Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>’s 3QFY22 results was disappointing with the company’s revenue growing by 9.7% YoY, the slowest YoY growth since inception and missing the consensus revenue target by 1.3%.</li>
<li>The situation appears far worse on the profitability side considering that OP (excluding impairment of goodwill) fell more than 34% YoY to RMB 32.2bn in 3QFY22.</li>
<li>We feel there’s a lot more downside to Alibaba shares over the medium term as the company’s cash cows are starting to falter in these tough conditions.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group (9988 HK)’s 3QFY22 results was disappointing with the company’s revenue growing by 9.7% YoY, the slowest YoY growth since inception and missing the consensus revenue target by 1.3%.
The situation appears far worse on the profitability side considering that OP (excluding impairment of goodwill) fell more than 34% YoY to RMB 32.2bn in 3QFY22.
We feel there’s a lot more downside to Alibaba shares over the medium term as the company’s cash cows are starting to falter in these tough conditions.


Alibaba: A Long Way Down Already and a Lot More to Go

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> shares have fallen 46% since 31 March v a 52% decline for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> with little daylight between the two since August</li>
<li>That reflects fading influence from Vision Fund which is shed $12bn in value Q4 to date and c. $30bn this fiscal year.</li>
<li>The discount remains in the 50% range as tailwinds from the share buyback depend on a successful IPO of ARM, where the magnitude and timing remain uncertain</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) shares have fallen 46% since 31 March v a 52% decline for Alibaba Group (9988 HK) with little daylight between the two since August
That reflects fading influence from Vision Fund which is shed $12bn in value Q4 to date and c. $30bn this fiscal year.
The discount remains in the 50% range as tailwinds from the share buyback depend on a successful IPO of ARM, where the magnitude and timing remain uncertain


Softbank Group - Alibaba Remains the Key Share Price Driver as VF Diversification Stalls

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>BABA’s app, SDTao, has been taking active users from Pinduoduo.</li>
<li>We believe BABA’s physical store chain, Freshippo, will go public.</li>
<li>We believe BABA will stop investing in unprofitable Ele.me as it underperforms Meituan.</li>
</ul>


BABA’s app, SDTao, has been taking active users from Pinduoduo.
We believe BABA’s physical store chain, Freshippo, will go public.
We believe BABA will stop investing in unprofitable Ele.me as it underperforms Meituan.


Alibaba (BABA): 3Q22, Transforming Missions Going Under Slow Quarter

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading around our fair value. Larger than expected special dividends from oil and telecom companies could provide some upside.</li>
<li>The HSCEI 2022/23 div steepener has dropped from -5 to -15 since our last Insight. We see further downside here and would look to add to shorts in the spread.</li>
<li>With rising interest rates, higher inflation, higher oil prices, a slowdown could lead to a rapid repricing of dividends and there will be opportunities to buy back the spread lower.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading around our fair value. Larger than expected special dividends from oil and telecom companies could provide some upside.
The HSCEI 2022/23 div steepener has dropped from -5 to -15 since our last Insight. We see further downside here and would look to add to shorts in the spread.
With rising interest rates, higher inflation, higher oil prices, a slowdown could lead to a rapid repricing of dividends and there will be opportunities to buy back the spread lower.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Stay Short the 2022/23 Steepener

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Education Australia, the largest shareholder of IDP Education, last raised around US$858m (A$1.1bn) via selling 15% of IDP Education in Aug 2021.</li>
<li>The lock-up from that deal is set to expire later this month, which will result in an additional 12.5% of the company’s shares, worth US$670m (A$927m) being unlocked. </li>
<li>In this note we will talk about the recent results and the upcoming lockup expiry.</li>
</ul>


Education Australia, the largest shareholder of IDP Education, last raised around US$858m (A$1.1bn) via selling 15% of IDP Education in Aug 2021.
The lock-up from that deal is set to expire later this month, which will result in an additional 12.5% of the company’s shares, worth US$670m (A$927m) being unlocked. 
In this note we will talk about the recent results and the upcoming lockup expiry.


IDP Education Placement - Time for Round 2 (US$700m Worth) Of the Selldown

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

Alibaba: A Long Way Down Already and a Lot More to Go

Even though shares are down more than 65% from the peak, we feel there’s a lot more downside to Alibaba over the medium term as the company’s cash...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Alibaba (BABA): 3Q22, Transforming Missions Going Under Slow Quarter

BABA’s app, SDTao, has been taking active users from Pinduoduo. We believe BABA’s physical store chain, Freshippo, will go public. We believe BABA...

Ming Lu

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Stay Short the 2022/23 Steepener

We see the HSCEI 2022 div futures trading in line with our estimates while there could be more downside to the 2022/23 div spread. We'd look to get...

Brian Freitas

IDP Education Placement - Time for Round 2 (US$700m Worth) Of the Selldown

Education Australia, the largest shareholder of IDP Education, last raised around US$858m (A$1.1bn) via selling 15% of IDP Education in Aug 2021....

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alibaba: A Long Way Down Already and a Lot More to Go

Even though shares are down more than 65% from the peak, we feel there’s a lot more downside to Alibaba over the medium term as the company’s cash...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Softbank Group - Alibaba Remains the Key Share Price Driver as VF Diversification Stalls

Vision Fund, ARM and buybacks have grabbed headlines but Alibaba's share price has been the best predictor for Softbank's value, particularly over...

Kirk Boodry

Alibaba (BABA): 3Q22, Transforming Missions Going Under Slow Quarter

BABA’s app, SDTao, has been taking active users from Pinduoduo. We believe BABA’s physical store chain, Freshippo, will go public. We believe BABA...

Ming Lu

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Stay Short the 2022/23 Steepener

We see the HSCEI 2022 div futures trading in line with our estimates while there could be more downside to the 2022/23 div spread. We'd look to get...

Brian Freitas

IDP Education Placement - Time for Round 2 (US$700m Worth) Of the Selldown

Education Australia, the largest shareholder of IDP Education, last raised around US$858m (A$1.1bn) via selling 15% of IDP Education in Aug 2021....

Sumeet Singh