Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Intel, AMD &amp; Qualcomm all lined up in support of Microsoft's CoPilot+ PC program during the Computex 2024 keynotes last week.  </li>
<li>While Qualcomm is all in and AMD mostly too, Intel's support is more passive agressive in nature. We outline how &amp; why this is the case</li>
<li>On Friday June 7, reacting to customer feedback, Microsoft announced that their CoPilot+ Recall feature will now become disabled out of the box by default. Ouch!</li>
</ul>


Intel, AMD &amp; Qualcomm all lined up in support of Microsoft's CoPilot+ PC program during the Computex 2024 keynotes last week.  
While Qualcomm is all in and AMD mostly too, Intel's support is more passive agressive in nature. We outline how &amp; why this is the case
On Friday June 7, reacting to customer feedback, Microsoft announced that their CoPilot+ Recall feature will now become disabled out of the box by default. Ouch!


Computex 2024 & The Drama Of The CoPilot+ PC Launch

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q124 revenue was $12.7 billion, down 17.5% QoQ but up 9% YoY.</li>
<li>Q224 revenue forecast of just $13 billion &amp; vague promise of full year YoY growth disappoints</li>
<li>Capacity constraints on wafer level assembly limited Meteor Lake shipments. So much for a maniacal focus on execution.</li>
</ul>


Q124 revenue was $12.7 billion, down 17.5% QoQ but up 9% YoY.
Q224 revenue forecast of just $13 billion &amp; vague promise of full year YoY growth disappoints
Capacity constraints on wafer level assembly limited Meteor Lake shipments. So much for a maniacal focus on execution.


Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors</li>
<li>After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.</li>
<li>We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.</li>
</ul>


Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors
After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.
We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.


Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Key Taiwan Server Names Soar; Delta Electronics Major Winner of Nvidia's Conference</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Raising Growth Target to 25%+ YoY in 2024F</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Micron Leapfrogging Into HBM3E for AI; Nanya Lagging Peers But Poised to Benefit </li>
</ul>


Key Taiwan Server Names Soar; Delta Electronics Major Winner of Nvidia's Conference
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Raising Growth Target to 25%+ YoY in 2024F
Memory Monitor: Micron Leapfrogging Into HBM3E for AI; Nanya Lagging Peers But Poised to Benefit 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Key Taiwan Server Names Soar; Raising TSMC Growth Target; Memory Rally

<ul>
<li>Forecasting PC &amp; Smartphone unit shipments to increase 5% YoY on the back on "AI Enablement"</li>
<li>Server unit shipments declined ~20% in 2023 but overall revenues remained flat, a consequence of higher ASPs associated with AI-accelerated servers</li>
<li>Server shipments will return to growth in 2024, likely +10% YoY. Server ASPs will increase yet again YoY as AI-server mix grows. </li>
</ul>


Forecasting PC &amp; Smartphone unit shipments to increase 5% YoY on the back on "AI Enablement"
Server unit shipments declined ~20% in 2023 but overall revenues remained flat, a consequence of higher ASPs associated with AI-accelerated servers
Server shipments will return to growth in 2024, likely +10% YoY. Server ASPs will increase yet again YoY as AI-server mix grows. 


Semiconductor 2023 Key Indicators In Review, 2024 Forecasts

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc specializes in high-performance, integrated power solutions. The Company provides small, highly energy efficient, easy-to-use power solutions for systems found in industrial applications, telecom infrastructures, cloud computing, automotive, and consumer applications.

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

Skyworks Solutions, Inc., a wireless semiconductor company, designs and manufactures radio frequency and complete semiconductor system solutions for mobile communications applications.  The Company provides front-end modules, radio frequency subsystems, and system solutions to wireless handset and infrastructure customers worldwide.

Microchip Technology Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets microcontrollers, related mixed-signal and memory products, and application development systems for high-volume embedded control applications. The Company also designs, develops, and markets linear/mixed-signal, power management, and thermal management products.

Entegris Inc. provides materials management products and services to the microelectronics industry on a worldwide basis.  The Company provides products such as wafer shippers, wafer transport and process carriers, pods, and work-in-process boxes.  Entegris also provides chemical delivery products such as valves, fittings, tubing, pipe, and containers.

Analog Devices, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits used in analog and digital signal processing.  The Company's products are used in communications, computer, industrial, instrumentation, military/aerospace, automotive, and high-performance consumer electronics applications.  Analog Devices sells its products worldwide.

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

NXP Semiconductors NV operates as a global semiconductor company. The Company designs semiconductors and software for mobile communications, consumer electronics, security applications, in-car entertainment, and networking.  NXP offers its products to the automotive, identification, wireless infrastructure, lighting, mobile, and computing applications.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

DISCO CORPORATION manufactures abrasive and precision industrial machinery for cutting and grinding purposes.  The Company's products are applied in the semiconductor, electronics, and construction industries to produce consumer goods such as personal computers, digital cameras, video game systems, and Digital Video Disc (DVD) players.

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Computex 2024 & The Drama Of The CoPilot+ PC Launch

While Qualcomm is all in and AMD mostly too, Intel's CoPilot+ support is more passive agressive in nature. We outline how & why this is the case...

William Keating

Intel. Just Check Back In Again In 2026

Q124 revenue $12.7 billion, -17.5% QoQ but +9% YoY. Q224 forecast of $13 billion, vague promise of full year YoY growth & capacity constraints on...

William Keating

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; we might see AI server, WiFi/networking, and NAND vendors in US to beat 1Q24 but...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Key Taiwan Server Names Soar; Raising TSMC Growth Target; Memory Rally

The market was generally positive after Nvidia's GTC conference last week with key Taiwan server and other AI-linked names rising substantially....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductor 2023 Key Indicators In Review, 2024 Forecasts

PC & Smartphone unit shipments will increase 5% YoY on the back on "AI Enablement". Server shipments fell ~20% in 2023 but overall revenues...

William Keating

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