Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Astonishing as it may seem but 80% of all retail transactions in Japan are made with cash and 88% if you include the cash stored in so-called 'smart wallets' – essentially cash stored in plastic.Just like much of Japan's service sector, payments is a classic example of the sector's capacity to resist change, resist still more and finally, with much knocking of heads in Kasumigaseki, race to modernise in a very short period of time.That Japan will switch to cashless payments in the next three years is not in doubt – not least because of Japan's fear of Chinese payments systems gaining too much share – but with so many competing payments services available and still being launched, the big question is who will win. Given their deep data, consumer loyalty and brand names, it is likely that the current kings of loyalty points will take the biggest share alongside some of the biggest retailers meaning <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/31" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27445" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1">Softbank (9434 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1089" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1">NTT Docomo (9437 JP)</a> and the three convenience store schemes backed by banks.While the use of cash may decline, households still keep an average of ¥830,000 in cash (8% of GDP in total) under the futon and are unlikely to change that particular habit given the frequency of earthquakes and other natural disasters.

Astonishing as it may seem but 80% of all retail transactions in Japan are made with cash and 88% if you include the cash stored in so-called 'smart wallets' – essentially cash stored in plastic.Just like much of Japan's service sector, payments is a classic example of the sector's capacity to resist change, resist still more and finally, with much knocking of heads in Kasumigaseki, race to modernise in a very short period of time.That Japan will switch to cashless payments in the next three years is not in doubt – not least because of Japan's fear of Chinese payments systems gaining too much share – but with so many competing payments services available and still being launched, the big question is who will win. Given their deep data, consumer loyalty and brand names, it is likely that the current kings of loyalty points will take the biggest share alongside some of the biggest retailers meaning Rakuten (4755 JP), Softbank (9434 JP), NTT Docomo (9437 JP) and the three convenience store schemes backed by banks.While the use of cash may decline, households still keep an average of ¥830,000 in cash (8% of GDP in total) under the futon and are unlikely to change that particular habit given the frequency of earthquakes and other natural disasters.

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22772" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1">LINE Corp (3938 JP)</a> is one of the top Japanese names in our "Watchlist" of listed companies in Japan and South Korea that are adopting blockchain technologies or have exposure to cryptocurrencies. 
Since being added to the "Watchlist" in May last year (2018), LINE has launched a cryptocurrency, a cryptocurrency exchange, and a blockchain venture fund. In this note, we revisit LINE's blockchain and cryptocurrency plans.
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In our opinion, potential synergies between LINE’s cryptocurrency business and its other business ventures are quite enticing. LINE could very well lure “millions” of its existing messaging and LINE Pay users to be a part of its blockchain eco-system. 
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LINE Corp (3938 JP) is one of the top Japanese names in our "Watchlist" of listed companies in Japan and South Korea that are adopting blockchain technologies or have exposure to cryptocurrencies. 
Since being added to the "Watchlist" in May last year (2018), LINE has launched a cryptocurrency, a cryptocurrency exchange, and a blockchain venture fund. In this note, we revisit LINE's blockchain and cryptocurrency plans.

In our opinion, potential synergies between LINE’s cryptocurrency business and its other business ventures are quite enticing. LINE could very well lure “millions” of its existing messaging and LINE Pay users to be a part of its blockchain eco-system. 


This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: Revisiting LINE's Crypto Plans

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/000/original/2019-02-16_10-06-13.png?1550279195" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79000"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>WORST Q SINCE AUTUMN 2016 - Since our last Results Flash in November - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-autumn-results-revisions-flash-flatlining-weakest-quarter-in-two-years" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25804">Japan: Autumn Results &amp; Revisions Flash - Flatlining + Weakest Quarter in Two Years</a> - the operating and net profits of Japanese listed companies have peaked and declined by 2.0% and 7.5%, respectively while forecasts for the same have fallen by 1.7% and 4.1%. The stock market's initial reaction to the peaking of earnings for this cycle was a sharp 15.5% decline which climaxed on Christmas Day. A softer tone from the US Federal Reserve and a weaker Yen have helped restore a degree of confidence and the recent 12.1% rally has taken aggregate market capitalisation back to early-December.  As a result of the downturn in profits, trailing and forecast earnings multiples have reverted to August 2018 levels and can no longer be considered a bargain. For the restoration of a 'normal' market multiple (16.7x), either share prices have to rise by 18% (all else equal) or net income has to decline by a further 16%. Our money is on the latter being the more likely outcome.<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/004/original/2019-02-16_10-43-29.png?1550281425" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79004"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>ROLLING TTMs - Our series of rolling trailing-twelve-month (TTM) quarterly aggregates of all listed companies confirm the profit peak. Revenues are still increasing by 5-6% a year, and by 1-2% a quarter, however, the rate of increase is slowing and the implied growth rate for the current quarter is just 0.5%. Operating Income declined by 1.9% qoq in the quarter just declared and will be flat this quarter, although, as few companies revise full-year forecasts with Q3 earnings results, this forecast should be considered optimistic. Operating margins are forecast to be 33bps lower than in TTM-3. TTM Net Income fell by 8% qoq, although yoy growth is still a positive 3%. The 1.6% forecast growth for this quarter implies that the most recent quarter had an excessive level of write-offs. We are not so sanguine.SECTOR BREAKDOWNS - In the DETAIL section below we shall examine the trends in earnings results and forecasts for the 30 sectors that make up our Market Composite.

Source: Japan AnalyticsWORST Q SINCE AUTUMN 2016 - Since our last Results Flash in November - Japan: Autumn Results &amp; Revisions Flash - Flatlining + Weakest Quarter in Two Years - the operating and net profits of Japanese listed companies have peaked and declined by 2.0% and 7.5%, respectively while forecasts for the same have fallen by 1.7% and 4.1%. The stock market's initial reaction to the peaking of earnings for this cycle was a sharp 15.5% decline which climaxed on Christmas Day. A softer tone from the US Federal Reserve and a weaker Yen have helped restore a degree of confidence and the recent 12.1% rally has taken aggregate market capitalisation back to early-December.  As a result of the downturn in profits, trailing and forecast earnings multiples have reverted to August 2018 levels and can no longer be considered a bargain. For the restoration of a 'normal' market multiple (16.7x), either share prices have to rise by 18% (all else equal) or net income has to decline by a further 16%. Our money is on the latter being the more likely outcome.
Source: Japan Analytics
ROLLING TTMs - Our series of rolling trailing-twelve-month (TTM) quarterly aggregates of all listed companies confirm the profit peak. Revenues are still increasing by 5-6% a year, and by 1-2% a quarter, however, the rate of increase is slowing and the implied growth rate for the current quarter is just 0.5%. Operating Income declined by 1.9% qoq in the quarter just declared and will be flat this quarter, although, as few companies revise full-year forecasts with Q3 earnings results, this forecast should be considered optimistic. Operating margins are forecast to be 33bps lower than in TTM-3. TTM Net Income fell by 8% qoq, although yoy growth is still a positive 3%. The 1.6% forecast growth for this quarter implies that the most recent quarter had an excessive level of write-offs. We are not so sanguine.SECTOR BREAKDOWNS - In the DETAIL section below we shall examine the trends in earnings results and forecasts for the 30 sectors that make up our Market Composite.  

Japan: Winter Results & Revisions Flash - Cycle Earnings Peak Was December 26th

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Since inception of our IPO research in 2015, the Aequitas Research team has covered over 361 IPOs, which raised over US$100m each, across Asia Pacific (excluding Korea and China A-shares) and the US (Asia linked listings).For this insight, we used data from our IPO framework, the prospectus, company filings and market data to analyse 244 IPOs across Developed and Emerging Asia Pacific (excluding Korea and China A-shares) that took place over 2016-18. Our results are split across two insights.In our previous insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-analytics-cut-your-losses-and-let-your-profits-run-holds-true-for-ipos" target="_blank">IPO Analytics: Cut your losses and let you profits runs, holds true for IPOs</a>, we highlighted:<ul><li>Overall IPOs have provided an average 4.8% return at the end of the first week, some geographies like India and Thailand have clearly outperformed with average returns of over 10%.</li><li>IPOs in Hong Kong despite topping the list with the most number of deals provided only 2.4% average returns.</li><li>In terms of sectors, Financials and Real Estate sector have been the biggest capital guzzlers in the region. While Healthcare has been a consistent underperformer across geographies over the first few months of listing.</li><li>Incremental returns are higher from holding on to winners than from trying to bet on losers turning around, both in terms of the percentage of such cases and in terms of the average returns overall.</li></ul>This is the second and final part of our twin series of insights covering our findings. In this insight, we’ll analyse the best and worst bookrunners by country, corporate governance impact on listing performance, earnings and liquidity analysis. Our key findings include:<ul><li>Some of the biggest names in Investment Banking, one American bank in particular, has by far the lousiest record of providing investor returns from IPOs in this region</li><li>IPOs without any corporate governance issues outperformed the ones with a few issues by 9% on the first day and over the first month. Deals with related party issues and cash/dividend payout prior to listing performed the worst on average.</li><li>Sales estimates at the time of IPO appear to be a lot more reliable than the net income estimates. The latter has a bias towards being revised downwards much more so than the sales estimates. Target price changes seem to mirror share price movements and were largely out of sync with earnings revisions</li><li>In terms of volume traded as percentage of shares offered, deals that did well on an average trade 2.5x more than deals that were under water. India had the highest proportion of shares being flipped owing to the high allocation to retail and HNIs while Australia had the lowest liquidity.</li></ul>This report has been prepared by the entire Aequitas Research Team:  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:9">Ke Yan, CFA, FRM</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/673" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:673">Zhen Zhou, Toh</a> and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4">Sumeet Singh</a>.

Since inception of our IPO research in 2015, the Aequitas Research team has covered over 361 IPOs, which raised over US$100m each, across Asia Pacific (excluding Korea and China A-shares) and the US (Asia linked listings).For this insight, we used data from our IPO framework, the prospectus, company filings and market data to analyse 244 IPOs across Developed and Emerging Asia Pacific (excluding Korea and China A-shares) that took place over 2016-18. Our results are split across two insights.In our previous insight, IPO Analytics: Cut your losses and let you profits runs, holds true for IPOs, we highlighted:Overall IPOs have provided an average 4.8% return at the end of the first week, some geographies like India and Thailand have clearly outperformed with average returns of over 10%.IPOs in Hong Kong despite topping the list with the most number of deals provided only 2.4% average returns.In terms of sectors, Financials and Real Estate sector have been the biggest capital guzzlers in the region. While Healthcare has been a consistent underperformer across geographies over the first few months of listing.Incremental returns are higher from holding on to winners than from trying to bet on losers turning around, both in terms of the percentage of such cases and in terms of the average returns overall.This is the second and final part of our twin series of insights covering our findings. In this insight, we’ll analyse the best and worst bookrunners by country, corporate governance impact on listing performance, earnings and liquidity analysis. Our key findings include:Some of the biggest names in Investment Banking, one American bank in particular, has by far the lousiest record of providing investor returns from IPOs in this regionIPOs without any corporate governance issues outperformed the ones with a few issues by 9% on the first day and over the first month. Deals with related party issues and cash/dividend payout prior to listing performed the worst on average.Sales estimates at the time of IPO appear to be a lot more reliable than the net income estimates. The latter has a bias towards being revised downwards much more so than the sales estimates. Target price changes seem to mirror share price movements and were largely out of sync with earnings revisionsIn terms of volume traded as percentage of shares offered, deals that did well on an average trade 2.5x more than deals that were under water. India had the highest proportion of shares being flipped owing to the high allocation to retail and HNIs while Australia had the lowest liquidity.This report has been prepared by the entire Aequitas Research Team:  Ke Yan, CFA, FRM, Zhen Zhou, Toh and  Sumeet Singh.

IPO Analytics: Corporate Governance - Alpha Generator, Shortlist of Bookrunners to Avoid/Keep Happy

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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/837/original/2019-01-18_11-35-42.png?1547778954" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75837"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. This insight updates our list of overbought and oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies by RPS over the last two months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.
RPS STATISTICS - The Company 'outlier' thresholds are set to "+4" for overbought and "-2" for oversold.  Currently, of the 3,686 listed companies for which monthly data is available, 91 companies are 'Overbought', and 120 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively of the total. For companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 35 'Overbought' and 24 'Oversold' companies. 
RPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 445 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more. 80% have seen their RPS fall to below '4' within the following two months. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 63% - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1">Descente (8114 JP)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4908" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4908:1">Ariake Japan (2815 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15862" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13435" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13435:1">Bandai Namco (7832 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1">Don Quijote (7532 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1492" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1">Gmo Payment Gateway (3769 JP)</a>.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/838/original/2019-01-18_11-36-19.png?1547778995" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75838"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/839/original/2019-01-18_11-37-01.png?1547779035" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75839"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/840/original/2019-01-18_11-37-37.png?1547779070" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75840"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/841/original/2019-01-18_11-38-07.png?1547779100" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75841"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 296 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years. 58% have seen their RPS recover to above '-2' within three to six months. For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 72 companies and 67%. Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22772" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1">LINE Corp (3938 JP)</a> - a 'contrarians only' selection in our last <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-relative-price-score-update-overbought-and-oversold-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25849">Insight</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15457" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1">Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP)</a>.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/842/original/2019-01-18_11-39-56.png?1547779218" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75842"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/843/original/2019-01-18_11-42-06.png?1547779350" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75843"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
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In the DETAIL section below we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the largest two-month positive and negative changes in RPS.
NB - All data is as of January 17th close.
</div>



Source: Japan Analytics

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. This insight updates our list of overbought and oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies by RPS over the last two months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.
RPS STATISTICS - The Company 'outlier' thresholds are set to "+4" for overbought and "-2" for oversold.  Currently, of the 3,686 listed companies for which monthly data is available, 91 companies are 'Overbought', and 120 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively of the total. For companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 35 'Overbought' and 24 'Oversold' companies. 
RPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 445 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more. 80% have seen their RPS fall to below '4' within the following two months. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 63% - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been Descente (8114 JP),  Ariake Japan (2815 JP), Fancl (4921 JP), Bandai Namco (7832 JP), Don Quijote (7532 JP), and Gmo Payment Gateway (3769 JP).





Source: Japan Analytics

RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 296 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years. 58% have seen their RPS recover to above '-2' within three to six months. For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 72 companies and 67%. Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversion in the last two months have been LINE Corp (3938 JP) - a 'contrarians only' selection in our last Insight, and Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP).


Source: Japan Analytics

In the DETAIL section below we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the largest two-month positive and negative changes in RPS.
NB - All data is as of January 17th close.


Japan: Relative Price Scores - Overbought and Oversold Companies - Calling 'Tops' & 'Bottoms'

Japan

A Holdings Corporation develops and operates the LINE application for smartphones. The Company offers games distribution, music distribution, advertisements, and other services. A Holdings serves clients across worldwide.

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A Holdings (LN US)

Who Will Win the Cashless Wars in Japan?

Astonishing as it may seem but 80% of all retail transactions in Japan are made with cash and 88% if you include the cash stored in so-called...

Michael Causton

This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: Revisiting LINE's Crypto Plans

LINE Corp (3938 JP) is one of the top Japanese names in our "Watchlist" of listed companies in Japan and South Korea that are adopting blockchain...

Supun Walpola

Japan: Winter Results & Revisions Flash - Cycle Earnings Peak Was December 26th

WORST Q SINCE AUTUMN 2016 - Since our last Results Flash in November - Japan: Autumn Results & Revisions Flash - Flatlining + Weakest Quarter...

Campbell Gunn

IPO Analytics: Corporate Governance - Alpha Generator, Shortlist of Bookrunners to Avoid/Keep Happy

Since inception of our IPO research in 2015, the Aequitas Research team has covered over 361 IPOs, which raised over US$100m each, across Asia...

Sumeet Singh

Japan: Relative Price Scores - Overbought and Oversold Companies - Calling 'Tops' & 'Bottoms'

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the...

Campbell Gunn

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