Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BABA reported C1Q24 top line, adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net profit (2.7%), 5.5% and in-line vs. consensus. </li>
<li>E-Commerce GMV recovery is the most positive of all. TTG ad-revenues (CMR) trailed GMV growth but we see the two closing the gap in C2H24</li>
<li>Besides stabilizing e-commerce, BABA is on track of transforming itself from China's eBay to China's Microsoft. AI-related cloud revenue grew 100% YoY. </li>
</ul>


BABA reported C1Q24 top line, adjusted EBITA and non-GAAP net profit (2.7%), 5.5% and in-line vs. consensus. 
E-Commerce GMV recovery is the most positive of all. TTG ad-revenues (CMR) trailed GMV growth but we see the two closing the gap in C2H24
Besides stabilizing e-commerce, BABA is on track of transforming itself from China's eBay to China's Microsoft. AI-related cloud revenue grew 100% YoY. 


[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$100) TP Change]: On Track for the Great Turnaround…Reiterate BUY

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>Mixed June quarter results at first glance suggest corporate overhaul strategy is working, with clear evidence Taobao/Tmall is stabilizing in terms of market share and profitability.</li>
<li>Better platform monetization and clear timetable for achieving break-even by non-e-commerce business segments mean double-digit earnings CAGR by FY26 in our view.</li>
<li>We expect Alibaba’s upswing business cycle and moderating headwind of housing market slump are paving the way for the stock’s re-rating in the next 12-24 months. </li>
</ul>


Mixed June quarter results at first glance suggest corporate overhaul strategy is working, with clear evidence Taobao/Tmall is stabilizing in terms of market share and profitability.
Better platform monetization and clear timetable for achieving break-even by non-e-commerce business segments mean double-digit earnings CAGR by FY26 in our view.
We expect Alibaba’s upswing business cycle and moderating headwind of housing market slump are paving the way for the stock’s re-rating in the next 12-24 months. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce.</li>
<li>However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market, physical stores, and fresh food wholesale.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 51% and a price target of HK$115 for March 2025.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce.
However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market, physical stores, and fresh food wholesale.
We set an upside of 51% and a price target of HK$115 for March 2025.


Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA): 1Q25, Growth Lower Than Expectation, But Many Expansion Plans Following

<ul>
<li>We believe revenue will increase by 8% YoY in 1Q25, as most business lines have been growing.</li>
<li>We believe the operating margin will be stable, as cost cut plans came to an end.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 94% for March 2025, as we believe the stock is overly impacted.</li>
</ul>


We believe revenue will increase by 8% YoY in 1Q25, as most business lines have been growing.
We believe the operating margin will be stable, as cost cut plans came to an end.
We set an upside of 94% for March 2025, as we believe the stock is overly impacted.


Alibaba (BABA US): 1Q25 Preview, Stable Growth and Margin, But Overly Impacted

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$100) TP Change]: On Track for the Great Turnaround…Reiterate BUY

BABA's Q1 results show strong performance, with e-commerce GMV leading the way and AI-related cloud revenue doubling year-over-year. Transitioning...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba (BABA US): Strategy at Work

June quarter results show success of overhaul strategy with stabilizing market share and profitability, leading to projected 14% earnings CAGR by...

Eric Chen

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA): 1Q25, Growth Lower Than Expectation, But Many Expansion Plans Following

Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce. However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market,...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (BABA US): 1Q25 Preview, Stable Growth and Margin, But Overly Impacted

We believe revenue will increase by 8% YoY in 1Q25, as most business lines have been growing. We believe the operating margin will be stable, as...

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$100) TP Change]: On Track for the Great Turnaround…Reiterate BUY

​BABA's Q1 results show strong performance, with e-commerce GMV leading the way and AI-related cloud revenue doubling year-over-year. Transitioning...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba (BABA US): Strategy at Work

June quarter results show success of overhaul strategy with stabilizing market share and profitability, leading to projected 14% earnings CAGR by...

Eric Chen

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA): 1Q25, Growth Lower Than Expectation, But Many Expansion Plans Following

Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce. However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market,...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (BABA US): 1Q25 Preview, Stable Growth and Margin, But Overly Impacted

We believe revenue will increase by 8% YoY in 1Q25, as most business lines have been growing. We believe the operating margin will be stable, as...

Ming Lu

BABA's Q1 results show strong performance, with e-commerce GMV leading the way and AI-related cloud revenue doubling year-over-year. Transitioning...