IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Press reports (<a href="https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40016835" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and <a href="https://www.thaipbsworld.com/court-rejects-petition-to-delay-merger-of-dtac-and-true/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>) suggest that Administrative Court has ruled out the request to suspend the DTAC/True merger and that the regulation which repeals NBTC’s veto rights is lawful.</li>
<li>This development suggests that the NBTC will apply remedial conditions rather than block the merger. The timeline for the satisfaction of VTO conditions is from late June to early August. </li>
<li>With the Court ruling increasing the probability of a successful merger, it is attractive to buy the current share price ratio of 9.698x vs the implied swap ratio of 10.221x.</li>
</ul>


Press reports (here and here) suggest that Administrative Court has ruled out the request to suspend the DTAC/True merger and that the regulation which repeals NBTC’s veto rights is lawful.
This development suggests that the NBTC will apply remedial conditions rather than block the merger. The timeline for the satisfaction of VTO conditions is from late June to early August. 
With the Court ruling increasing the probability of a successful merger, it is attractive to buy the current share price ratio of 9.698x vs the implied swap ratio of 10.221x.


DTAC/True Merger: Administrative Court Ruling a Positive

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Various recent media reports have indicated that Singtel aims to sell 2-4% of its stake in Bharti Airtel. Singtel has officially dismissed the reports as media speculation.</li>
<li>There have been subsequent reports in the Indian media about the founder, Sunil Mittal, looking to raise around US$2bn in debt, to finance an increase in his stake in Airtel.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the possible deal and its implications.</li>
</ul>


Various recent media reports have indicated that Singtel aims to sell 2-4% of its stake in Bharti Airtel. Singtel has officially dismissed the reports as media speculation.
There have been subsequent reports in the Indian media about the founder, Sunil Mittal, looking to raise around US$2bn in debt, to finance an increase in his stake in Airtel.
In this note, we talk about the possible deal and its implications.


Bharti Singtel Possible Selldown/Holdco Trade - Singtel Appears to Be Ready for Cashing in US$1-2bn

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-18/hong-kong-telco-hkbn-said-to-draw-interest-from-stonepeak-pag" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US)</a> and PAG are carrying out due diligence on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, with a view to launching a privatisation bid.</li>
<li>HKBN has a relatively concentrated shareholder register which suggests a requirement for a high takeover premium.</li>
<li>Precedent transactions suggest a privatisation forward EV/EBITDA multiple of at least 10x, implying a minimum offer price of HK$11.80 per share, a 23% premium to the last close. </li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reportedKKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US) and PAG are carrying out due diligence on HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), with a view to launching a privatisation bid.
HKBN has a relatively concentrated shareholder register which suggests a requirement for a high takeover premium.
Precedent transactions suggest a privatisation forward EV/EBITDA multiple of at least 10x, implying a minimum offer price of HK$11.80 per share, a 23% premium to the last close. 


<ul>
<li>At the last close prices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a>’s gross spread to the dividend-adjusted VTO price is 5.6% and 11.1%, respectively.  </li>
<li>The merger has received DTAC and True shareholder approvals. The merger hinges on regulatory approval.</li>
<li>The LONG True and SHORT DTAC trade is attractive, with the current spread of 5.5% trading above the average spread since the merger announcement of 3.4% (ex. transaction costs).</li>
</ul>


At the last close prices, Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) and True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)’s gross spread to the dividend-adjusted VTO price is 5.6% and 11.1%, respectively.  
The merger has received DTAC and True shareholder approvals. The merger hinges on regulatory approval.
The LONG True and SHORT DTAC trade is attractive, with the current spread of 5.5% trading above the average spread since the merger announcement of 3.4% (ex. transaction costs).


Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY rating with TP of Bt259 based on DCF,implying 23.8xPE’22E. Analyst meeting came out with slightly negative news on 2022 prospects. DTAC and TRUE fiercely competing for market share</li>
<li>We expect to see soft earnings recovery in 2Q22 from weak top-line growth.Price competition will remain intense, but the strong performances in broadband and CCIID segment will support revenue growth</li>
<li>Maintain our 2022 earnings at Bt29bn(+9%YoY).We still believe that in 2H22, 5G ARPU uplift and recovery in tourism to boost consumer confidence will help ARPU reverse and support earnings growth.</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY rating with TP of Bt259 based on DCF,implying 23.8xPE’22E. Analyst meeting came out with slightly negative news on 2022 prospects. DTAC and TRUE fiercely competing for market share
We expect to see soft earnings recovery in 2Q22 from weak top-line growth.Price competition will remain intense, but the strong performances in broadband and CCIID segment will support revenue growth
Maintain our 2022 earnings at Bt29bn(+9%YoY).We still believe that in 2H22, 5G ARPU uplift and recovery in tourism to boost consumer confidence will help ARPU reverse and support earnings growth.


ADVANC: 1Q22 ARPU Decline Could Be the Trend Throughout 2022

Thailand

Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited is granted a 25-year concession expiring the year 2015 by the Telephone Organization of Thailand to provide cellular phone services.  The Company provides analog mobile phone services through the Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT900) network, and digital phone services through the Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) network.

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Advanced Info Service (ADVANC-R TB)

DTAC/True Merger: Administrative Court Ruling a Positive

With the Court ruling increasing the probability of a successful merger, it is attractive to buy the current share price ratio of 9.698x vs the...

Arun George

Bharti Singtel Possible Selldown/Holdco Trade - Singtel Appears to Be Ready for Cashing in US$1-2bn

Various recent media reports have indicated that Singtel aims to sell 2-4% of its stake in Bharti Airtel. In this note, we talk about the possible...

Sumeet Singh

HKBN in the Crosshairs of KKR and PAG

Bloomberg reported that KKR and PAG could launch a privatisation bid. Precedent transactions suggest a privatisation forward EV/EBITDA multiple of...

Arun George

DTAC/True Merger VTO Risk/Reward

The DTAC/True merger hinges on regulatory approval. The LONG True and SHORT DTAC trade is attractive, with the current spread to the div-adjusted...

Arun George

ADVANC: 1Q22 ARPU Decline Could Be the Trend Throughout 2022

Maintain BUY rating with TP of Bt259 based on DCF, implying 23.8xPE’22E. Analyst meeting came out with slightly negative news on 2022 prospects....

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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