined petroleum products, black oil products, and agricultural chemicals.  Kirby also overhauls and services diesel engines employed in marine, power generation, and rail applications.

A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S is a conglomerate with diversified holdings. The Company operates a fleet including container vessels, tankers, supply ships, special vessels, APM terminials, and oil drilling rigs.  A.P. Moeller-Maersk also operates industrial business and explores for and produces oil and gas. The Company is active worldwide.

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AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Fuel (Barely) Lower Y/Y | (September 2023)

According to our index, container shipping price momentum remains depressed, but stable. On the other hand, fuel prices -- a boon to earnings for...

Tracking Traffic

US PPI: Tailwinds from Transportation Price Collapse Set to Subside in H2 2023

Falling costs for multiple modes of transportation have provided a strong "tailwind" to US PPI, which has declined steadily over the past 15...

Tracking Traffic

KLINE (9107) - Salutary Earnings, Decent Div, Strong Forecast, and Flow To Come

KLINE generated better-than-expected earnings, and a better-than-expected forecast, higher-than-expected div guidance, and an unexpected...

Travis Lundy

Maersk Q1: Earnings Fine | Guidance Intact | Takeaways for Container Shipping (And Inflation)

Maersk's Q1 result showed a steep Y/Y decline in earnings due to lower rates. But RoE is fine, and the company maintained guidance, which supports...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Container Shipping: Momentum Bottomed | Shares Stabilized | Focus on May News

Container shipping industry momentum bottomed in Q1, and related shares have stopped reacting to bad news. News and commentary from industry...

Tracking Traffic

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