Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Pittsburgh-Based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a> is offering 0.02854 of its own shares for each <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> share, a 13% premium to last close. Alumina recommends the Offer to shareholders.</li>
<li>Alumina owns a 40% stake in Alcoa World Alumina &amp; Chemicals, a JV with Alcoa that operates bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminium smelting operations. Alcoa owns the remaining 60%.</li>
<li>Separately, Alcoa announced it has entered into an agreement with Allan Gray Australia that gives it the right to acquire up to 19.9% of Alumina. CITIC also holds 18.9%.</li>
</ul>


Pittsburgh-Based Alcoa (AA US) is offering 0.02854 of its own shares for each Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) share, a 13% premium to last close. Alumina recommends the Offer to shareholders.
Alumina owns a 40% stake in Alcoa World Alumina &amp; Chemicals, a JV with Alcoa that operates bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminium smelting operations. Alcoa owns the remaining 60%.
Separately, Alcoa announced it has entered into an agreement with Allan Gray Australia that gives it the right to acquire up to 19.9% of Alumina. CITIC also holds 18.9%.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>'s non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a> is 0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share, implying a value of A$1.15, a 13.1% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Alcoa has been granted a 20-business day exclusivity period. The Board intends to recommend a binding proposal. Allan Gray, the largest shareholder, is supportive. </li>
<li>While strategically sensible, the offer is not a knockout bid. The headcount test is a risk as retail forums suggest a majority view forming against the offer. </li>
</ul>



Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)'s non-binding proposal from Alcoa (AA US) is 0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share, implying a value of A$1.15, a 13.1% premium to the undisturbed price.
Alcoa has been granted a 20-business day exclusivity period. The Board intends to recommend a binding proposal. Allan Gray, the largest shareholder, is supportive. 
While strategically sensible, the offer is not a knockout bid. The headcount test is a risk as retail forums suggest a majority view forming against the offer. 


Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s All-Scrip Non-Binding Proposal Seems Opportunistic

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a> has made a non-binding, indicative and conditional proposal to acquire all shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina (AWC AU)</a>. Shareholders will receive 0.02854 shares of Alcoa for each Alumina share. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a> has entered into an agreement with Allan Gray Australia that gives them the right to acquire 19.9% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> at the same swap ratio.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> is a potential delete from the ASX100 Index at the March rebalance and that could provide an entry into the stock.</li>
</ul>



Alcoa (AA US) has made a non-binding, indicative and conditional proposal to acquire all shares in Alumina (AWC AU). Shareholders will receive 0.02854 shares of Alcoa for each Alumina share. 

Alcoa (AA US) has entered into an agreement with Allan Gray Australia that gives them the right to acquire 19.9% of Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) at the same swap ratio.

Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) is a potential delete from the ASX100 Index at the March rebalance and that could provide an entry into the stock.


Alcoa (AA US) Makes an Offer for Alumina (AWC AU)

<ul>
<li>I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>'s Tender offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a8-new-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3444:1" rel="noopener">A8 New Media (800 HK)</a>'s Scheme, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jeisys-medical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36766:1" rel="noopener">Jeisys Medical (287410 KS)</a>'s delisting offer. Bain also approached <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bapcor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8433:1" rel="noopener">Bapcor (BAP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helios-techno-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13934:1" rel="noopener">Helios Techno (6927 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tatsuta-electric-wire-cable-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12509:1" rel="noopener">Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals discussed this week: Fancl (4921 JP)'s Tender offer, A8 New Media (800 HK)'s Scheme, and Jeisys Medical (287410 KS)'s delisting offer. Bain also approached Bapcor (BAP AU).
Key updates took place on: Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), Alumina (AWC AU), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Helios Techno (6927 JP), and Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Fancl, Jeisys Medical, A8 New Media, Bapcor, Helios Techno,Tatsuta Electric

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>This week the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> entered WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT status intra-week, peaking at 8384.50, then pulling back to 8283.20 at Close.</li>
<li>In this insight we will examine resistance levels the index will have a hard time to clear, without pulling back first at least 1 week.</li>
<li>According to our quantitative models, a pullback is highly likely to happen this week, or the next.</li>
</ul>


This week the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX entered WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT status intra-week, peaking at 8384.50, then pulling back to 8283.20 at Close.
In this insight we will examine resistance levels the index will have a hard time to clear, without pulling back first at least 1 week.
According to our quantitative models, a pullback is highly likely to happen this week, or the next.


EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

Australia

Alumina Limited is an Australian resource company that produces alumina.  The Company owns about 40% of Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals through a joint venture with Alcoa.

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Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)

Alumina (AWC AU) Agrees To Alcoa's Offer

AWC is trading wide. You have Allan Gray on side, and a 50% vote at AA (for the share issuance). And terms allow CITIC to roll up its shares into a...

David Blennerhassett

Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s All-Scrip Non-Binding Proposal Seems Opportunistic

While strategically sensible, the offer is not a knockout bid. The headcount test is a risk as retail forums suggest a majority view forming...

Arun George

Alcoa (AA US) Makes an Offer for Alumina (AWC AU)

Alcoa (AA US) has made a non-binding, indicative, conditional proposal to acquire all shares in Alumina (AWC AU). Shareholders will receive 0.02854...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Fancl, Jeisys Medical, A8 New Media, Bapcor, Helios Techno,Tatsuta Electric

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....

Nico Rosti

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Alumina (AWC AU) Agrees To Alcoa's Offer

AWC is trading wide. You have Allan Gray on side, and a 50% vote at AA (for the share issuance). And terms allow CITIC to roll up its shares into a...

David Blennerhassett

Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s All-Scrip Non-Binding Proposal Seems Opportunistic

While strategically sensible, the offer is not a knockout bid. The headcount test is a risk as retail forums suggest a majority view forming...

Arun George

Alcoa (AA US) Makes an Offer for Alumina (AWC AU)

Alcoa (AA US) has made a non-binding, indicative, conditional proposal to acquire all shares in Alumina (AWC AU). Shareholders will receive 0.02854...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Fancl, Jeisys Medical, A8 New Media, Bapcor, Helios Techno,Tatsuta Electric

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

​The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....

Nico Rosti

The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....