Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> continues to exhibit high volatility. In addition, upside implied volatility trades higher than downside implied volatility.</li>
<li>The unusual structure of the skew supports the implementation of contrarian strategies.</li>
<li>Strategies with a year-end horizon benefit from high liquidity in the listed options market. Several variations of contrarian trades are presented.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) continues to exhibit high volatility. In addition, upside implied volatility trades higher than downside implied volatility.
The unusual structure of the skew supports the implementation of contrarian strategies.
Strategies with a year-end horizon benefit from high liquidity in the listed options market. Several variations of contrarian trades are presented.


EQD | Hang Seng Index Option Strategy - A Contrarian View on the Skew

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPOs front, Indian deals flow seemed to be the only one continuing unbated despite the US elections overhang from the past week. </li>
<li>On the placements front, there weren't many large deals but we did look at upcoming lockup expiries.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPOs front, Indian deals flow seemed to be the only one continuing unbated despite the US elections overhang from the past week. 
On the placements front, there weren't many large deals but we did look at upcoming lockup expiries.


ECM Weekly (11th Nov 2024)-SF Holdings, Swiggy, ACME, NivaBupa, Sagility, Eternal Beauty, Shuangdeng

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Consensus underestimates earnings growth potential of Alibaba in coming years given tangible progress in its internal overhaul and improving China macro backdrop.</li>
<li>The September quarter is likely the end of the company’s earnings slowdown tracing back to 1HFY23, and we expect earnings recovery in FY2H25 will trigger major re-rating. </li>
<li>Fundamental turnaround and gradual bottoming-out of China property market going into 2025 will easily lift Alibaba’s valuation to above 15x P/E. </li>
</ul>


Consensus underestimates earnings growth potential of Alibaba in coming years given tangible progress in its internal overhaul and improving China macro backdrop.
The September quarter is likely the end of the company’s earnings slowdown tracing back to 1HFY23, and we expect earnings recovery in FY2H25 will trigger major re-rating. 
Fundamental turnaround and gradual bottoming-out of China property market going into 2025 will easily lift Alibaba’s valuation to above 15x P/E. 


2025 High Conviction Idea: Alibaba On the Cusp of Major Re-Rating

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 8th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba, HKEx, CCB, SMIC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 8th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba, HKEx, CCB, SMIC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 8th): Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba, HKEx, CCB, SMIC

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 1st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Mnso, HSBC, China Mobile, Baba, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 1st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Mnso, HSBC, China Mobile, Baba, Li Auto.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Mnso, HSBC, China Mobile, Baba, Li Auto

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

EQD | Hang Seng Index Option Strategy - A Contrarian View on the Skew

The Hang Seng Index shows high volatility with upside implied volatility trading higher than downside, supporting contrarian strategies for year-end.

Gaudenz Schneider

ECM Weekly (11th Nov 2024)-SF Holdings, Swiggy, ACME, NivaBupa, Sagility, Eternal Beauty, Shuangdeng

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

2025 High Conviction Idea: Alibaba On the Cusp of Major Re-Rating

We expect up to 20% earnings CAGR amidst improving China macro backdrop will easily lift Alibaba's valuation to above 15x P/E by FY26, with the...

Eric Chen

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 8th): Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba, HKEx, CCB, SMIC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba, HKEx, CCB, SMIC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Mnso, HSBC, China Mobile, Baba, Li Auto

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 1st and highlight short interest changes in Mnso, HSBC, China Mobile,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Hang Seng Index Option Strategy - A Contrarian View on the Skew

​The Hang Seng Index shows high volatility with upside implied volatility trading higher than downside, supporting contrarian strategies for year-end.

Gaudenz Schneider

ECM Weekly (11th Nov 2024)-SF Holdings, Swiggy, ACME, NivaBupa, Sagility, Eternal Beauty, Shuangdeng

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

2025 High Conviction Idea: Alibaba On the Cusp of Major Re-Rating

​We expect up to 20% earnings CAGR amidst improving China macro backdrop will easily lift Alibaba's valuation to above 15x P/E by FY26, with the...

Eric Chen

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 8th): Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba, HKEx, CCB, SMIC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba, HKEx, CCB, SMIC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Mnso, HSBC, China Mobile, Baba, Li Auto

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 1st and highlight short interest changes in Mnso, HSBC, China Mobile,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Hang Seng Index shows high volatility with upside implied volatility trading higher than downside, supporting contrarian strategies for year-end.

We expect up to 20% earnings CAGR amidst improving China macro backdrop will easily lift Alibaba's valuation to above 15x P/E by FY26, with the...