Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Objective Analysis has released its 2024 semiconductor forecast, calling for growth of below 5%</li>
<li>Other forecasters currently call for 11% to 17% growth, which would require another super cycle to accomplish</li>
<li>We do not see any event that will drive a 2024 super cycle, even with the current rapid adoption of AI in the data center</li>
</ul>


Objective Analysis has released its 2024 semiconductor forecast, calling for growth of below 5%
Other forecasters currently call for 11% to 17% growth, which would require another super cycle to accomplish
We do not see any event that will drive a 2024 super cycle, even with the current rapid adoption of AI in the data center


2024 High Conviction: Low Semiconductor Growth

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Marvell reported earnings recently, and I wanted to mention that at least before I continued onwards because that is a good context-setting event for the industry day.</li><li>Revenue exceeded expectations, but the mix beneath the results was illustrative.</li><li>Datacenter revenue grew 20% QoQ, cloud over 30% QoQ; while networking was strong, they guided for a 40% QoQ decline, consistent with networking OEM results.</li></ul>

Marvell reported earnings recently, and I wanted to mention that at least before I continued onwards because that is a good context-setting event for the industry day.Revenue exceeded expectations, but the mix beneath the results was illustrative.Datacenter revenue grew 20% QoQ, cloud over 30% QoQ; while networking was strong, they guided for a 40% QoQ decline, consistent with networking OEM results.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul>
<li>We have noticed several news outlets reporting that Shengyi Tech’s latest ultralow (UL) loss CCL product (Synamic9GN) has been certified by Nvidia and is expected to begin the next testing phase soon.</li>
<li>Entering Nvidia’s supply chain not only is a validation of the company’s R&amp;D capabilities, but also suggests the company is likely to see continued margin expansion as high-end products typically yield a higher margin.</li>
<li>Our positive outlook for the company is further bolstered by its extensive market reach and the potential for the CCL sector to recover more quickly than the PCB sector in 2024.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


We have noticed several news outlets reporting that Shengyi Tech’s latest ultralow (UL) loss CCL product (Synamic9GN) has been certified by Nvidia and is expected to begin the next testing phase soon.
Entering Nvidia’s supply chain not only is a validation of the company’s R&amp;D capabilities, but also suggests the company is likely to see continued margin expansion as high-end products typically yield a higher margin.
Our positive outlook for the company is further bolstered by its extensive market reach and the potential for the CCL sector to recover more quickly than the PCB sector in 2024.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shengyi Tech (600183 CH) – Expect Shengyi to Enter Nvidia Supply Chain in 2024

<ul><li>Huawei's role in offering alternatives to foreign tech’s is prominent, but it's important to highlight the contribution of other smaller yet significant players in the development of home-grown solutions in China. </li><li>Nvidia faces significant revenue decline in China in the upcoming year to comply with US export curbs. The company is determined to protect its substantial revenue from the China market and expand its global presence aggressively to make up for the potential revenue loss from the China market.</li><li>Nvidia CFO said “China and other affected destinations consistently contributed approximately 2025% of data center revenue over the past few quarters”.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Huawei's role in offering alternatives to foreign tech’s is prominent, but it's important to highlight the contribution of other smaller yet significant players in the development of home-grown solutions in China. Nvidia faces significant revenue decline in China in the upcoming year to comply with US export curbs. The company is determined to protect its substantial revenue from the China market and expand its global presence aggressively to make up for the potential revenue loss from the China market.Nvidia CFO said “China and other affected destinations consistently contributed approximately 2025% of data center revenue over the past few quarters”.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Semiconductor – Domestic AI Chip Makers Accelerating Their Push as Nvidia’s Alternatives

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the biggest sell while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> is the biggest buy.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 6.6% resulting in a one-way trade of US$682m. Couple of stocks have greater than 0.2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the biggest sell while NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is the biggest buy.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.6% resulting in a one-way trade of US$682m. Couple of stocks have greater than 0.2x ADV to trade.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

2024 High Conviction: Low Semiconductor Growth

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Jim Handy

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I went to this year’s Marvell Industry Analyst Day, and the topic de jour was AI. Compared to last year , this year’s industry day just discussed AI.

Fabricated Knowledge

Shengyi Tech (600183 CH) – Expect Shengyi to Enter Nvidia Supply Chain in 2024

We have noticed several news outlets reporting that Shengyi Tech’s latest ultralow (UL) loss CCL product (Synamic9GN) has been certified by Nvidia...

CMB International

China Semiconductor – Domestic AI Chip Makers Accelerating Their Push as Nvidia’s Alternatives

As the US tightens China’s access to advanced chips, we maintain our earlier view that domestic companies will look for Nvidia’s alternatives at a...

CMB International

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell

There are no constituent changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 6.6% resulting in a one-way trade of US$682m. Couple of stocks have greater than...

Brian Freitas

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