Taiwan Tech Focused Asia L/S Analyst

Henry King

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. </li>
<li>Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.</li>
<li>VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.</li>
</ul>


1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. 
Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.
VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.


The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMD’s resurgence against a dominant Intel saw the company grow annual revenues &gt;4x between 2017 and 2022</li>
<li>FY 2023 revenue is likely to be down roughly $1 billion or ~4% YoY.</li>
<li>We expect a combination of renewed Data Center market share growth plus a grand entrance into the AI acceleration segment will restart the party all over again in 2024. </li>
</ul>


AMD’s resurgence against a dominant Intel saw the company grow annual revenues &gt;4x between 2017 and 2022
FY 2023 revenue is likely to be down roughly $1 billion or ~4% YoY.
We expect a combination of renewed Data Center market share growth plus a grand entrance into the AI acceleration segment will restart the party all over again in 2024. 


AMD. With FY23 Revenues Set to Fall ~4% YoY, Is The Party Over?

<p>With critically acclaimed launches of next-generation consumer and server processors, growing GPU sales to the data center, steadily increasing market share, impressive supercomputing design wins, a strategically significant GPU partnership with Samsung, even tacit acknowledgement of competitive progress by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices</a> has arguably just experienced the most exciting three months in the company's 50-year history. Yet, this same period saw the company's stock fall by almost 18% on the back of a weaker than expected full year outlook coupled with broader market uncertainties related to trade wars and an increasingly gloomy global economic growth outlook. Despite this setback, we remain convinced in our view that the best is yet to come for AMD. Here's why. </p>

With critically acclaimed launches of next-generation consumer and server processors, growing GPU sales to the data center, steadily increasing market share, impressive supercomputing design wins, a strategically significant GPU partnership with Samsung, even tacit acknowledgement of competitive progress by Intel,  Advanced Micro Devices has arguably just experienced the most exciting three months in the company's 50-year history. Yet, this same period saw the company's stock fall by almost 18% on the back of a weaker than expected full year outlook coupled with broader market uncertainties related to trade wars and an increasingly gloomy global economic growth outlook. Despite this setback, we remain convinced in our view that the best is yet to come for AMD. Here's why. 

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Advanced Micro Devices managed to surpass analysts' revenue and earnings expectations, achieving notable milestones in AI hardware and software development and reinforcing their momentum in AI solutions.</li><li>With over 50 notebook designs powered by Ryzen AI in the market, collaboration with Microsoft on the next Windows generation, and strong growth in PC and Data Center segments, the quarter yielded a 4% YoY and 8% sequential revenue increase to $5.8 billion.</li><li>In the Data Center segment, AMD secured commitments from large hyperscale customers for Instinct MI300 accelerators, leading to flat YoY but a 21% sequential revenue increase to $1.6 billion.</li></ul>

Advanced Micro Devices managed to surpass analysts' revenue and earnings expectations, achieving notable milestones in AI hardware and software development and reinforcing their momentum in AI solutions.With over 50 notebook designs powered by Ryzen AI in the market, collaboration with Microsoft on the next Windows generation, and strong growth in PC and Data Center segments, the quarter yielded a 4% YoY and 8% sequential revenue increase to $5.8 billion.In the Data Center segment, AMD secured commitments from large hyperscale customers for Instinct MI300 accelerators, leading to flat YoY but a 21% sequential revenue increase to $1.6 billion.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): The Nod.ai Acquisition A Possible Game Changer? - Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>Q323 revenues of $5.8 billion, $100 million above midpoint, up 7.5% QoQ and up 4% YoY. Net income of $299 million, significantly up from $27 million in the second quarter.</li>
<li>Forecasted Q423 revenues of $6.1 billion at the midpoint, up ~5% QoQ</li>
<li>MI300 forecasted to hit &gt; $2 billion in 2024 making it the fastest product ramp to $1 billion in the company's history</li>
</ul>


Q323 revenues of $5.8 billion, $100 million above midpoint, up 7.5% QoQ and up 4% YoY. Net income of $299 million, significantly up from $27 million in the second quarter.
Forecasted Q423 revenues of $6.1 billion at the midpoint, up ~5% QoQ
MI300 forecasted to hit &gt; $2 billion in 2024 making it the fastest product ramp to $1 billion in the company's history


United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

While Taiwanese VGA card makers reported record sales in January and NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue for 4QFY22, the outlook of the VGA...

Henry King

AMD. With FY23 Revenues Set to Fall ~4% YoY, Is The Party Over?

Despite FY23 revenues on track to decline ~4% YoY, we expect a combination of renewed DC market share growth + a grand entrance to the AI...

William Keating

AMD.The Best Is Yet To Come!

We've been writing about AMD's resurgence for > 5 years. This article from mid 2019 chronicles a critical time in AMD's comeback. Despite having...

William Keating

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): The Nod.ai Acquisition A Possible Game Changer? - Major Drivers

Advanced Micro Devices managed to surpass analysts' revenue and earnings expectations, achieving notable milestones in AI hardware and software...

Baptista Research

AMD Q323. MI300 >$2 Billion in 2024

MI300 forecasted to hit > $2 billion in 2024. This will make it the fastest product ramp to $1 billion in the company's history. Wow!

William Keating

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