'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/226/original/2019-06-13_16-47-07.png?1560412038" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90226"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>INTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1">Goldwin (8111 JP)</a> has the distinction of being one of only two large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' since that time.This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/196/original/2019-06-13_11-15-27.png?1560392157" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90196"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>STATISTICS - Currently, of the 3,832 listed companies for which daily RPS data is available, 94 companies are 'Overbought', and 131 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively of the total. For the 758 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 50 'Overbought' and 18 'Oversold' companies, 6.6% and 5.0%, respectively. As noted the companion Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-june-relative-price-scores-market-sectors-peer-groups-more-of-the-same" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30323">🇯🇵 Japan • June Relative Price Scores: Market, Sectors &amp; Peer Groups - More of The Same</a>, these numbers and percentages are unusual and were last seen in the Japanese market in 2000. <hr>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE TOPS •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/202/original/2019-06-13_13-06-49.png?1560398835" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90202"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>RPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 444 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 43 days. 1.4% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 96 companies and 75 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1">Descente (8114 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alfresa-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10610:1">Alfresa (2784 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">FamilyMart Uny (8028 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kikkoman-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11720:1">Kikkoman (2801 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eiken-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12675:1">Eiken Chemical (4549 JP)</a>.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/201/original/2019-06-13_13-04-38.png?1560398780" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90201"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/203/original/2019-06-13_13-08-46.png?1560398945" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90203"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/204/original/2019-06-13_13-09-37.png?1560399049" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90204"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/205/original/2019-06-13_13-12-01.png?1560399142" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90205"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/316/original/2019-06-15_19-45-47.png?1560595558" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90316"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 372 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 61 days. 1.5% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 85 companies and 89 days. A recent example of positive RPS mean reversion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/k-o-energy-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17701:1">K&amp;O Energy (1663 JP)</a>.<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/207/original/2019-06-13_13-14-03.png?1560399270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90207"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div><div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.</div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • Source: Japan AnalyticsINTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. Goldwin (8111 JP) has the distinction of being one of only two large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' since that time.This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.Source: Japan AnalyticsSTATISTICS - Currently, of the 3,832 listed companies for which daily RPS data is available, 94 companies are 'Overbought', and 131 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively of the total. For the 758 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 50 'Overbought' and 18 'Oversold' companies, 6.6% and 5.0%, respectively. As noted the companion Insight, 🇯🇵 Japan • June Relative Price Scores: Market, Sectors &amp; Peer Groups - More of The Same, these numbers and percentages are unusual and were last seen in the Japanese market in 2000. • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE TOPS •Source: Japan AnalyticsRPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 444 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 43 days. 1.4% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 96 companies and 75 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been Descente (8114 JP), Alfresa (2784 JP), FamilyMart Uny (8028 JP), Kikkoman (2801 JP), Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967 JP), and Eiken Chemical (4549 JP).  
Source: Japan Analytics
RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 372 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 61 days. 1.5% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 85 companies and 89 days. A recent example of positive RPS mean reversion is K&amp;O Energy (1663 JP).
Source: Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL section below, we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.

🇯🇵 Japan • Relative Price Scores - Overbought & Oversold Companies - June 2019

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Readers interested in Japan's payments/cashless future should refer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2415" target="_blank">Michael Causton</a>'s excellent work in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/who-will-win-the-cashless-wars-in-japan" target="_blank">Who Will Win the Cashless Wars in Japan?</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/loyalty-points-in-japan-more-loyalty-more-points-and-the-conduit-to-cashless-payments" target="_blank">Loyalty Points In Japan: More Loyalty, More Points and the Conduit to Cashless Payments</a>. As Michael notes, a points-based ecosystem could be the key to winning this war and if we were to guess at this point, we feel <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> is most likely to walk away as THE winner, though the situation is still highly uncertain.

Readers interested in Japan's payments/cashless future should refer Michael Causton's excellent work in Who Will Win the Cashless Wars in Japan? and Loyalty Points In Japan: More Loyalty, More Points and the Conduit to Cashless Payments. As Michael notes, a points-based ecosystem could be the key to winning this war and if we were to guess at this point, we feel Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) is most likely to walk away as THE winner, though the situation is still highly uncertain. 

Rakuten Pay Tops the Japanese Cashless War

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Event-Driven

We had many local news reports on the Nexon bidding over the last weekend. But most of them simply repeat what a few news outlets, namely HK, MK and SED, reported. Even these three didn't provide any detail except the names of the bidders. So, we are still in a kinda 'anything can happen' situation. But after another extensive digging and searching on various local sources, it seems certain to me that at least those names in the bid list can be considered credible. In addition, there are several interesting (and also credible) developments that were leaked. So, in this post I will put together what are being locally reported, talked, leaked and even speculated as objectively and rationally as possible.

We had many local news reports on the Nexon bidding over the last weekend. But most of them simply repeat what a few news outlets, namely HK, MK and SED, reported. Even these three didn't provide any detail except the names of the bidders. So, we are still in a kinda 'anything can happen' situation. But after another extensive digging and searching on various local sources, it seems certain to me that at least those names in the bid list can be considered credible. In addition, there are several interesting (and also credible) developments that were leaked. So, in this post I will put together what are being locally reported, talked, leaked and even speculated as objectively and rationally as possible.

We have five more days until the delayed bid that is supposed to take place on May 24. This is the upcoming Friday. No concrete news has been leaked in the meantime. Just, we had several market rumors in the past days since the delay news broke. Again, I've done extensive digging/asking. I've read all local news reports. In addition, I've read all the comments posted on Korea's main stock investment community websites, mainly Naver Finance and Paxnet. This post is what I got after this digging/asking work.I need to tell you that most of these are largely unsubstantiated at this point. These can be just market noises. So, I need to remind you that you should read and digest these at your own risk.

We have five more days until the delayed bid that is supposed to take place on May 24. This is the upcoming Friday. No concrete news has been leaked in the meantime. Just, we had several market rumors in the past days since the delay news broke. Again, I've done extensive digging/asking. I've read all local news reports. In addition, I've read all the comments posted on Korea's main stock investment community websites, mainly Naver Finance and Paxnet. This post is what I got after this digging/asking work.I need to tell you that most of these are largely unsubstantiated at this point. These can be just market noises. So, I need to remind you that you should read and digest these at your own risk.

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Fashion is already the largest single category online, but it also a sector that is developing rapidly. While the bulk of sales come from the leading malls, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/409" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/31" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19603" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1">Yahoo Japan (4689 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18379" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>, more competition is emerging from a growing number of smaller malls.There are clear signs of a 2-speed fashion e-commerce market emerging, with a small group of winners among malls and retailers (reviewed below) and the rest slowly catching up behind.At the same time, fashion retailers are increasingly looking to add their own, directly controlled online stores.For now, there is plenty of room for everyone to expand, but we will increasingly see a two-pronged system emerge, with brands still selling on malls, but also developing exclusive brand lines for their own stores.At the same time, they will adapt retail stores to become part of a full omnichannel experience, most likely expanding showrooming stores with big (positive) implications for profitability.

Fashion is already the largest single category online, but it also a sector that is developing rapidly. While the bulk of sales come from the leading malls, Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US), Rakuten (4755 JP), Yahoo Japan (4689 JP) and ZOZO Inc (3092 JP), more competition is emerging from a growing number of smaller malls.There are clear signs of a 2-speed fashion e-commerce market emerging, with a small group of winners among malls and retailers (reviewed below) and the rest slowly catching up behind.At the same time, fashion retailers are increasingly looking to add their own, directly controlled online stores.For now, there is plenty of room for everyone to expand, but we will increasingly see a two-pronged system emerge, with brands still selling on malls, but also developing exclusive brand lines for their own stores.At the same time, they will adapt retail stores to become part of a full omnichannel experience, most likely expanding showrooming stores with big (positive) implications for profitability.

Japan Fashion E-Commerce Review: More Competition Coming for ZOZO and Rakuten

Japan

A Holdings Corporation develops and operates the LINE application for smartphones. The Company offers games distribution, music distribution, advertisements, and other services. A Holdings serves clients across worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

A Holdings (LN US)

🇯🇵 Japan • Relative Price Scores - Overbought & Oversold Companies - June 2019

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • INTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by...

Campbell Gunn

Rakuten Pay Tops the Japanese Cashless War

Readers interested in Japan's payments/cashless future should refer Michael Causton's excellent work in Who Will Win the Cashless Wars in...

Supun Walpola

Nexon Sale: Main Bidding Round Summary

We had many local news reports on the Nexon bidding over the last weekend. But most of them simply repeat what a few news outlets, namely HK, MK...

Sanghyun Park

Nexon Sale: Market Talkings Update

We have five more days until the delayed bid that is supposed to take place on May 24. This is the upcoming Friday. No concrete news has been...

Sanghyun Park

Japan Fashion E-Commerce Review: More Competition Coming for ZOZO and Rakuten

Fashion is already the largest single category online, but it also a sector that is developing rapidly. While the bulk of sales come from the...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)