External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Upgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM on the consumer discretionary sector.</li><li>The foot traffic of the 2024 10-1 National Day holidays was strong (recovery rate has improved vs Mid-autumn and Dragon Boat Festival) but the spending power remained fairly week.</li><li>Even though the retail sales growth was still under pressure, a sequential improvement was observed compared with Sep 2024, and this should be able to support the further re-rating of the sector valuation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Upgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM on the consumer discretionary sector.The foot traffic of the 2024 10-1 National Day holidays was strong (recovery rate has improved vs Mid-autumn and Dragon Boat Festival) but the spending power remained fairly week.Even though the retail sales growth was still under pressure, a sequential improvement was observed compared with Sep 2024, and this should be able to support the further re-rating of the sector valuation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary - Sequential Improvement May Support Re-Rating

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Alibaba, Kuaishou, Anta, HKEx, China Resource Land, China Telecom, and outflows from Meituan, Tencent, CNOOC, Xiaomi, China Mobile. </li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Alibaba, Kuaishou, Anta, HKEx, China Resource Land, China Telecom, and outflows from Meituan, Tencent, CNOOC, Xiaomi, China Mobile. 


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep): Weak Inflows Ex-Alibaba

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a> has announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>’s tender offer precondition has been satisfied. The offer terms are unchanged at JPY4,350 per share. </li>
<li>The offer is arguably light due to the peer re-rating and historical trading ranges. It is also below the midpoint of the special committee’s IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, the offer will likely succeed. There is no vocal opposition, the volume traded through terms is low, and the offer implies a premium multiple compared to peers. </li>
</ul>



Descente Ltd (8114 JP) has announced that Itochu Corp (8001 JP)’s tender offer precondition has been satisfied. The offer terms are unchanged at JPY4,350 per share. 
The offer is arguably light due to the peer re-rating and historical trading ranges. It is also below the midpoint of the special committee’s IFA DCF valuation range. 
Nevertheless, the offer will likely succeed. There is no vocal opposition, the volume traded through terms is low, and the offer implies a premium multiple compared to peers. 


Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Tender Offer Launches

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> announced that it had received SAMR approval and would launch its Tender Offer to take private its affiliate, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>As warned last year, Descente is cheap on a forward basis due to very strong growth and profitability of Descente China Holdings but Itochu can downplay that future.</li>
<li>And indeed, it appear they did, and unless someone takes them to task, this probably gets done. So far, nobody has.</li>
</ul>


Today, Itochu Corp (8001 JP) announced that it had received SAMR approval and would launch its Tender Offer to take private its affiliate, Descente Ltd (8114 JP). 
As warned last year, Descente is cheap on a forward basis due to very strong growth and profitability of Descente China Holdings but Itochu can downplay that future.
And indeed, it appear they did, and unless someone takes them to task, this probably gets done. So far, nobody has.


Itochu (8001 JP) Lowball TOB for Descente (8114) Is Here - Trades Tight But No Big Holder Appeared

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong is showing strong market momentum as consumer staples, consumer discretionary, healthcare and tech surge on increased momentum.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xtep-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18118:1" rel="noopener">Xtep International (1368 HK)</a> had a good 1H24 and benefited from better consumer sentiment. Analysts are upgrading <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) on an improved outlook.</a></li>
<li>Goldman Sachs upgraded their rating on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (9626 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (BILI US)</a> to a BUY with improving user MAU/DAU measures and the success of its newly launched game.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong is showing strong market momentum as consumer staples, consumer discretionary, healthcare and tech surge on increased momentum.
Xtep International (1368 HK) had a good 1H24 and benefited from better consumer sentiment. Analysts are upgrading Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) on an improved outlook.
Goldman Sachs upgraded their rating on Bilibili (9626 HK) , Bilibili (BILI US) to a BUY with improving user MAU/DAU measures and the success of its newly launched game.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 28)

China

ANTA Sports Products Limited designs, develops, manufactures, and markets sportswear, including sports footwear and apparel for professionals and the general public.

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Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)

Consumer Discretionary - Sequential Improvement May Support Re-Rating

Upgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM on the consumer discretionary sector. The foot traffic of the 2024 10-1 National Day holidays was strong

CMB International

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep): Weak Inflows Ex-Alibaba

We noted 12 months of inflows for Southbound connect stocks and highlighted inflows into Alibaba, Kuaishou, Anta, HKEx, China Resource Land, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Tender Offer Launches

While light the offer will likely succeed. There is no vocal opposition, the volume traded through terms is low, and the offer implies a premium...

Arun George

Itochu (8001 JP) Lowball TOB for Descente (8114) Is Here - Trades Tight But No Big Holder Appeared

The eventual outcome of a lowball takeout by Itochu has been somewhat easy to predict for the past year. It required someone to come in and make...

Travis Lundy

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 28)

Hong Kong market continues to re-rate on the back of PBOC stimulus. XTEP and Tongcheng benefit from improved consumer sentiment and earnings...

David Mudd

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