Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Concerted rate increase on Sept 1 failed, deep sea rates are still falling</li>
<li>Carrier revenues in July-August down ~40% Y/Y, W Coast volumes weak</li>
<li>We retain our -ive view on container shipping, seek opportunities to Short</li>
</ul>


Concerted rate increase on Sept 1 failed, deep sea rates are still falling
Carrier revenues in July-August down ~40% Y/Y, W Coast volumes weak
We retain our -ive view on container shipping, seek opportunities to Short


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Sept 1 Rate Increase Failed, Rates Still Down | September 2025

<ul>
<li>In Q225, Evergreen Marine reported a -56% Y/Y decline in Operating Profit</li>
<li>That's bad, but our initial read indicates Q325 will likely be far worse</li>
<li>Y/Y, shares still <em>up</em> slightly; we see lots of downside for container carriers</li>
</ul>


In Q225, Evergreen Marine reported a -56% Y/Y decline in Operating Profit
That's bad, but our initial read indicates Q325 will likely be far worse
Y/Y, shares still up slightly; we see lots of downside for container carriers


Evergreen Marine Reported -56% Y/Y Decline in Q225 OP | But Q325 Is Likely to Be Much Worse

<ul>
<li>Our proprietary index shows price momentum has continued to weaken in Q3</li>
<li>Some carriers have tightened FY25 earnings ranges, but mood mostly downbeat</li>
<li>We remain -ive on the sector; stay SHORT ZIM against LONG CM PORTS pair</li>
</ul>


Our proprietary index shows price momentum has continued to weaken in Q3
Some carriers have tightened FY25 earnings ranges, but mood mostly downbeat
We remain -ive on the sector; stay SHORT ZIM against LONG CM PORTS pair


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates, Earnings, Cash Flow All Collapsing (August 2025)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Orient Overseas International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a>'s 25.9% YTD surge in share price is difficult to justify, as the load factor started to contract and the average freight rate declined.  </li>
<li>Transpacific and Asia-Europe freight rates plunged by 14.7% and 17.3% in 2Q25, respectively. The transpacific volume also registered the first YoY decline in the quarter. </li>
<li>Its P/B of 0.85x is 1SD above average, and is way higher than FY21-22. However, the FY25F earnings of US$1.5bn are incomparable to US$7-10bn in FY21-22.</li>
</ul>



Orient Overseas International (316 HK)'s 25.9% YTD surge in share price is difficult to justify, as the load factor started to contract and the average freight rate declined.  
Transpacific and Asia-Europe freight rates plunged by 14.7% and 17.3% in 2Q25, respectively. The transpacific volume also registered the first YoY decline in the quarter. 
Its P/B of 0.85x is 1SD above average, and is way higher than FY21-22. However, the FY25F earnings of US$1.5bn are incomparable to US$7-10bn in FY21-22.


Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Something Seems Not Quite Right!

<ul>
<li>Shares of container carriers have surged on expectations of a strong recovery in volume</li>
<li>But April data show pricing continued to soften despite solid North American demand</li>
<li>The carriers themselves and other industry players remain downbeat; SHORT the carriers</li>
</ul>


Shares of container carriers have surged on expectations of a strong recovery in volume
But April data show pricing continued to soften despite solid North American demand
The carriers themselves and other industry players remain downbeat; SHORT the carriers


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Weak | No Signs of a Recovery | SHORT (May 2025)

Denmark

A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S is a conglomerate with diversified holdings. The Company operates a fleet including container vessels, tankers, supply ships, special vessels, APM terminials, and oil drilling rigs.  A.P. Moeller-Maersk also operates industrial business and explores for and produces oil and gas. The Company is active worldwide.

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AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Sept 1 Rate Increase Failed, Rates Still Down | September 2025

August and September data show clearly that deep-sea ocean freight rates remain under downward pressure. We believe Q325 carrier earnings may...

Tracking Traffic

Evergreen Marine Reported -56% Y/Y Decline in Q225 OP | But Q325 Is Likely to Be Much Worse

Taiwan's Evergreen Marine reported a steep -56% Y/Y decline in Operating Profit in Q225, but based on their monthly revenues in July-August, we...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates, Earnings, Cash Flow All Collapsing (August 2025)

Container shipping price, earnings, and cash flow all remain weak in Q3. We expect conditions to remain challenging in the medium-term, and our...

Tracking Traffic

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Something Seems Not Quite Right!

OOIL's share price surge is hard to justify as freight rates decline, volume decelerates and load factor contracts. Its P/B ratio is also above...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Weak | No Signs of a Recovery | SHORT (May 2025)

Pricing remains weak, and carriers kept FY25 guidance downbeat despite decent Q125 results (and US claims of progress on tariffs). We view the...

Tracking Traffic

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