External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Shengyi Tech released its preliminary FY24 earnings. The company expects its NP to rise by 46.0-54.6% YoY to RMB1.7bn-1.8bn.</li><li>Mid-point NP of RMB1.75bn (+50.3% YoY) is lower than Bloomberg consensus/our estimate by 6.1%/3.3%.</li><li>Our forecast of RMB1.8bn is at the high-end of the range.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shengyi Tech released its preliminary FY24 earnings. The company expects its NP to rise by 46.0-54.6% YoY to RMB1.7bn-1.8bn.Mid-point NP of RMB1.75bn (+50.3% YoY) is lower than Bloomberg consensus/our estimate by 6.1%/3.3%.Our forecast of RMB1.8bn is at the high-end of the range.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shengyi Tech (600183 CH) - Embracing AI and Moving on to a New Growth Trajectory

<ul><li>Shengyi Tech announced 3Q24 results. Revenue was RMB5.1bn, up 14.5% YoY but down 1.7% QoQ, in-line with Bloomberg consensus.</li><li>GPM was 22.9%, up 1.1ppts from 2Q24, benefitting from favourable product mix and lowered material costs.</li><li>NP was RMB440mn, up 27.8% YoY but down 18.6% QoQ. NPM lowered to 8.6% (vs. 10.4% in 2Q24). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shengyi Tech announced 3Q24 results. Revenue was RMB5.1bn, up 14.5% YoY but down 1.7% QoQ, in-line with Bloomberg consensus.GPM was 22.9%, up 1.1ppts from 2Q24, benefitting from favourable product mix and lowered material costs.NP was RMB440mn, up 27.8% YoY but down 18.6% QoQ. NPM lowered to 8.6% (vs. 10.4% in 2Q24). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shengyi Tech (600183 CH) - PCB Outperformed CCL in 3Q; Margin Improved Sequentially

<ul><li>Shengyi Tech released its 1H24 earnings. Revenue improved by 22.2% YoY/10.6% HoH to RMB9.6bn, driven by solid demand of AI servers, growing auto orders and inventory restocking.</li><li>During the same period, GPM improved to 21.6% (vs. 19.3%/19.2% in 1H/2H23), benefiting from improving utilization and a favorable product mix towards high-margin products.</li><li>Consequently, NP increased by 68.0% YoY/53.1% HoH to RMB932mn. 1H24 revenue/NP accounted for 47%/43% of our FY24E forecast. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shengyi Tech released its 1H24 earnings. Revenue improved by 22.2% YoY/10.6% HoH to RMB9.6bn, driven by solid demand of AI servers, growing auto orders and inventory restocking.During the same period, GPM improved to 21.6% (vs. 19.3%/19.2% in 1H/2H23), benefiting from improving utilization and a favorable product mix towards high-margin products.Consequently, NP increased by 68.0% YoY/53.1% HoH to RMB932mn. 1H24 revenue/NP accounted for 47%/43% of our FY24E forecast. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shengyi Tech (600183 CH) - Solid 1H24 Earnings

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Alibaba released its 3QFY25 earnings (see our internet team report) with a significant step-up in capex plan for the next three years, the total of which is expected to surpass the company’s cumulative capex of the past decade, per mgmt., reaching as high as ~RMB120bn per year during CY2026-28E, according to our calculation.</li><li>We believe cloud service providers (CSPs) in China are trying to pick up the pace in capex in compute infrastructure to keep up with the relentless investment strides of overseas CSPs (Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google).</li><li>We believe the ripple effects of Alibaba’s increased capex plan will benefit domestic AI infrastructure supply chain names, such as Innolight (300308 CH, BUY, TP: RMB186) and Shengyi Tech (600183 CH, BUY, TP: RMB34.5), which supply critical components (e.g., high-speed optical transceivers, ultra-low-loss CCL) for datacenter buildout.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba released its 3QFY25 earnings (see our internet team report) with a significant step-up in capex plan for the next three years, the total of which is expected to surpass the company’s cumulative capex of the past decade, per mgmt., reaching as high as ~RMB120bn per year during CY2026-28E, according to our calculation.We believe cloud service providers (CSPs) in China are trying to pick up the pace in capex in compute infrastructure to keep up with the relentless investment strides of overseas CSPs (Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google).We believe the ripple effects of Alibaba’s increased capex plan will benefit domestic AI infrastructure supply chain names, such as Innolight (300308 CH, BUY, TP: RMB186) and Shengyi Tech (600183 CH, BUY, TP: RMB34.5), which supply critical components (e.g., high-speed optical transceivers, ultra-low-loss CCL) for datacenter buildout.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors - Thematic Investing and Megatrends

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

China

Shengyi Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets electronic components. The Company's products include copper coated panels, printed circuit boards, and other related products.

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Shengyi Technology (600183 CH)

Shengyi Tech (600183 CH) - Embracing AI and Moving on to a New Growth Trajectory

Shengyi Tech released its preliminary FY24 earnings. The company expects its NP to rise by 46.0-54.6% YoY to RMB1.7bn-1.8bn.

CMB International

Shengyi Tech (600183 CH) - PCB Outperformed CCL in 3Q; Margin Improved Sequentially

Shengyi Tech announced 3Q24 results. Revenue was RMB5.1bn, up 14.5% YoY but down 1.7% QoQ, in-line with Bloomberg consensus.

CMB International

Shengyi Tech (600183 CH) - Solid 1H24 Earnings

Shengyi Tech released its 1H24 earnings. Revenue improved by 22.2% YoY/10.6% HoH to RMB9.6bn, driven by solid demand of AI servers, growing auto...

CMB International

Semiconductors - Thematic Investing and Megatrends

We believe cloud service providers (CSPs) in China are trying to pick up the pace in capex in compute infrastructure to keep up with the relentless...

CMB International

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

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