Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1" rel="noopener">Shree Cement (SRCM IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 29 September.</li>
<li>We had forecast the change in April and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> is up over 60% since then while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1" rel="noopener">Shree Cement (SRCM IN)</a> is down a bit.</li>
<li>Passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> trackers will need to buy over 7% of the real float on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a>. The stock could continue to move higher. </li>
</ul>



Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) will replace Shree Cement (SRCM IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) at the close of trading on 29 September.
We had forecast the change in April and Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) is up over 60% since then while Shree Cement (SRCM IN) is down a bit.
Passive NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) trackers will need to buy over 7% of the real float on Adani Enterprises (ADE IN). The stock could continue to move higher. 


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance: Adani Enterprises Replaces Shree Cement

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india-lic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15618:1" rel="noopener">Tata Power (TPWR IN)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nmdc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2016:1" rel="noopener">Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piramal-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14158:1" rel="noopener">Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN)</a> at the close on 5 August.</li>
<li>In September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-wilmar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34763:1" rel="noopener">Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-railway-catering-and-tourism-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33951:1" rel="noopener">Indian Railway Catering and Tourism (IRCTC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-aeronautics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26747:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HNAL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphasis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7672:1" rel="noopener">Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN)</a> are potential inclusions.</li>
<li>At over 4 days of deliverable volume to trade, the impact is especially large on  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-lifesciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12914:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lupin-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17910:1" rel="noopener">Lupin Ltd (LPC IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN) and Tata Power (TPWR IN) will replace Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN) and Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) at the close on 5 August.
In September, Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN), Indian Railway Catering and Tourism (IRCTC IN), Bharat Electronics (BHE IN), Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HNAL IN) and Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) are potential inclusions.
At over 4 days of deliverable volume to trade, the impact is especially large on  Bharat Electronics (BHE IN), Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) and Lupin Ltd (LPC IN). 


NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in August, Then 5 More in September

<ul>
<li>With over 90% of the review period complete, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> is a high probability inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> and will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1" rel="noopener">Shree Cement (SRCM IN)</a>. </li>
<li>We estimate passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> trackers will need to buy nearly 7% of the real float on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> and the stock should continue to outperform. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-transmission-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26712:1" rel="noopener">Adani Transmission (ADANIT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART)</a> have higher average free float market caps and could be included if added to the F&amp;O segment.</li>
</ul>


With over 90% of the review period complete, Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) is a high probability inclusion to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and will replace Shree Cement (SRCM IN). 
We estimate passive NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) trackers will need to buy nearly 7% of the real float on Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) and the stock should continue to outperform. 

Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR), Adani Transmission (ADANIT) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART) have higher average free float market caps and could be included if added to the F&amp;O segment.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Should Replace Shree Cement

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><ul><li>High volume growth on a low base YoY: We estimate that 15 companies under coverage would report ~7% QoQ aggregate seasonal sales volume decline.</li><li>Mixed realisation gains QoQ: While energy cost continues to rise QoQ, the industry could not fully pass on the inflation across all regions.</li><li>Cost inflation elevated: We estimate that overall fuel costs would soar 7/42% QoQ/YoY amid rising imported coal and pet coke prices.</li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: none;"><li> </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p></div></div></div>

High volume growth on a low base YoY: We estimate that 15 companies under coverage would report ~7% QoQ aggregate seasonal sales volume decline.Mixed realisation gains QoQ: While energy cost continues to rise QoQ, the industry could not fully pass on the inflation across all regions.Cost inflation elevated: We estimate that overall fuel costs would soar 7/42% QoQ/YoY amid rising imported coal and pet coke prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement - Cost Inflation Continues, Margin Contracts

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

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<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Weak seasonal demand and decline in prices against the backdrop of high input costs would mean muted realizations</li><li>The trend in cement pricing has been discouraging so far.</li><li>The news regarding CCI’s investigation on cement companies might be a factor for subdued pricing.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Weak seasonal demand and decline in prices against the backdrop of high input costs would mean muted realizationsThe trend in cement pricing has been discouraging so far.The news regarding CCI’s investigation on cement companies might be a factor for subdued pricing.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement Sector - Elevated Energy Costs to Weigh on Margins

India

ACC Limited  manufactures a range of cements and blended cements. The Company also manufactures gypsum and refractory products such as Brown Tabular Alumina. The Company provides turnkey and application consulting services for setting up and operating cement plants and refractories. The Company owns cement plants throughout India.

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ACC Ltd (ACC IN)

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance: Adani Enterprises Replaces Shree Cement

Adani Ent will replace Shree Cement in the NIFTY50 at the close on 29 Sep. With passives needing to buy over 28 days of delivery volume and 7% of...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in August, Then 5 More in September

There are two index changes at the close on 5 August, then there should be 5 more at the close on 29 September. Passive funds will have over 4-5...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Should Replace Shree Cement

Adani Enterprises should replace Shree Cement in the NIFTY50 Index at the close on 29 September. Passive NIFTY50 trackers will need to buy nearly...

Brian Freitas

Cement - Cost Inflation Continues, Margin Contracts

High volume growth on a low base YoY: We estimate that 15 companies under coverage would report ~7% QoQ aggregate seasonal sales volume decline.

HDFC Securities

Cement Sector - Elevated Energy Costs to Weigh on Margins

1QFY23 earnings for the cement sector will be muted as we expect margin pressure to continue in the near term due to higher operating costs,...

Nirmal Bang

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