Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maintain our HOLD rating at Bt227,based on DCF implying 24xPE’22.Current share price already factored in positive outlook on 5G development and ARPU uplift. We believe ADVANC will see steady 5G</li>
<li>Expect blended ARPU will show positive growth in 1Q22onwards. ADVANC expects postpaid ARPU to increase from mass 5G adoption that will occur in 2022-23.Prepaid segment continue seeing intense pricing war</li>
<li>As of now, we believe ADVANC’s 2022 net profit will steadily increase from the gradual recovery in tourism and the reversal in ARPU from 5G subscribers.</li>
</ul>


Maintain our HOLD rating at Bt227,based on DCF implying 24xPE’22.Current share price already factored in positive outlook on 5G development and ARPU uplift. We believe ADVANC will see steady 5G
Expect blended ARPU will show positive growth in 1Q22onwards. ADVANC expects postpaid ARPU to increase from mass 5G adoption that will occur in 2022-23.Prepaid segment continue seeing intense pricing war
As of now, we believe ADVANC’s 2022 net profit will steadily increase from the gradual recovery in tourism and the reversal in ARPU from 5G subscribers.


ADVANC: 5G Mass Adoption Will Lead to ARPU Growth This Year

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> have moved up over the last 8 trading session to trade at or closer to their VTO prices.</li>
<li>Trading at the VTO price, we recommend selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> rather than run the risk of deal break or waiting 3-5 months to be paid out.</li>
<li>A safer trade is to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> and sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>. There will be index trades to do if the merger is approved. </li>
</ul>



Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) and True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) have moved up over the last 8 trading session to trade at or closer to their VTO prices.
Trading at the VTO price, we recommend selling Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) rather than run the risk of deal break or waiting 3-5 months to be paid out.
A safer trade is to buy True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) and sell Total Access Communication (DTAC TB). There will be index trades to do if the merger is approved. 


DTAC/TRUE Merger: Stocks Trading Near Their VTO Prices

<ul>
<li>Downgrade ADVANC to HOLD from BUY rating with a TP of Bt227 due to limited upside.Share price soared by 14% since 19 November 2021 is due to magnified positive industry</li>
<li>We expect 10% upside to our target price from merger sensitivity analysis as ARPU growth may increase rapidly from limited consumer choice and 5G features.</li>
<li>We expect 4Q21 core profit at Bt6.6bn (-4%YoY, flat QoQ), as rising subscriber base is continuously offset by declining ARPU.</li>
</ul>


Downgrade ADVANC to HOLD from BUY rating with a TP of Bt227 due to limited upside.Share price soared by 14% since 19 November 2021 is due to magnified positive industry
We expect 10% upside to our target price from merger sensitivity analysis as ARPU growth may increase rapidly from limited consumer choice and 5G features.
We expect 4Q21 core profit at Bt6.6bn (-4%YoY, flat QoQ), as rising subscriber base is continuously offset by declining ARPU.


ADVANC: Opportunities Fully Priced in for 2022, Downgrade to HOLD

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, the portfolio has gained 94% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 37%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray
Since inception, the portfolio has gained 94% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 37%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 35

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Thai telcos <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> have agreed to an amalgamation.</li>
<li>Telenor Asia, DTAC's parent, and Charoen Pokphand Holding, the parent firm of True, will make conditional voluntary tender offers for all shares in DTAC and True respectively.</li>
<li>A key condition to the merger is approval from the telco regulator, the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission.</li>
</ul>


Thai telcos True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) and Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) have agreed to an amalgamation.
Telenor Asia, DTAC's parent, and Charoen Pokphand Holding, the parent firm of True, will make conditional voluntary tender offers for all shares in DTAC and True respectively.
A key condition to the merger is approval from the telco regulator, the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission.


Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC-R TB)

ADVANC: 5G Mass Adoption Will Lead to ARPU Growth This Year

Maintain our HOLD rating at Bt227, based on DCF implying 24xPE’22. Current share price already factored in positive outlook on 5G development and...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

DTAC/TRUE Merger: Stocks Trading Near Their VTO Prices

DTAC is trading at its VTO price while TRUE is trading 3% lower than its VTO price. The risk/reward has now shifted and we would look to sell DTAC...

Brian Freitas

ADVANC: Opportunities Fully Priced in for 2022, Downgrade to HOLD

Downgrade ADVANC to HOLD from BUY rating with a TP of Bt227 due to limited upside. Share price soared by 14% since 19 November 2021 is due to...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 35

Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas based upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or...

A. Stotz Investment Research

True/DTAC Merger. Optional VTOs

I would not chase this here. With the top two players potentially controlling ~96% of the market, even the Thai regulator might be reticent to...

David Blennerhassett

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