IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a> disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a> at HK$1.85 per share, a 10.1% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The pre-condition is Xinjiang Xintai shareholder approval. Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The price is final but light.</li>
<li>The total privatisation cost is HK$2,704 million vs AAG’s net cash of HK$2,270 million. The offeror is betting that minorities will not be able to launch a concerted NO vote.</li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation offer from Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH) at HK$1.85 per share, a 10.1% premium to the undisturbed price.
The pre-condition is Xinjiang Xintai shareholder approval. Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The price is final but light.
The total privatisation cost is HK$2,704 million vs AAG’s net cash of HK$2,270 million. The offeror is betting that minorities will not be able to launch a concerted NO vote.


AAG Energy (2686 HK): Xinjiang Xintai’s Light but Final HK$1.85 Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>There are 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Five new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-abu-dhabi-bank-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28945:1" rel="noopener">First Abu Dhabi Bank</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc-f07a1272-e0fc-49e2-8090-1a08715a40a1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22649:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-projects-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26785:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihara-science-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9870:1" rel="noopener">Ihara Science (5999 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iwasaki-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13072:1" rel="noopener">Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Five new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Newmont/Newcrest; First Abu Dhabi Bank/Standard Chartered,  Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP); Ihara Science (5999 JP), and Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP).
Key updates took place for: Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), and Halcyon Agri (HACL SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newmont/Newcrest, StanChart, Boustead Proj., Ihara, Iwasaki

<ul>
<li>There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Four new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: tender offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanematsu-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15767:1" rel="noopener">Kanematsu Electronics (8096 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanematsu-sustech-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18499:1" rel="noopener">Kanematsu Sustech (7961 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18567:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Electric (6641 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techno-associe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3893:1" rel="noopener">Techno Associe (8249 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/o2micro-international-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36418:1" rel="noopener">O2Micro International (OIIM US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: tender offers for Kanematsu Electronics (8096 JP), Kanematsu Sustech (7961 JP), Nissin Electric (6641 JP), and Techno Associe (8249 JP).
Key updates took place for: Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), and O2Micro International (OIIM US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Kanematsu Elect/Sustech, Toshiba, Pushpay, Sembcorp, O2Micro

<ul>
<li>For the month of January, four new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~28%, which is distorted by the take under for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a>.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of January, four new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~28%, which is distorted by the take under for Esso Thailand (ESSO TB).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2023: Essential Metals, Relia Inc, Osstem Implant, Esso Thailand

<ul>
<li>Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> vs MOL and NYK. The shares are cheap on a forward basis. KLine is reducing the Real World Float, causing further potential squeeze.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sabana-industrial-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:911:1" rel="noopener">Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)</a>'s Partial Offer at 0.88x book is not overwhelming, but it is also not a control stake. It is probably priced near-right.</li>
<li>IF <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/osstem-implant-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1450:1" rel="noopener">Osstem (048260 KS)</a>'s price were to go higher, it is conceivable there could be a bump, but don't bet on it as long as the stock trades &lt;KRW 190,000. </li>
</ul>


Be long Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) vs MOL and NYK. The shares are cheap on a forward basis. KLine is reducing the Real World Float, causing further potential squeeze.

Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)'s Partial Offer at 0.88x book is not overwhelming, but it is also not a control stake. It is probably priced near-right.
IF Osstem (048260 KS)'s price were to go higher, it is conceivable there could be a bump, but don't bet on it as long as the stock trades &lt;KRW 190,000. 


Last Week in SPACE: Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Osstem, Fujitsu General, Adani Enterprises

Hong Kong

United Energy Group, Ltd. is engaged in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. The Company owns and operates a producing oilfield Liaohe Province of the P.R. of China and owns an interest in an exploration field in Madura PSC, Java, Indonesia.  UEG mainly engages in the upstream oil and natural gas business.

Productive Technologies Company Limited provides productivity solutions to semiconductor and solar cell manufacturers. The Company is engaged in advanced manufacturing of equipment applied in semiconductor and solar power businesses, as well as operates a crude oil asset. Productive Technologies serves customers in China.

China LNG Group Limited is a holding company whose group's principal activities are investment in and trading of assets and engagement in the development of new  energy businesses including investment, construction and operation of LNG filling stations, terminals and related infrastructure, sales and conversion of LNG vehicles and vessels, providing financial leasing service to customers.

Sinopec Kantons Holdings Limited trades crude oil, petroleum and petrochemical products.  The Company also operates a crude oil jetty and its ancillary facilities and petrol stations.

Yanchang Petroleum International Limited and its subsidiaries is principally engaged in investments in the oil, gas and energy related business. The Company also invests in oil and gas exploration and operation, and the trading of fuel oil.

Yanchang Petroleum International (346 HK)

Hans Energy Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates storage and transshipment of oil and liquid petrochemical products in China.  The Company also manufactures and sells corrugated paper packaging products as well as trades petroleum products.

SouthGobi Resources Ltd. mines metallurgical and thermal coal in Mongolia.  The Company sells its coal to customers in China.

Strong Petrochemical Holdings, Ltd. offers trades of crude oil, petroleum products, and petrochemical products.

JTF International Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, refined and blended fuel oil, petrol, and petrochemical products. JTF International Holdings markets its products throughout China.

Chinese People Holdings Co Limited, through its subsidiaries, supplies natural gas and provides gas pipeline connection service.  The Company also manufactures and sells glass products, and invests in properties.

Nordic American Tankers Limited is a shipping company that owns and charters Suezmax tankers for oil transportation.  The Company's ships are all active in the spot freight market.

Henan Dayou Energy Co., Ltd. engages in the exploitation and distribution of coal in China. The company, through its subsidiaries, is also involved in the production and sale of mining equipment and accessories, as well as the provision of consulting services of coal mine technologies.

Teekay Corporation provides international crude oil and petroleum product transportation services to major oil companies, major oil traders, and government agencies.  The Company provides its services through a fleet of medium size oil tankers worldwide.

Deep Yellow Limited is an advanced stage uranium exploration company progressing its core Namibian projects.

MITSUUROKO GROUP HOLDINGS CO., LTD. wholesales a variety of fuel products such as liquefied petroleum gas, coal, and briquettes products.  The Company also sells gas appliances and oil-heating equipment.  MITSUUROKO operates office leasing business as well.

SAN-AI OIL CO., LTD. primarily wholesales petroleum and LP gas nationwide.  The Company also supplies fuels for aircrafts at Haneda Airport.  San-Ai Oil has business divisions including industry energy, gas, chemical and research, and business development.

PT Baramulti Suksessarana Tbk is a coal mining company in Kalimatan.

Ardmore Shipping Corp is engaged in the ownership and operation of product and chemical tankers in worldwide trade.  The Company provides shipping services to customers through voyage charters, commercial pools and time charters.

PT Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk produces liquefied petroleum gas.

REX American Resources Corporation is invested in ethanol production entities. The Company produces ethanol, and dried and modified distillers grains, as well as leases real estate properties.

AAG Energy Holdings Limited is  an energy exploration and development company. The Company engages in coalbed methane exploration and development.

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Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Xinjiang Xintai’s Light but Final HK$1.85 Offer

The price is light but final. As there are no substantial institutional shareholders and no headcount test, the offeror is betting that minorities...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newmont/Newcrest, StanChart, Boustead Proj., Ihara, Iwasaki

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Kanematsu Elect/Sustech, Toshiba, Pushpay, Sembcorp, O2Micro

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2023: Essential Metals, Relia Inc, Osstem Implant, Esso Thailand

For the month of January, four new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn. The average premium for the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in SPACE: Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Osstem, Fujitsu General, Adani Enterprises

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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