Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe TSMC shall decide whether to raise wafer price in one, or two month.</li>
<li>To our understanding, Intel has gotten the wafer allocation from TSMC for the next two years.</li>
<li>To our understanding, MediaTek is the first client to perform 4nm production, although the booking quantity is less than Apple iPhone.</li>
</ul>


We believe TSMC shall decide whether to raise wafer price in one, or two month.
To our understanding, Intel has gotten the wafer allocation from TSMC for the next two years.
To our understanding, MediaTek is the first client to perform 4nm production, although the booking quantity is less than Apple iPhone.


TSMC (TSM.US; 2303.TT): TSMC Shall Decide Whether to Raise Wafer Price in One, or Two Month.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Intel is promising is that it will advance five process nodes over the next four years, recapturing process leadership from TSMC by 2025, but significantly underspending TSMC in capex.</li>
<li>Overearning in datacenter is unwinding, leading to lower profits...overearning in PCs will unwind in 2022, leading to lower profits.</li>
<li>Lower profits and higher capex means less buybacks to support earnings growth. </li>
</ul>


Intel is promising is that it will advance five process nodes over the next four years, recapturing process leadership from TSMC by 2025, but significantly underspending TSMC in capex.
Overearning in datacenter is unwinding, leading to lower profits...overearning in PCs will unwind in 2022, leading to lower profits.
Lower profits and higher capex means less buybacks to support earnings growth. 


Intel 4Q21: Our Capex Is More Valuable than TSMC’s

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

<ul>
<li>From a market point of view, Intel's risk-reward profile appears more compelling than many of its high-flying peers.</li>
<li>From a business perspective, the company will likely continue to suffer in the short-term, however, strategic positioning is still strong.</li>
<li>What has historically been Intel's weak spot could prove to be its key competitive advantage over the coming years.</li>
</ul>


From a market point of view, Intel's risk-reward profile appears more compelling than many of its high-flying peers.
From a business perspective, the company will likely continue to suffer in the short-term, however, strategic positioning is still strong.
What has historically been Intel's weak spot could prove to be its key competitive advantage over the coming years.


Intel: Well-Positioned To Compete But Hardly A Short-Term Play

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>November semiconductor revenues set a record for the highest shipment month in the history of the industry</li>
<li>Year-To-Date revenues and unit shipments, excluding December, are still higher than any full year in the industry's history</li>
<li>There is plenty of room for this to continue, barring a global economic meltdown</li>
</ul>


November semiconductor revenues set a record for the highest shipment month in the history of the industry
Year-To-Date revenues and unit shipments, excluding December, are still higher than any full year in the industry's history
There is plenty of room for this to continue, barring a global economic meltdown


November Semiconductors Once Again Set Records

<ul>
<li>2022 is likely to be a very good year for semiconductors, with 6% revenue growth following outstanding 2021 growth of ~22%.</li>
<li>Demand is solid, and shortages are driving prices higher.  Since revenues are demand times price, all signs are positive.</li>
<li>The factors that caused the last collapse, in 2019, are not in place this time, indicating that a downturn is very unlikely.</li>
</ul>


2022 is likely to be a very good year for semiconductors, with 6% revenue growth following outstanding 2021 growth of ~22%.
Demand is solid, and shortages are driving prices higher.  Since revenues are demand times price, all signs are positive.
The factors that caused the last collapse, in 2019, are not in place this time, indicating that a downturn is very unlikely.


2022 High Conviction - Modest Semiconductor Growth

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

TSMC (TSM.US; 2303.TT): TSMC Shall Decide Whether to Raise Wafer Price in One, or Two Month.

TSMC has the lowest wafer price among top foundry players, i.e., TSMC, UMC, GF and SMIC. For 28nm, the generic price is ~US$2,500 in TSMC, but it...

Patrick Liao

Intel 4Q21: Our Capex Is More Valuable than TSMC’s

Intel's coming Analyst Day must have an earnings reset. Heightened spending and capex will remove buyback support for EPS growth and the longer...

Aaron Gabin

Intel: Well-Positioned To Compete But Hardly A Short-Term Play

From a market point of view, Intel's risk-reward profile appears more compelling than many of its high-flying peers. From a business perspective,...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

November Semiconductors Once Again Set Records

The semiconductor market once again set records in November, with 2021 revenues and unit shipments out-stripping all prior record years in its...

Jim Handy

2022 High Conviction - Modest Semiconductor Growth

Can today's semiconductor revenue growth continue, or will the market undergo another collapse? Objective Analysis calls for 6% growth, and shows...

Jim Handy

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