Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q24 results inline with Consensus. 4Q guidance slightly below. 2025 Consensus is in the ballpark: 28% revenue growth, 59% EPS growth. The stock trades at average forward PEx 31x.</li>
<li>2024 GPU revenue guidance has increased from US$2bn a year ago to “exceed $5bn”. The concern is that AMD is lagging Nvidia. But AMD’s 1st competitive GPU is available 1Q25.</li>
<li>Other concern is that GPU growth is eating at the CPU market. AMD unit share is ~24% in 2024 (revenue share 33%). AMD can reach 35% unit share by 2026.</li>
</ul>


3Q24 results inline with Consensus. 4Q guidance slightly below. 2025 Consensus is in the ballpark: 28% revenue growth, 59% EPS growth. The stock trades at average forward PEx 31x.
2024 GPU revenue guidance has increased from US$2bn a year ago to “exceed $5bn”. The concern is that AMD is lagging Nvidia. But AMD’s 1st competitive GPU is available 1Q25.
Other concern is that GPU growth is eating at the CPU market. AMD unit share is ~24% in 2024 (revenue share 33%). AMD can reach 35% unit share by 2026.


AMD 3Q24: The Stock Is Down 8% Afterhours. We See Concerns in the Wrong Place, a Buying Opportunity

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Advanced Micro Devices reported fourth-quarter revenue of $7.7 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year, driven by strong growth in the data center and client segments.</li><li>The data center segment, which includes AI accelerators and server processors, delivered $3.9 billion in revenue, up 69% year-over-year but missing analyst expectations of $4.09 billion.</li><li>The company gained market share in CPUs, securing key wins with hyperscalers like Microsoft, Meta, and Google.</li></ul>

Advanced Micro Devices reported fourth-quarter revenue of $7.7 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year, driven by strong growth in the data center and client segments.The data center segment, which includes AI accelerators and server processors, delivered $3.9 billion in revenue, up 69% year-over-year but missing analyst expectations of $4.09 billion.The company gained market share in CPUs, securing key wins with hyperscalers like Microsoft, Meta, and Google.

AMD’s AI Bet Is Failing? DeepSeek Challenges the Market While Nvidia Widens the Gap!

<ul>
<li>Apparently, on news of this new Huawei chip in WSJ, Nvidia’s stock decline -2% yesterday. That’s strange – not new news, the real issue is new US export license requirements.</li>
<li>Nvidia’s problem is not Huawei, but US restrictions on selling GPU to China. Nvidia announced writing off US$5.5bn on 9 April 2025 (for H20). AMD estimates US$800m (for MI308).</li>
<li>Assume that Nvidia and AMD will not sell any AI chips to China. Same for HBM memory.</li>
</ul>


Apparently, on news of this new Huawei chip in WSJ, Nvidia’s stock decline -2% yesterday. That’s strange – not new news, the real issue is new US export license requirements.
Nvidia’s problem is not Huawei, but US restrictions on selling GPU to China. Nvidia announced writing off US$5.5bn on 9 April 2025 (for H20). AMD estimates US$800m (for MI308).
Assume that Nvidia and AMD will not sell any AI chips to China. Same for HBM memory.


Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who  pulled off what many thought to be impossible</li>
<li>Despite flawless execution and carving out a brand new $5 billion market segment within AI Acceleration, AMD's share prices is down 44% from its 52 week high</li>
<li>AMD will ultimately face headwinds from Arm but, for the time being, their growth will come from continuing to take market share from Intel and building on their Instinct platform </li>
</ul>


AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who  pulled off what many thought to be impossible
Despite flawless execution and carving out a brand new $5 billion market segment within AI Acceleration, AMD's share prices is down 44% from its 52 week high
AMD will ultimately face headwinds from Arm but, for the time being, their growth will come from continuing to take market share from Intel and building on their Instinct platform 


<ul>
<li>Q424 revenues of $7.7. billion, up 12% QoQ, up 27% YoY and $200 million above the guided midpoint. This marked the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue</li>
<li>AMD forecasted Q125 revenues of $7.1 billion at the midpoint, up 30% YoY but down ~7% sequentially. This caused the share price to decline by ~9% in after hours trading</li>
<li>H125 is a reset period for AMD's Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn't mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better, and I believe they will.</li>
</ul>


Q424 revenues of $7.7. billion, up 12% QoQ, up 27% YoY and $200 million above the guided midpoint. This marked the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
AMD forecasted Q125 revenues of $7.1 billion at the midpoint, up 30% YoY but down ~7% sequentially. This caused the share price to decline by ~9% in after hours trading
H125 is a reset period for AMD's Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn't mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better, and I believe they will.


AMD Q424. Share Price Sinks As Data Center GPU Growth Stalls In H125. But Why?

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

AMD 3Q24: The Stock Is Down 8% Afterhours. We See Concerns in the Wrong Place, a Buying Opportunity

The stock is down sharply after hours but concerns are misplaced in our view. AMD competitive GPU is only available from 1Q25. We expect AMD to...

Nicolas Baratte

AMD’s AI Bet Is Failing? DeepSeek Challenges the Market While Nvidia Widens the Gap!

Advanced Micro Devices reported fourth-quarter revenue of $7.7 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year, driven by strong growth in the data center...

Baptista Research

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

News of Huawei chip impacts Nvidia stock, but real issue is US export restrictions on selling GPUs to China. Nvidia and AMD facing significant...

Nicolas Baratte

AMD's Lisa Su Named Time CEO Of The Year

AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who pulled off what many thought to be impossible....

William Keating

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Market Cap (USDm)

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AMD 3Q24: The Stock Is Down 8% Afterhours. We See Concerns in the Wrong Place, a Buying Opportunity

The stock is down sharply after hours but concerns are misplaced in our view. AMD competitive GPU is only available from 1Q25. We expect AMD to...

Nicolas Baratte

AMD’s AI Bet Is Failing? DeepSeek Challenges the Market While Nvidia Widens the Gap!

Advanced Micro Devices reported fourth-quarter revenue of $7.7 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year, driven by strong growth in the data center...

Baptista Research

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

​News of Huawei chip impacts Nvidia stock, but real issue is US export restrictions on selling GPUs to China. Nvidia and AMD facing significant...

Nicolas Baratte

AMD's Lisa Su Named Time CEO Of The Year

AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who pulled off what many thought to be impossible....

William Keating

AMD Q424. Share Price Sinks As Data Center GPU Growth Stalls In H125. But Why?

H125 is a reset period for AMD's Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn't mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better,...

William Keating

News of Huawei chip impacts Nvidia stock, but real issue is US export restrictions on selling GPUs to China. Nvidia and AMD facing significant...