Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Not surprisingly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>'s IFA <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16266518153870&amp;sequence=2021078813" target="_blank" rel="noopener">says</a> the Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> is "<em>appropriate</em>". Equally unsurprising, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>'s IFA <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16266518153760&amp;sequence=2021078811" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has</a> the opinion that the shareholders should reject the Tender Offer from Gulf.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Not surprisingly, Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)'s IFA says the Offer from Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) is "appropriate". Equally unsurprising, Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)'s IFA has the opinion that the shareholders should reject the Tender Offer from Gulf.



Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


As always, more below the fold.


StubWorld: IFAs Say "Yea" For Intouch, "Nay" For AIS

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Toshiba, Boral Ltd, Yageo/Chilisin, Microstrategy

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> trading at terms to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a>'s Offer...</p>
<p><em><strong>...What's the play here?</strong></em></p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...




With Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) trading at terms to Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)'s Offer...
...What's the play here?




Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


StubWorld: Gulf's Curious Offer For Intouch Now Open

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Telekomunikasi Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a> announced its results this week, which on the face of it do not look exciting, with revenues declining -0.7% YoY, EBITDA up by +0.5%, and net income up by +2.6%.</p>
<p>Beneath these headline numbers, there is a more compelling story, with Indihome seeing +25% YoY revenue growth driven by increasing subscribers and higher ARPU. Data traffic seeing +59.7% YoY growth 1Q2021, with the digital business now accounting for 76.9% of revenues in 1Q2021. </p>
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<p>The legacy SMS, fixed, and cellular voice declined by -25.4% to IDR5.3tn due to the cannibalisation from OTT applications such as Whatsapp. </p>
<p>The mobile segment in Indonesia remains competitive with the major players continuing to offer unlimited plans and other promotional plans but Telkom still realised data revenue growth of +0.4% YoY whilst digital services grew by +22.6% YoY, as the company added new services.</p>
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<section class="figure">After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>'s investment in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek</a>, the two companies have been integrating various aspects of their services to provide users with new benefits, as well as helping MSMEs to digitalise their businesses.</section>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a> continues to augment the network reach and quality by increasing the number of BTS towers.</section>
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<section class="figure"> The wholesale and international business is supported by the tower and data centre business, with the potential for further growth from the rollout of 5G technology.</section>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a> remains a core proxy to Indonesia's digital economy and its growing appetite for data and broadband services. The company trades on 5.6x FY2021E EV/EBITDA and 4.8x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus the 5-year average of 6.2x forward EV/EBITDA, which makes it attractive even without any digital re-rating.</p>
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Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ) announced its results this week, which on the face of it do not look exciting, with revenues declining -0.7% YoY, EBITDA up by +0.5%, and net income up by +2.6%.
Beneath these headline numbers, there is a more compelling story, with Indihome seeing +25% YoY revenue growth driven by increasing subscribers and higher ARPU. Data traffic seeing +59.7% YoY growth 1Q2021, with the digital business now accounting for 76.9% of revenues in 1Q2021. 

The legacy SMS, fixed, and cellular voice declined by -25.4% to IDR5.3tn due to the cannibalisation from OTT applications such as Whatsapp. 
The mobile segment in Indonesia remains competitive with the major players continuing to offer unlimited plans and other promotional plans but Telkom still realised data revenue growth of +0.4% YoY whilst digital services grew by +22.6% YoY, as the company added new services.


After Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)'s investment in Gojek, the two companies have been integrating various aspects of their services to provide users with new benefits, as well as helping MSMEs to digitalise their businesses.




Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ) continues to augment the network reach and quality by increasing the number of BTS towers.




 The wholesale and international business is supported by the tower and data centre business, with the potential for further growth from the rollout of 5G technology.





Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ) remains a core proxy to Indonesia's digital economy and its growing appetite for data and broadband services. The company trades on 5.6x FY2021E EV/EBITDA and 4.8x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus the 5-year average of 6.2x forward EV/EBITDA, which makes it attractive even without any digital re-rating.













Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - The Trend Is Digital

<div>
<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Last Friday, 160mn shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> - a 4.99% stake - traded after the close at Bt64.86/share. Investors de-risking? Temasek exiting (or adding)? Or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> making an early grab ahead of its EGM?</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Last Friday, 160mn shares of Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) - a 4.99% stake - traded after the close at Bt64.86/share. Investors de-risking? Temasek exiting (or adding)? Or Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) making an early grab ahead of its EGM?



Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.



These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)

StubWorld: IFAs Say "Yea" For Intouch, "Nay" For AIS

I would still avoid Intouch here, but I would not short it, or short tender the stock. Best to wait until the close of the Offer to get a clearer...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Toshiba, Boral Ltd, Yageo/Chilisin, Microstrategy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Gulf's Curious Offer For Intouch Now Open

I would avoid Intouch here, but I would not short it. I think we have to wait until the close of the Offer to get a better idea of what Gulf's next...

David Blennerhassett

Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - The Trend Is Digital

Telkom Indonesia's recent 1Q2021 results reflect a competitive environment but also its growing strength in its digital business, which continues...

Angus Mackintosh

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StubWorld: IFAs Say "Yea" For Intouch, "Nay" For AIS

I would still avoid Intouch here, but I would not short it, or short tender the stock. Best to wait until the close of the Offer to get a clearer...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Toshiba, Boral Ltd, Yageo/Chilisin, Microstrategy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Gulf's Curious Offer For Intouch Now Open

I would avoid Intouch here, but I would not short it. I think we have to wait until the close of the Offer to get a better idea of what Gulf's next...

David Blennerhassett

Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - The Trend Is Digital

Telkom Indonesia's recent 1Q2021 results reflect a competitive environment but also its growing strength in its digital business, which continues...

Angus Mackintosh

StubWorld: Intouch's Big Share Transfer

The vote and the waiver are a formality. Trading super tight at 1.2%/4.4% gross/annualised. I'd avoid the arb here and wait for any weakness...

David Blennerhassett