IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-international-securities-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13153:1" rel="noopener">Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30603:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Power International (LPI AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kenedix-retail-reit-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:188:1" rel="noopener">Kenedix Retail REIT (3453 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 111 Inc (YI US), Eoflow (294090 KS), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK), Lithium Power International (LPI AU). 
Lowest spreads - Healius (HLS AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Kenedix Retail REIT (3453 JP), Chindata Group (CD US).


Merger Arb Mondays (23 Oct) - Eoflow, Celltrion Healthcare, JSR, Origin, Lithium Power, Poly Culture

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be up to four ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.  </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> deals also could have interesting index change and/or flow implications over the next few weeks/months.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be up to four ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.  
The Origin Energy (ORG AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) deals also could have interesting index change and/or flow implications over the next few weeks/months.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: InvoCare, Origin Energy, New Crest, Allkem, and More

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> last week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> stops trading this week and should be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs in the ASX indices.</li>
<li>Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)/ Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replaced United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) last week.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) stops trading this week and should be replaced by Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs in the ASX indices.
Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

Lithium Power International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30603:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Power International (LPI AU)</a> has entered a scheme implementation deed with Corporacion Nacional del Cobre de Chile (Codelco) at A$0.57 per share, a 119.2% premium to the undisturbed price.  </li>
<li>Shareholders representing 32.47% of outstanding shares will vote in favour of the scheme. Forums suggest that retail shareholders are broadly resigned to accepting the offer.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on FIRB approval. The scheme meeting will be held on 23 January 2024. At the last close, the gross spread was 7.5%. </li>
</ul>



Lithium Power International (LPI AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Corporacion Nacional del Cobre de Chile (Codelco) at A$0.57 per share, a 119.2% premium to the undisturbed price.  
Shareholders representing 32.47% of outstanding shares will vote in favour of the scheme. Forums suggest that retail shareholders are broadly resigned to accepting the offer.
The offer is conditional on FIRB approval. The scheme meeting will be held on 23 January 2024. At the last close, the gross spread was 7.5%. 


Lithium Power (LPI AU): Codelco’s Binding Offer at A$0.57

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 17 October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> is expected to stop trading after the close on 3 November and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Resources (BOE AU)</a> is best placed to be the replacement.</li>
<li>There are stocks that are close on the heels of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Resources (BOE AU)</a> and will compete for a place. Two of those could be added at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) will replace United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 17 October.

Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) is expected to stop trading after the close on 3 November and Boss Resources (BOE AU) is best placed to be the replacement.
There are stocks that are close on the heels of Boss Resources (BOE AU) and will compete for a place. Two of those could be added at the December rebalance.


S&P/ASX200 Index Ad Hoc Rebalance Preview: Replacement for Invocare (IVC)

Australia

BlueScope Steel Limited supplies steel products and solutions. The Company manufactures steel slabs, plates, hot and cold rolled coils, and coated and painted strip products for building and construction, automotive, whitegoods, and manufacturing applications. BlueScope Steel serves customers in Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

OZ Minerals Ltd. is an Australian based mining company with a focus on copper. The Company owns and operates the Prominent Hill copper-gold mine and the Carrapateena copper-gold project located in South Australia and has a number of equity interests in listed resource companies.

Pilbara Minerals Ltd. is a mineral exploration company. The Company owns mineral tenements in the west Pilbara region of Western Australia where it explores for iron ore, gold and base metals, particularly copper and nickel.

Yancoal Australia Limited provides coal mining services. The Company mines, processes, and sells pure-coal, metallurgical coal, and more. Yancoal Australia also exports its products.

MMG Limited is a mid-tier global resources company which explores, develops and mines base metal projects around the world.  The Company currently owns and operates the Century, Golden Grove and Rosebery mines in Australia, the Kinsevere mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the LXML Sepon mine in Laos.

Evolution Mining Ltd is a gold exploration company with operations in Western Australia. The Company owns the gold mines -Cracow, Edna May, Mt Rawdon, and Pajingo - and the Mt Carlton development project.

IGO Limited operates as an exploration company. The Company explores and mines copper, ore, nickel, gold, and other mineral resources. IGO serves customers worldwide.

Alumina Limited is an Australian resource company that produces alumina.  The Company owns about 40% of Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals through a joint venture with Alcoa.

Northern Star Resources Ltd manufactures precious metals. The Company provides mining and production of gold. Northern Star Resources serves customers in Australia and North America.

Lynas Corporation Limited explores and mines for rare earth minerals such as cerium and neodymium.

United States Steel Corporation operates as an integrated steel producer. The Company manufactures flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in North America and Europe. United States Steel serves the automotive, appliance, container, industrial machinery, construction, and oil and gas industries.

Kobe Steel, Ltd. is a steelmaker, as well as a supplier of aluminum and copper products.  The products include steel plates and steel rods.  The Company also operates other businesses such as welding consumables, urban infrastructure, plant engineering, and industrial & construction machinery.  Kobe Steel has operating offices in the US, Europe, and Asia.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

NMDC Limited explores for minerals. The Company is exploring for iron ore, copper, rock phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite, and beach sands.

Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. primarily manufactures and markets aluminum products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, aluminum rolls, and aluminum alloys.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co.,Ltd. is involved in molybdenum mining, dressing, smelting, processing, research and trade in Asia.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co, Ltd. (601958 CH)

Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates coal businesses. The Company mines, processes, and distributes coal, cokes, coal chemical products, and other products. Huaibei Mining Holdings also produces methanol, crude benzene, ammonium sulfate, and other products.

Shandong Nanshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets aluminum products and worsted woolen products. The Company's major aluminum offerings are electrolytic aluminum and section aluminum. Its woolen products include soybean fiber fabrics, silk fabrics, wool/flax fabrics and cashmere. Shandong also generates and supplies electricity.

Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Ltd. explores, mines, and produces gold.  The Company holds interest in properties in eastern China.

Hoa Phat Group JSC is a multi-disciplinary manufacturing company. The Company manufactures a wide range of products, including steel, steel pipe, furniture, and refrigeration equipment.

Allkem Limited operates as a specialty lithium chemicals company. The Company's portfolio includes lithium brine and borax operations in Argentina, a hard-rock lithium operation in Australia and a lithium hydroxide conversion facility in Japan.

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Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)

Merger Arb Mondays (23 Oct) - Eoflow, Celltrion Healthcare, JSR, Origin, Lithium Power, Poly Culture

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (64.9%), Eoflow (38.2%), Hollysys (30.1%), JSR (8.2%), Haitong Intl (7.8%), LPI (7.5%), Orecorp...

Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: InvoCare, Origin Energy, New Crest, Allkem, and More

I expect Boss Resources (BOE AU) to replace Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) at the close of 3rd November 2023. There could be 17.6mn shares to buy in BOE...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Lithium Power (LPI AU): Codelco’s Binding Offer at A$0.57

Forums suggest that retail shareholders are broadly resigned to accepting the offer. The scheme meeting will be held on 23 January 2024. At the...

Arun George

S&P/ASX200 Index Ad Hoc Rebalance Preview: Replacement for Invocare (IVC)

LNW replaces UMG in the ASX200 tomorrow. BOE could replace IVC at the close on 3 Nov. There could be more ad hoc changes in Nov/early Dec. That...

Brian Freitas

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