Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The past few days have been monumental in the short history of blockchain as China's president Xi Jinping stated that the country should<a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-surges-to-over-10000-in-biggest-single-day-move-since-april-2019-10-26" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em><strong> "seize the opportunity of blockchain technology." </strong></em></a>This was essentially the first time that Xi has praised the merits of the blockchain technology, which resulted in the Bitcoin price exploding higher.</p>
<p>Although the exact timing of the launch of the China government-backed cryptocurrency is not yet known, it could be launched as soon as this winter. It remains to be seen how the Chinese government will seek to regulate Bitcoin and Ethereum as well as its own Chinese government driven cryptocurrency. However, we believe that one of the ways that the Chinese government could encourage the use of its own cryptocurrency is through various incentives schemes, including through the  <em><strong>"social credit scores."</strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Bitcoin price surged by 35% from October 24th to 26th and has since retraced slightly. As of October 28th, the Bitcoin price is $9,663 which is nearly 30% higher than October 24th just prior to Xi's embrace of the blockchain technology.  </strong></em></p>

The past few days have been monumental in the short history of blockchain as China's president Xi Jinping stated that the country should "seize the opportunity of blockchain technology." This was essentially the first time that Xi has praised the merits of the blockchain technology, which resulted in the Bitcoin price exploding higher.
Although the exact timing of the launch of the China government-backed cryptocurrency is not yet known, it could be launched as soon as this winter. It remains to be seen how the Chinese government will seek to regulate Bitcoin and Ethereum as well as its own Chinese government driven cryptocurrency. However, we believe that one of the ways that the Chinese government could encourage the use of its own cryptocurrency is through various incentives schemes, including through the  "social credit scores."
Bitcoin price surged by 35% from October 24th to 26th and has since retraced slightly. As of October 28th, the Bitcoin price is $9,663 which is nearly 30% higher than October 24th just prior to Xi's embrace of the blockchain technology.  

This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: Xi Jinping Embraces Blockchain & Bitcoin Price Surges Higher

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> •</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/178/original/2019-09-06_09-42-35.png?1567730614" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98178"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTRODUCTION </strong>- The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at<strong> +4</strong> &amp; <strong>-2</strong> and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> has just joined <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1" rel="noopener">Goldwin (8111 JP)</a> in being only the second large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' in the last twenty years. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst-performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.</strong></p></div><div></div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/046/original/2019-09-05_12-46-46.png?1567655232" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98046"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>STATISTICS</strong> - Currently, of the 3,706 listed companies for which monthly RPS data is available, 81 companies are 'Overbought', and 133 are 'Oversold' - 2.45% and 3.8%, respectively of the total. For the 737 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 44 'Overbought' and 37 'Oversold' companies, 6% and 5%, respectively.</p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'TOPS' •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/055/original/2019-09-05_13-06-30.png?1567656423" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98055"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RPS 'TOPS'</strong> - In the last two years, 388 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 42 days. 1.26% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 74 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. The chart above highlights the track record of all 95 large caps which are some point were Overbought in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the extreme outlier status of Goldwin and Lasertec.</p><p><strong>RPS NEGATIVE MEAN REVERSION</strong> - Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14996:1" rel="noopener">Suzuken (9987 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infomart-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1301:1" rel="noopener">Infomart (2492 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nichirei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7168:1" rel="noopener">Nichirei (2871 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/096/original/2019-09-05_16-25-39.png?1567668352" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98096"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/097/original/2019-09-05_16-27-09.png?1567668441" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98097"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/098/original/2019-09-05_16-28-42.png?1567668548" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98098"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/099/original/2019-09-05_16-30-29.png?1567668640" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98099"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'BOTTOMS' •</strong></p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/056/original/2019-09-05_13-12-52.png?1567656806" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98056"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
</div><p><strong>RPS 'BOTTOMS'</strong> - 259 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 83 days. 1.46% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 79 companies and 94 days. The chart above highlights the track record of the 79 large caps which are some point were Oversold in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the strong recovery in the<strong> REITs</strong> Sector and the continuing demise of <strong>Regional Banks</strong>.</p><p><strong>RPS POSITIVE MEAN REVERSION</strong> - Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/line-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1" rel="noopener">LINE (3938 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/100/original/2019-09-05_16-35-47.png?1567668972" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98100"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/102/original/2019-09-05_16-36-50.png?1567669047" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98102"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p>As we noted in our June <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-relative-price-scores-overbought-oversold-companies-june-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30393" rel="noopener">Insight: -</a></p><blockquote><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/line-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1" rel="noopener">LINE (3938 JP)</a></strong>- Line has performed poorly since being featured in last year's Sohn Conference and has had negative and worsening Operating Income for each of the previous five quarters. Although there is a possibility of a double-bottom RPS 'bounce' and <strong>the company is now the most-Oversold non-financial large-cap over one year,</strong> there are no fundamental reasons to own the shares.   </p></blockquote><p>In the <strong>DETAIL </strong>section below, we list the current<strong> Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5</strong>), <strong>Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5)</strong> and <strong>Oversold (RPS &lt;-2)</strong> stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.</p>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •Source: Japan AnalyticsINTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. Lasertec (6920 JP) has just joined Goldwin (8111 JP) in being only the second large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' in the last twenty years. This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst-performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.Source: Japan AnalyticsSTATISTICS - Currently, of the 3,706 listed companies for which monthly RPS data is available, 81 companies are 'Overbought', and 133 are 'Oversold' - 2.45% and 3.8%, respectively of the total. For the 737 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 44 'Overbought' and 37 'Oversold' companies, 6% and 5%, respectively.• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'TOPS' •Source: Japan AnalyticsRPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 388 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 42 days. 1.26% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 74 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. The chart above highlights the track record of all 95 large caps which are some point were Overbought in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the extreme outlier status of Goldwin and Lasertec.RPS NEGATIVE MEAN REVERSION - Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been Suzuken (9987 JP), Infomart (2492 JP), Nichirei (2871 JP), and Fancl (4921 JP). Source: Japan Analytics• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'BOTTOMS' •
Source: Japan Analytics
RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 259 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 83 days. 1.46% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 79 companies and 94 days. The chart above highlights the track record of the 79 large caps which are some point were Oversold in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the strong recovery in the REITs Sector and the continuing demise of Regional Banks.RPS POSITIVE MEAN REVERSION - Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversions are Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) and LINE (3938 JP).Source: Japan AnalyticsAs we noted in our June Insight: -LINE (3938 JP)- Line has performed poorly since being featured in last year's Sohn Conference and has had negative and worsening Operating Income for each of the previous five quarters. Although there is a possibility of a double-bottom RPS 'bounce' and the company is now the most-Oversold non-financial large-cap over one year, there are no fundamental reasons to own the shares.   In the DETAIL section below, we list the current Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5), Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and Oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.

🇯🇵 Japan • September Relative Price Scores - Life at the Poles Part 2: Companies

Cross Asset Strategy

TW3 NORTH ASIA 22-27 JUNESmartkarma's North Asian Insight providers produced 28 new Insights this week, mostly focused on a deluge of 'events' and the start of the, mostly first quarter, earnings announcements. The tone was overwhelmingly 'bullish' with only six 'bearish' notes, despite the weaker trends in earnings and the simmering trade and reparation disputes between the two nations.EVENT - DRIVEN

Sanghyun Park provides summaries of the rumour mills surrounding Naver Corp (035420 KS), the Naver Financial offering, Jieum and the possible diminution of LINE (3938 JP)'s role in the evolution of the group as well as the potential for  SK Telecom (017670 KS) to acquire the Asiana group companies and the resulting conversion of SKT into a holding company.

Travis Lundy and LightStream Research noted the 'short squeeze' taking place following Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP)'s removal from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) - the shares rose by 8.7% over the week.
Travis also covered three highly-unusual contested and hostile 'J-on-J" corporate actions currently unfolding. One 'white knight' has already emerged, while another two could be appearing over the horizon - a busy time for Japan's IBs:- 

Askul/Yahoo Japan -  Askul has accused YJ of lying as to its intentions surrounding the future of their JV company LOHACO and their move to have Askul's CEO dismissed - Askul has requested a dissolution of their tie-up and could be seeking a white knight

UNIZO/HIS - UNIZO has, so far, been unable to respond in writing to HIS's Tender Offer of 11th July and requires 'more information' from the Offeror. UNIZO in buying some more time is likely to be preparing a revised RNAV and probably also seeking a white knight given HIS's lack of real estate chops.

Star Asia/Sakura Sogo REIT/Mirai - This J-REIT 'event' is already a 'threesome' however the lack of any merger terms, the nonsense of the potential for abuse in the 'Deemed Approval' of non-voting shareholders and the blatant self-interest of the Sakura Soo sponsors are further glaring lacunae in Japanese corporate governance (sic)


The Asahi Group (2502 JP) acquisition of ABInBev's Australian operation CUB was deemed positive and value accretive by LightStream Research but Arun George points out that the price already factors in ambitious targets for further share gains.
Lastly, Travis Lundy recommends buying the Sanyo Chemical (4471 JP)  / Nippon Shokubai (4114 JP) 'ratio' with upsides ranging from 7% to 34%, while LightStream Research continue to applaud Denso Corp (6902 JP) further moves into autonomous driving after establishing a chip JV with Toyota Motor (7203 JP).
EQUITY BOTTOM-UP    

Douglas Kim explores the three catalysts driving Hite Jinro (000080 KS) at present - a beneficiary of the South Korean boycott of all things Japanese and then correlates Samsung Electronics (SMSD LI) with trends in US bond markets and reaches a bearish conclusion

LightStream Research thinks Money Forward (3994 JP)'s new pricing plan will result in 45% three-year annual compound revenue growth which would take the company to breakeven but would wait before investing.

Kirk Boodry looks at Softbank Group (9984 JP)'s Vision Fund II, while Michael Causton surveys the task ahead for Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s new and first female CEO and new stores opening in Shibuya and Shinsaibashi for J Front Retailing (3086 JP)

 Lastly, J. Brian Waterhouse looks at the beleaguered Fukushima Bank (8562 JP) whose largest shareholder is another listed company - Prospect Co Ltd (3528 JP) - although they are classified as a 'foreign' shareholder as the shares were originally held in the Prospect Japan Fund which has now been acquired by Prospect
 RESULTS COMMENTARY

LightStream Research maintains their bullish recommendations on both Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) and Nidec (6594 JP), despite the latter's 'underwhelming' results, while also 'staying loyal to Nissan Motor (7201 JP) as they steer well clear of a Renault SA (RNO FP)-led future. They consider Toyota Motor (7203 JP) as they clear leader in the global auto industry.

Douglas Kim updated us on Naver Corp (035420 KS)'s second quarter and reviewed the Naver Financial spin-off and concludes that 'things are looking up' for the company and the CEO, Han Seong-Sook.
Bearish notes appeared from Kirk Boodry on NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) (although he views Docomo's woes as good news for rivals KDDI Corp (9433 JP) and Softbank Group (9984 JP), while Scott Foster highlights the potential 20% downside risk in Keyence (6861 JP) whose first-quarter results sale the first downturn in sales and profits since 2010.
THEMATIC &amp; STRATEGYA somewhat prolific week for Douglas Kim saw him round off with two strategy notes, the first a bullish Insight on Korean telecom companies in light of the rollout of 5G and a reminder that the likely date for the announcement of Sout Korea's exclusion from Japan's 'whitelist' of preferred trading counterparties will be between August 2nd and August 9th. He remains pessimistic on the outlook for the Korean market.      EVENT DRIVEN: BULLISHSanyo Chem - Nippon Shokubai Merger Ratio Is a BUY ASKUL vs Yahoo Japan - Receipts Provided LINE, Naver &amp; LHJ's Jieum: Local Speculations SKT's Asiana Takeover &amp; Intermediate Holdco Conversion Timeframe Chiyoda: Squeeze Coming Through Chiyoda in Full Squeeze - For Now Another Move by Denso to Accelerate Its ADAS Game Asahi to Acquire Carlton &amp; United Breweries: Positive for Asahi Not so for AB InBev UNIZO Board Statement on HIS Tender - No Opinion Yet Naver Financial ECO: Meaning for LINE EVENT DRIVEN: BEARISHAsahi Group: The Acquisition and the Hangover Sakura Sogo/Mirai: White Knight Guess The Ratio Isn't Easy PickingsEQUITY BOTTOM-UP: BULLISHHiteJinro: 3 Catalysts - Japanese Beer Boycott, Soju Price Increase, &amp; "Tesla" The Drink Money Forward’s New Pricing Plan Could Be Its First Step in the Path to Profitability Softbank Group: Another Step Closer to Vision Fund 2 Uniqlo’s First Female CEO Gets the Job of Managing the Cull of Stores at Home J Front Retailing Aims High with New Builds in Shibuya and Shinsaibashi EQUITY BOTTOM-UP: BEARISHKOSPI Vs. Samsung Electronics at Different Stages of the Bond Yield Differentials Fukushima Bank (8562 JP) - Living on the EdgeRESULTS COMMENTARY:  BULLISHNidec: Underwhelming 1Q But OP Recovery in PlaceNaver - The Spin-Off of Naver Financial Business &amp; Major Highlights of 2Q19 Results Shin-Etsu: Solid Growth in Semiconductor Silicon Despite Declining Memory Market Nissan: Nissan Taking Its Medicine Is Making Toyota Healthier MonotaRO (3064 JP): 1H Results on Track, but Margins Declining RESULTS COMMENTARY:  BEARISHDoCoMo Q1 19 - New Tariffs Impact Profit/User Interest Low/Good for KDDI &amp; Softbank Keyence (6861 JP): Downturn Confirmed THEMATIC &amp; STRATEGY: BULLISHThe 5G Service Rollout Update &amp; Earnings Preview of Korean Telcos in 2Q19 THEMATIC &amp; STRATEGY: BEARISHExclusion of South Korea from Japan's "Whitelist" Of Countries: D-Day - August 2nd? 

🇰🇷🇯🇵 That Was The Week That Was • North Asia 22nd-27th July 2019 @Smartkarma

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Event-Driven

<p>This is a tricky one. First, this isn't exactly a captive spin-off. Well, Naver isn't hiding its intention of going for ECO later. Naver COO said during yesterday's earnings call that IPO is the final goal. <a href="http://www.inews24.com/view/1196592" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Here is the news link</a>. This must have been pre-arranged with Mirae. It is very likely that Mirae will exit at ECO. Mirae isn't that naive as to pour in ₩500bil believing there will be direct synergies. Then, what's really important is the true meaning of this spin-off. The point is this should be interpreted as strategic weight shift from LINE to Naver for financial business.</p>

This is a tricky one. First, this isn't exactly a captive spin-off. Well, Naver isn't hiding its intention of going for ECO later. Naver COO said during yesterday's earnings call that IPO is the final goal. Here is the news link. This must have been pre-arranged with Mirae. It is very likely that Mirae will exit at ECO. Mirae isn't that naive as to pour in ₩500bil believing there will be direct synergies. Then, what's really important is the true meaning of this spin-off. The point is this should be interpreted as strategic weight shift from LINE to Naver for financial business.

<p>This post looks at what is being locally talked and speculated about Naver's possible pullout from LINE Corp in Japan and how this may be connected to LHJ's recent money injection into his personal company Jieum.</p>

This post looks at what is being locally talked and speculated about Naver's possible pullout from LINE Corp in Japan and how this may be connected to LHJ's recent money injection into his personal company Jieum.

LINE, Naver & LHJ's Jieum: Local Speculations

Japan

A Holdings Corporation develops and operates the LINE application for smartphones. The Company offers games distribution, music distribution, advertisements, and other services. A Holdings serves clients across worldwide.

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A Holdings (LN US)

This Week in Blockchain & Cryptos: Xi Jinping Embraces Blockchain & Bitcoin Price Surges Higher

The past few days have been monumental in the short history of blockchain as China's president Xi Jinping stated that the country should "seize the...

Douglas Kim

🇯🇵 Japan • September Relative Price Scores - Life at the Poles Part 2: Companies

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •INTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by...

Campbell Gunn

🇰🇷🇯🇵 That Was The Week That Was • North Asia 22nd-27th July 2019 @Smartkarma

TW3 NORTH ASIA 22-27 JUNESmartkarma's North Asian Insight providers produced 28 new Insights this week, mostly focused on a deluge of 'events' and...

Campbell Gunn

Naver Financial ECO: Meaning for LINE

This is a tricky one. First, this isn't exactly a captive spin-off. Well, Naver isn't hiding its intention of going for ECO later. Naver COO said...

Sanghyun Park

LINE, Naver & LHJ's Jieum: Local Speculations

This post looks at what is being locally talked and speculated about Naver's possible pullout from LINE Corp in Japan and how this may be connected...

Sanghyun Park

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