Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>’s 4QFY22 results were yet another disappointment with the company’s revenue growing by 8.9% YoY, a new low after slowing to 9.7% YoY in the previous quarter.</li>
<li>This was mostly priced-in, considering that 4QFY22 revenue and OP exceeded consensus by 2.3% and 216% respectively.</li>
<li>However, FY23 and FY24 estimates are still ambitious and there’s a lot of downside risk to consensus from 2QFY22 onwards.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group (9988 HK)’s 4QFY22 results were yet another disappointment with the company’s revenue growing by 8.9% YoY, a new low after slowing to 9.7% YoY in the previous quarter.
This was mostly priced-in, considering that 4QFY22 revenue and OP exceeded consensus by 2.3% and 216% respectively.
However, FY23 and FY24 estimates are still ambitious and there’s a lot of downside risk to consensus from 2QFY22 onwards.


Alibaba: 4QFY22 Beats Consensus but Disappointments Could Be Around the Corner

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>BILI dismissed employees in game, e-commerce, and video in May.</li>
<li>We believe the growth rates of minor businesses will slow down significantly in 1Q22.</li>
<li>However, the operating margin will improve in 2022 and 2023.</li>
</ul>


BILI dismissed employees in game, e-commerce, and video in May.
We believe the growth rates of minor businesses will slow down significantly in 1Q22.
However, the operating margin will improve in 2022 and 2023.


Bilibili (9626 HK) Pre-Earnings: Layoff Will Slow Down Minor Biz, But More Importantly Cut Loss

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Fosun aims to raise around US$527m via selling a 3.5% stake in Tsingtao.</li>
<li>This is not the first selldown by Fosun, we have covered three prior deals in Dec 2020, Apr 2021 and Dec 2021.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Fosun aims to raise around US$527m via selling a 3.5% stake in Tsingtao.
This is not the first selldown by Fosun, we have covered three prior deals in Dec 2020, Apr 2021 and Dec 2021.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Tsingtao Placement - Ending the Selldowns with the Biggest One so Far

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest in stock ownership data among active GEM Equity investors.</li>
<li>Latest aggregate positioning, most widely held stocks, over/underweights, unloved and avoided companies</li>
<li>Largest fund level stock positions(weight and USD), aggregate stock ownership changes, fund level stock ownership Changes</li>
</ul>


The latest in stock ownership data among active GEM Equity investors.
Latest aggregate positioning, most widely held stocks, over/underweights, unloved and avoided companies
Largest fund level stock positions(weight and USD), aggregate stock ownership changes, fund level stock ownership Changes


Emerging Markets Stock Positioning Chart Pack

<ul>
<li>Operating margin improved in 4Q22 due to well controlled expenses in minor businesses.</li>
<li>We believe the state council meeting will provide a turning point in June.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 31% and a price target at HK$106.</li>
</ul>


Operating margin improved in 4Q22 due to well controlled expenses in minor businesses.
We believe the state council meeting will provide a turning point in June.
We set an upside of 31% and a price target at HK$106.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Well Controlled Expense in 4Q22 and Forthcoming Turning Point in June, Buy

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

Alibaba: 4QFY22 Beats Consensus but Disappointments Could Be Around the Corner

After a 14% move following earnings, Alibaba shares have reached the upper end of the trend channel and are positioned for another leg down with...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Bilibili (9626 HK) Pre-Earnings: Layoff Will Slow Down Minor Biz, But More Importantly Cut Loss

BILI dismissed employees in game, e-commerce, and video. We believe the growth rates of minor businesses will slow down in 1Q22. However, the...

Ming Lu

Tsingtao Placement - Ending the Selldowns with the Biggest One so Far

Fosun aims to raise around US$527m via selling a 3.5% stake in Tsingtao. We have covered three other selldowns by Fosun before.

Sumeet Singh

Emerging Markets Stock Positioning Chart Pack

The latest in stock ownership data among active Global Emerging Markets Equity funds. Most Widely Held, Over/Underweights, Unloved and Avoided...

Steven Holden

Alibaba (9988 HK): Well Controlled Expense in 4Q22 and Forthcoming Turning Point in June, Buy

Operating margin improved in 4Q22 due to well controlled expenses in minor businesses. We believe the lockdown will continue to be softened. We set...

Ming Lu

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