Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.</li>
<li>The NIFTY Next 50 methodology was supposed to change in June 2023 but this has been kept on hold for now. This change could still take place before September 2023.</li>
<li>The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to complete in the next few weeks and that could trigger intra-review index changes.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.
The NIFTY Next 50 methodology was supposed to change in June 2023 but this has been kept on hold for now. This change could still take place before September 2023.
The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to complete in the next few weeks and that could trigger intra-review index changes.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Non F&O Stocks Dilemma and Replacements for HDFC

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Q4FY23 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies</li><li>Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 13%/9% YoY across the HSIE coverage (~215 stocks), their two-year CAGR being 19%/15%</li><li>Our coverage universe saw strong YoY revenue growth in auto, lending financials, industrials, IT, cement and power sectors</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q4FY23 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companiesAggregate revenue/PAT grew by 13%/9% YoY across the HSIE coverage (~215 stocks), their two-year CAGR being 19%/15%Our coverage universe saw strong YoY revenue growth in auto, lending financials, industrials, IT, cement and power sectorsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India Equity Strategy - Banks Continue to Lead the Pack; Profitability Improves for Most Sectors

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> merger could complete earlier than previously expected, triggering intra-review index replacements.</li>
<li>Separately, I have presented some interesting new trading ideas involving some of the index change candidates, and I discuss the status of pre-existing trade ideas.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.
The HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) - HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) merger could complete earlier than previously expected, triggering intra-review index replacements.
Separately, I have presented some interesting new trading ideas involving some of the index change candidates, and I discuss the status of pre-existing trade ideas.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Some Interesting Long-Short Trades

<ul><li>Ambuja Cement: We maintain our ADD rating on Ambuja Cements with a revised TP INR 395/share</li><li>During Q5FY23 (financial year moved to Mar vs Dec), it reported only 5% QoQ standalone volume growth (capacity constraints)</li><li>Unitary EBITDA recovered INR 145/MT QoQ to INR 973/MT, led by continued opex reductions, which more than offset for lower NSR</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ambuja Cement: We maintain our ADD rating on Ambuja Cements with a revised TP INR 395/shareDuring Q5FY23 (financial year moved to Mar vs Dec), it reported only 5% QoQ standalone volume growth (capacity constraints)Unitary EBITDA recovered INR 145/MT QoQ to INR 973/MT, led by continued opex reductions, which more than offset for lower NSRContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ACC reported Revenue/Volume growth of 8%/10%YoY (above expectations).</li><li>EBITDA/APAT degrew by 26%/46% YoY respectively due to higher costs and exceptional items during the quarter.</li><li>However, on a QoQ basis,, the company reported better financial performance driven by higher volumes and with cost optimization measures undertaken, the company enjoyed operating leverage benefits.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ACC reported Revenue/Volume growth of 8%/10%YoY (above expectations).EBITDA/APAT degrew by 26%/46% YoY respectively due to higher costs and exceptional items during the quarter.However, on a QoQ basis,, the company reported better financial performance driven by higher volumes and with cost optimization measures undertaken, the company enjoyed operating leverage benefits.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ACC Limited - Robust Demand Outlook; Better Synergies To Drive Growth

India

ACC Limited  manufactures a range of cements and blended cements. The Company also manufactures gypsum and refractory products such as Brown Tabular Alumina. The Company provides turnkey and application consulting services for setting up and operating cement plants and refractories. The Company owns cement plants throughout India.

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ACC Ltd (ACC IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Non F&O Stocks Dilemma and Replacements for HDFC

LTIMindtree and Jindal Steel could be NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 intra-review replacements for HDFC and these changes could be implemented at the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

India Equity Strategy - Banks Continue to Lead the Pack; Profitability Improves for Most Sectors

Q4FY23 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies. Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 13%/9%...

HDFC Securities

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Some Interesting Long-Short Trades

Apart from the HDFC merger-related intra-review change, there could be five ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 100 index (and the NIFTY Next 50 index) but I...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSIE Results Daily: Ambuja Cement, ACC

During Q5FY23 (financial year moved to Mar vs Dec), it reported only 5% QoQ standalone volume growth (capacity constraints)

HDFC Securities

ACC Limited - Robust Demand Outlook; Better Synergies To Drive Growth

ACC reported Revenue/Volume growth of 8%/10%YoY (above expectations). EBITDA/APAT degrew by 26%/46% YoY respectively due to higher costs and...

Axis Direct

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