Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Pat Gelsinger took the helm at Intel last week after a decade-long hiatus. In a letter to employees, he reiterated that this was his dream job and set out four priorities, namely product leadership, flawless execution, faster innovation and a reignition of the company's culture. As priorities go, these are standard, off the shelf cookie cutter imperatives that could be used by the incoming CEO of almost any company and tell us little or nothing about the actual direction Intel will take. Intel has the potential to be the technology turnaround story of the decade if not this century. If Gelsinger plays his cards right, Intel's market cap could quadruple to $1 trillion by 2026. Getting there will depend on Gelsinger implementing three key strategies. Here's what we think they are.

Pat Gelsinger took the helm at Intel last week after a decade-long hiatus. In a letter to employees, he reiterated that this was his dream job and set out four priorities, namely product leadership, flawless execution, faster innovation and a reignition of the company's culture. As priorities go, these are standard, off the shelf cookie cutter imperatives that could be used by the incoming CEO of almost any company and tell us little or nothing about the actual direction Intel will take. Intel has the potential to be the technology turnaround story of the decade if not this century. If Gelsinger plays his cards right, Intel's market cap could quadruple to $1 trillion by 2026. Getting there will depend on Gelsinger implementing three key strategies. Here's what we think they are.

Intel. Reaching A $1 Trillion Market Cap In Five Years Depends On Three Key Strategies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

2020 turned out to be a record year for semiconductor equipment sales with revenues of North American vendors increasing 22.5% sequentially to reach an all time high of $29.7 billion. On the back of a step-function CapEx 2021 forecast increase by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC</a> and ever-increasing reports of chip shortages, particularly in the automotive industry, the outlook for the current year is also looking particularly strong. Here's our analysis of the sector and why we see it going from strength to strength.

2020 turned out to be a record year for semiconductor equipment sales with revenues of North American vendors increasing 22.5% sequentially to reach an all time high of $29.7 billion. On the back of a step-function CapEx 2021 forecast increase by TSMC and ever-increasing reports of chip shortages, particularly in the automotive industry, the outlook for the current year is also looking particularly strong. Here's our analysis of the sector and why we see it going from strength to strength.

Semiconductor WFE. Going From Strength To Strength.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

The SIA has posted the semiconductor market's year-end total.  Revenues were up 6.5% over 2019, impressively above the industry's 3.9% average annual growth.  This is even more impressive given that the year started off with a consumer slump as the pandemic emerged.

The SIA has posted the semiconductor market's year-end total.  Revenues were up 6.5% over 2019, impressively above the industry's 3.9% average annual growth.  This is even more impressive given that the year started off with a consumer slump as the pandemic emerged.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

SmartKarma Insight Providers Jim Handey and Will Keating have done excellent work detailing the Intel backstory, and outlining the current problems, I wanted to highlight the difficulty of the decisions facing Gelsinger, and the fact that while he has time to execute (his pay package will pay him  &gt;$100M if Intel’s stock is up 200% in 5 years), he doesn’t have the best track record as a CEO. We think a split up of Intel with the US government helping to fund manufacturing may be the best option for Intel. <div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

SmartKarma Insight Providers Jim Handey and Will Keating have done excellent work detailing the Intel backstory, and outlining the current problems, I wanted to highlight the difficulty of the decisions facing Gelsinger, and the fact that while he has time to execute (his pay package will pay him  &gt;$100M if Intel’s stock is up 200% in 5 years), he doesn’t have the best track record as a CEO. We think a split up of Intel with the US government helping to fund manufacturing may be the best option for Intel. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Intel: Are We Sure Gelsinger Is the Best Choice? Maybe Its Time for a Government Bailout.

President

Thomas Coughlin

Coughlin Associates

Intel's change in CEOs will likely result in changes in the company, such as selling off unprofitable acquisitions.  How will this impact the company's NSG memory products.   I would guess that Intel might decide to accelerate its sale of its NAND flash operations to SK hynix.  However, because of the strategic importance of the next generation server processors to compete against AMD.  I think it is much less likely that the company would sell its Optane products at this time.

Intel's change in CEOs will likely result in changes in the company, such as selling off unprofitable acquisitions.  How will this impact the company's NSG memory products.   I would guess that Intel might decide to accelerate its sale of its NAND flash operations to SK hynix.  However, because of the strategic importance of the next generation server processors to compete against AMD.  I think it is much less likely that the company would sell its Optane products at this time.

Intel CEO Change:  Implications for Company's Memory Products

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Intel. Reaching A $1 Trillion Market Cap In Five Years Depends On Three Key Strategies

Intel has the potential to be the turn around story of the decade. A $1 trillion market cap is achievable within 5 years, but it depends on the...

William Keating

Semiconductor WFE. Going From Strength To Strength.

Semiconductor WFE revenues grew by around 20% in 2020. We expect similar, if not stronger, growth in 2021. Here's why we see the sector going from...

William Keating

2020 Semiconductor Revenues Up 6.5%

How did the semiconductor market size up in 2020? This Insight shows that, despite COVID, the market enjoyed above-average growth, and appears...

Jim Handy

Intel: Are We Sure Gelsinger Is the Best Choice? Maybe Its Time for a Government Bailout.

Pat Gelsinger is being hailed as the perfect fit for Intel CEO, but his track record managing VMWare hasn't generated good returns for investors.

Aaron Gabin

Intel CEO Change: Implications for Company's Memory Products

Intel's change in CEOs will likely result in changes in the company, such as selling off unprofitable acquisitions. How will this impact the...

Thomas Coughlin

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