Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week In Event SPACE: Didi Chuxing, Sydney Airport, Weibo, Container Shipping, Macau Gaming

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p></div><div>We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-manageme" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Wilson (PNI AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sealink-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6400:1" rel="noopener">Sealink Travel (SLK AU)</a> while the potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a> is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> is a close add and the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.</div><div></div><div>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>, the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - Centuria Capital (CNI AU), Wilson (PNI AU) and Sealink Travel (SLK AU) while the potential deletions are Nuix Limited (NXL AU), NRW Holdings (NWH AU) and G8 Education (GEM AU).
Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU).
De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is a close add and the corresponding deletion is Westgold Resources (WGX AU).There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.For G8 Education (GEM AU), the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Toshiba, Boral Ltd, Yageo/Chilisin, Microstrategy

<div><p>Following the $1.3bn sale of its 50% stake in USG Boral to Knauf Gips KG, international building and construction materials play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02359742-2A1290439?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on April 1 it would use the proceeds to reduce net debt, and apply the remaining proceeds to commence a buyback. Boral aimed to buy up to 10% of shares out, or ~122mn shares, at a cost of A$670mn based on the then-prevalent share price. </p></div><div><p>On the 10 May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02373310-2A1297476?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an off-market takeover at $6.50, a nil premium to last close. There are essentially no conditions to this Offer. There is no minimum acceptance condition. Seven currently holds ~23.18% and would be "satisfied" for the Offer to result in a holding of around 30%. </p></div><div>
<p>It was a cheeky Offer to ostensibly work around the creep provisions in the legislation, and Boral's board not altogether surprisingly, recommended shareholders reject the Offer in its <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02383423-2A1302901?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Target Statement</a> on the 9 June. The Independent Expert came out with a fair value range of A$8.25-A$9.13/share, and concluded the Offer was <em>not</em> fair or reasonable. </p>
<p>Seven has now <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02383423-2A1302901?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumped</a> its Offer: it will pay $7.30 cash if they get to 29.5%. Or $7.40 cash if they get to 34.5%.</p>
<p>The revised Offer was expected to be summarily rejected, which it <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02388314-2A1305588?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">was</a>. But with a closing price of A$7.34 on Friday, A$7.40 may well get up.</p>
</div><div><p>More below the fold.</p></div>

Following the $1.3bn sale of its 50% stake in USG Boral to Knauf Gips KG, international building and construction materials play Boral Ltd (BLD AU) announced on April 1 it would use the proceeds to reduce net debt, and apply the remaining proceeds to commence a buyback. Boral aimed to buy up to 10% of shares out, or ~122mn shares, at a cost of A$670mn based on the then-prevalent share price. On the 10 May, Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) announced an off-market takeover at $6.50, a nil premium to last close. There are essentially no conditions to this Offer. There is no minimum acceptance condition. Seven currently holds ~23.18% and would be "satisfied" for the Offer to result in a holding of around 30%. 
It was a cheeky Offer to ostensibly work around the creep provisions in the legislation, and Boral's board not altogether surprisingly, recommended shareholders reject the Offer in its Target Statement on the 9 June. The Independent Expert came out with a fair value range of A$8.25-A$9.13/share, and concluded the Offer was not fair or reasonable. 
Seven has now bumped its Offer: it will pay $7.30 cash if they get to 29.5%. Or $7.40 cash if they get to 34.5%.
The revised Offer was expected to be summarily rejected, which it was. But with a closing price of A$7.34 on Friday, A$7.40 may well get up.
More below the fold.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Biden's New Executive Order, MMC, Invesco Office, WH Group, EPS, Link

Australia

Seven Group Holdings Ltd. is a diversified operating and investment group. The Groups interests include media holdings that include Seven Network, a commercial television network and publishing company, a telecommunications company, and a heavy equipment dealer that operates  Caterpillar dealerships in Australia and North Eastern China.

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Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Didi Chuxing, Sydney Airport, Weibo, Container Shipping, Macau Gaming

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

We see 3 potential changes to the ASX200 at the Sep rebalance with CNI, PNI and SLK being included and NXL, NRW and GEM being deleted. Passive...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Toshiba, Boral Ltd, Yageo/Chilisin, Microstrategy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Boral Ltd (BLD AU) Rejects Seven's Bump

Arbs probably already have ~2% ahead of the bump. If arbs go all in, that extra 10% of shares out needed to hit the $7.40/share Offer can be...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Biden's New Executive Order, MMC, Invesco Office, WH Group, EPS, Link

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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