Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The MSCI revised the Adani Group weighting after reviewing FF. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a>affected. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green (ADANIGR IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:247:1" rel="noopener">Adani Power (ADANI IN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-ports-special-economic-zone-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:246:1" rel="noopener">Adani Ports (ADSEZ IN)</a> not affected. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a> is dirt cheap at 0.3x P/B. It is a China re-opening play. Plus the company is buying back shares. </li>
<li>The Nikkei didn't write an article on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> when everyone else did. They waited another day, with what appears to be a zinger on price at "about ¥2trln". </li>
</ul>


The MSCI revised the Adani Group weighting after reviewing FF. Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)affected. Adani Green (ADANIGR IN), Adani Power (ADANI IN), and Adani Ports (ADSEZ IN) not affected. 

Hongkong Land (HKL SP) is dirt cheap at 0.3x P/B. It is a China re-opening play. Plus the company is buying back shares. 
The Nikkei didn't write an article on Toshiba (6502 JP) when everyone else did. They waited another day, with what appears to be a zinger on price at "about ¥2trln". 


Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The synergies with group to drive further cost optimization which should see further improvement in margins.</li><li>Business initiatives are expected to further bring down operating cost, reduce clinker factor, reduce logistics cost, improve sale of blended cement and expand EBITDA margin.</li><li>We see EBITDA margins of the company to improve from current 9.5% to 15.5% in FY25E.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The synergies with group to drive further cost optimization which should see further improvement in margins.Business initiatives are expected to further bring down operating cost, reduce clinker factor, reduce logistics cost, improve sale of blended cement and expand EBITDA margin.We see EBITDA margins of the company to improve from current 9.5% to 15.5% in FY25E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ACC Limited - Better Synergies To Drive Growth. Maintain BUY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Healthy volumes; mixed pricing trend across regions: We estimate that our coverage universe of 15 companies will deliver 10/8% YoY/QoQ volume growth (three-year CAGR: +6%) in Q3FY23</li><li>We expect average utilisation of ~77% vs 72/74% QoQ/YoY. Cement prices increased ~2% QoQ across India in Q3</li><li>Prices increased ~4-6% QoQ each in the east and south regions, there was 1-2% rise in the west, while the north was flattish and the central region witnessed a ~1% correction QoQ</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Healthy volumes; mixed pricing trend across regions: We estimate that our coverage universe of 15 companies will deliver 10/8% YoY/QoQ volume growth (three-year CAGR: +6%) in Q3FY23We expect average utilisation of ~77% vs 72/74% QoQ/YoY. Cement prices increased ~2% QoQ across India in Q3Prices increased ~4-6% QoQ each in the east and south regions, there was 1-2% rise in the west, while the north was flattish and the central region witnessed a ~1% correction QoQContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement (Q3FY23 Results Preview): Decent volume offtake, recovery in profitability

<ul><li>Traditionally, H2 (second half of the year) stands out to be a favourable period for cement producers from a demand perspective as it revives after the end of the monsoon season.</li><li>Post witnessing soft demand in Oct’22 due to festivity, demand revived sharply in Nov’22 and the trend continued in Dec’22 as well, which was driven by higher retail and institutional demand.</li><li>Institutional demand was more robust led by increasing construction activity in most of the regions as Q2FY23 had been impacted due to an extended monsoon.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Traditionally, H2 (second half of the year) stands out to be a favourable period for cement producers from a demand perspective as it revives after the end of the monsoon season.Post witnessing soft demand in Oct’22 due to festivity, demand revived sharply in Nov’22 and the trend continued in Dec’22 as well, which was driven by higher retail and institutional demand.Institutional demand was more robust led by increasing construction activity in most of the regions as Q2FY23 had been impacted due to an extended monsoon.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement Q3fy23 Preview - Cost Pressure to Ease, Demand Outlook Encouraging

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>We expect 5 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-100-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36051:1" rel="noopener">Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance. The review period ends on 31 January and the announcement should be late February.</li>
<li>The largest impact of passive trading will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries (PAG IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biocon-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:398:1" rel="noopener">Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphasis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7672:1" rel="noopener">Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abb-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8703:1" rel="noopener">ABB India Ltd (ABB IN)</a>. </li>
<li>There are quite a few overlaps with the AMFI reclassification of stocks and there could be buying and selling from active fund managers over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


We expect 5 changes to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) at the March rebalance. The review period ends on 31 January and the announcement should be late February.
The largest impact of passive trading will be on Page Industries (PAG IN), Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN), Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) and ABB India Ltd (ABB IN). 
There are quite a few overlaps with the AMFI reclassification of stocks and there could be buying and selling from active fund managers over the next few weeks.


NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Active Trading Before Passive Trading Kicks In

India

ACC Limited  manufactures a range of cements and blended cements. The Company also manufactures gypsum and refractory products such as Brown Tabular Alumina. The Company provides turnkey and application consulting services for setting up and operating cement plants and refractories. The Company owns cement plants throughout India.

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ACC Ltd (ACC IN)

Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

ACC Limited - Better Synergies To Drive Growth. Maintain BUY

Business initiatives are expected to further bring down operating cost, reduce clinker factor, reduce logistics cost, improve sale of blended...

Axis Direct

Cement (Q3FY23 Results Preview): Decent volume offtake, recovery in profitability

We estimate that our coverage universe of 15 companies will deliver 10/8% YoY/QoQ volume growth (three-year CAGR: +6%) in Q3FY23

HDFC Securities

Cement Q3fy23 Preview - Cost Pressure to Ease, Demand Outlook Encouraging

Traditionally, H2 (second half of the year) stands out to be a favourable period for cement producers from a demand perspective as it revives after...

Axis Direct

NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Active Trading Before Passive Trading Kicks In

There should be 5 changes to the NIFTY100 in March. Quite a few names overlap with the potential AMFI reclassification of stocks which will result...

Brian Freitas

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