Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education (9901 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime (20 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> at the close on 6 September.</li>
<li>The inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> is a big surprise and the stock could move higher over the next couple of weeks.</li>
<li>The non-inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> is another surprise since we had the stock highly ranked in the universe.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) and New Oriental Education (9901 HK) will replace JD Logistics (2618 HK) and SenseTime (20 HK) in the HSCEI at the close on 6 September.
The inclusion of J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) is a big surprise and the stock could move higher over the next couple of weeks.
The non-inclusion of PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) is another surprise since we had the stock highly ranked in the universe.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Three In-Line Changes, Two Big Surprises

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mixed June quarter results at first glance suggest corporate overhaul strategy is working, with clear evidence Taobao/Tmall is stabilizing in terms of market share and profitability.</li>
<li>Better platform monetization and clear timetable for achieving break-even by non-e-commerce business segments mean double-digit earnings CAGR by FY26 in our view.</li>
<li>We expect Alibaba’s upswing business cycle and moderating headwind of housing market slump are paving the way for the stock’s re-rating in the next 12-24 months. </li>
</ul>


Mixed June quarter results at first glance suggest corporate overhaul strategy is working, with clear evidence Taobao/Tmall is stabilizing in terms of market share and profitability.
Better platform monetization and clear timetable for achieving break-even by non-e-commerce business segments mean double-digit earnings CAGR by FY26 in our view.
We expect Alibaba’s upswing business cycle and moderating headwind of housing market slump are paving the way for the stock’s re-rating in the next 12-24 months. 


Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce.</li>
<li>However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market, physical stores, and fresh food wholesale.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 51% and a price target of HK$115 for March 2025.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce.
However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market, physical stores, and fresh food wholesale.
We set an upside of 51% and a price target of HK$115 for March 2025.


Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA): 1Q25, Growth Lower Than Expectation, But Many Expansion Plans Following

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>700 HK: Based on &lt;DnF Mobile&gt; Developer Nexon's 2Q24 Financial Report, the Game Generated around RMB 7bn in Revenue During the Quarter (+)</li>
<li>700 HK: &lt;League of Legends&gt; to Introduce Another PVE Game Mode (+)</li>
<li>BILI US: Bilibili's &lt;Aether Gazer&gt; to Shut Down on November 12 (/)</li>
</ul>


700 HK: Based on &lt;DnF Mobile&gt; Developer Nexon's 2Q24 Financial Report, the Game Generated around RMB 7bn in Revenue During the Quarter (+)
700 HK: &lt;League of Legends&gt; to Introduce Another PVE Game Mode (+)
BILI US: Bilibili's &lt;Aether Gazer&gt; to Shut Down on November 12 (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/BILI US/BABA US/PDD US/JD/3690HK/ZTO/1519HK/2352 CH/SHEIN/TCOM

<ul>
<li>The constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> and HSIII Index will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>We forecast 2 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, 1 change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> and 3 changes for the HSIII Index.</li>
<li>With same-way and opposing flow on stocks from different passive trackers, the one-way trade is currently estimated at HK$5.2bn (US$672m). That will change with final capping done on 3 September.</li>
</ul>


The constituent changes for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) and HSIII Index will be announced after market close on Friday.
We forecast 2 changes for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), 1 change for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) and 3 changes for the HSIII Index.
With same-way and opposing flow on stocks from different passive trackers, the one-way trade is currently estimated at HK$5.2bn (US$672m). That will change with final capping done on 3 September.


HSCEI/HSTECH/HSIII Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes, Flow & Positioning

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Three In-Line Changes, Two Big Surprises

There are 2 sets of changes for the index in Sep. 1 add is a big surprise, as is 1 non-inclusion. JT Global Express should pop on Monday but there...

Brian Freitas

Alibaba (BABA US): Strategy at Work

June quarter results show success of overhaul strategy with stabilizing market share and profitability, leading to projected 14% earnings CAGR by...

Eric Chen

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA): 1Q25, Growth Lower Than Expectation, But Many Expansion Plans Following

Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce. However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market,...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/BILI US/BABA US/PDD US/JD/3690HK/ZTO/1519HK/2352 CH/SHEIN/TCOM

Nexon's <dnf mobile> game generates RMB 7bn, League of Legends adds new PVE mode, Bilibili's <aether gazer> shutting down on November 12.<...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HSCEI/HSTECH/HSIII Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes, Flow & Positioning

We expect 2 changes for the HSCEI, 1 for the HSTECH, 2 for the HSIII. Tne-way trade is estimated at HK$5.2bn (US$672m). There is same-way and...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Three In-Line Changes, Two Big Surprises

There are 2 sets of changes for the index in Sep. 1 add is a big surprise, as is 1 non-inclusion. JT Global Express should pop on Monday but there...

Brian Freitas

Alibaba (BABA US): Strategy at Work

June quarter results show success of overhaul strategy with stabilizing market share and profitability, leading to projected 14% earnings CAGR by...

Eric Chen

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA): 1Q25, Growth Lower Than Expectation, But Many Expansion Plans Following

Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce. However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market,...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/BILI US/BABA US/PDD US/JD/3690HK/ZTO/1519HK/2352 CH/SHEIN/TCOM

​Nexon's <dnf mobile> game generates RMB 7bn, League of Legends adds new PVE mode, Bilibili's <aether gazer> shutting down on November 12.<...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HSCEI/HSTECH/HSIII Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes, Flow & Positioning

We expect 2 changes for the HSCEI, 1 for the HSTECH, 2 for the HSIII. Tne-way trade is estimated at HK$5.2bn (US$672m). There is same-way and...

Brian Freitas

Nexon's <dnf mobile> game generates RMB 7bn, League of Legends adds new PVE mode, Bilibili's <aether gazer> shutting down on November 12.<...