Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We have been highlighting some potentially devastating risks relating to Alibaba’s cloud business.</li>
<li>Yesterday, Chinese regulators announced that it decided to suspend the cybersecurity deal with Alibaba over failure to promptly report and address cybersecurity vulnerabilities.</li>
<li>With that, we are starting to think that our worst fears are coming true and a near-zero valuation to Alibaba’s cloud business seems highly possible.</li>
</ul>


We have been highlighting some potentially devastating risks relating to Alibaba’s cloud business.
Yesterday, Chinese regulators announced that it decided to suspend the cybersecurity deal with Alibaba over failure to promptly report and address cybersecurity vulnerabilities.
With that, we are starting to think that our worst fears are coming true and a near-zero valuation to Alibaba’s cloud business seems highly possible.


Alibaba Cloud’s Zero Dollars Valuation Look Realistic With The Suspension of The Cybersecurity Deal

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a>, the major shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/babytree-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27351:1" rel="noopener">BabyTree Group (1761 HK)</a>, a maternity and child-focussed community platform in China, is in discussion to increase its holding.</li>
<li>Should this share transfer proceed, it may trigger a mandatory general offer. Other substantial shareholders in BabyTree include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tal-education-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1124:1" rel="noopener">TAL Education (TAL US)</a>.</li>
<li>No price was mentioned. BabyTree was listed in November 2018 at $8.80/share. Shares are currently trading at $0.98/share.</li>
</ul>



Fosun International (656 HK), the major shareholder of BabyTree Group (1761 HK), a maternity and child-focussed community platform in China, is in discussion to increase its holding.
Should this share transfer proceed, it may trigger a mandatory general offer. Other substantial shareholders in BabyTree include Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and TAL Education (TAL US).
No price was mentioned. BabyTree was listed in November 2018 at $8.80/share. Shares are currently trading at $0.98/share.


BabyTree (1761 HK): Possible Offer From Fosun

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s share price is very close to its four year low due to the Tech fallout and regulatory concerns about the Chinese government; nonetheless, much bad news is now discounted</li>
<li>The share price weakness also reflects investor concerns about BABA’s potential NYSE delisting, following Didi’s NYSE delisting announcement last month under pressure from the Chinese authorities</li>
<li>Alibaba is very close to a long term PEG ratio of 1x based on consensus estimates, and trades on very modest earnings and EBITDA multiples given its continued growth potential</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s share price is very close to its four year low due to the Tech fallout and regulatory concerns about the Chinese government; nonetheless, much bad news is now discounted
The share price weakness also reflects investor concerns about BABA’s potential NYSE delisting, following Didi’s NYSE delisting announcement last month under pressure from the Chinese authorities
Alibaba is very close to a long term PEG ratio of 1x based on consensus estimates, and trades on very modest earnings and EBITDA multiples given its continued growth potential


Alibaba (BABA US): Looking to a Better ‘22

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

<ul>
<li>In its Investor Day, Alibaba Group announced its plans to focus on overseas e-commerce, amongst other initiatives. Alibaba's SEA unit, Lazada, is central to this plan.</li>
<li>The initiatives come amid investor concerns about Alibaba's long term growth prospects and competition, as well as regulatory and macroeconomic headwinds in its home market.</li>
<li>In this Insight, we examine a blue sky scenario for the incremental contribution of Alibaba's planned SEA expansion to Alibaba's overall performance and its impact on valuation. </li>
</ul>


In its Investor Day, Alibaba Group announced its plans to focus on overseas e-commerce, amongst other initiatives. Alibaba's SEA unit, Lazada, is central to this plan.
The initiatives come amid investor concerns about Alibaba's long term growth prospects and competition, as well as regulatory and macroeconomic headwinds in its home market.
In this Insight, we examine a blue sky scenario for the incremental contribution of Alibaba's planned SEA expansion to Alibaba's overall performance and its impact on valuation. 


Alibaba (BABA US) Investor Day Takeaways - The SEA Blue Sky

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>
Muddy Waters and Beike: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] must deal with an allegation of “significant” fraud by short seller from Muddy Waters at a large investment: KE Holdings (BEKE.US) [Beike];</li>
<li>
Value At Risk: Tencent owns 11% of Beike’s outstanding shares, having a market value of USD 1.8 bn; and</li>
<li>
Fundamental and Regulatory Challenges Remain:Tencent still has numerous challenges: weaker revenues in its core business, mainland China’s clampdown on gaming/internet companies, and the reining-in of Fintech businesses.</li>
</ul>



Muddy Waters and Beike: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] must deal with an allegation of “significant” fraud by short seller from Muddy Waters at a large investment: KE Holdings (BEKE.US) [Beike];

Value At Risk: Tencent owns 11% of Beike’s outstanding shares, having a market value of USD 1.8 bn; and

Fundamental and Regulatory Challenges Remain:Tencent still has numerous challenges: weaker revenues in its core business, mainland China’s clampdown on gaming/internet companies, and the reining-in of Fintech businesses.


China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

Alibaba Cloud’s Zero Dollars Valuation Look Realistic With The Suspension of The Cybersecurity Deal

Data is an extremely valuable asset in the modern world and we think the Chinese government will do everything in its power to keep data within its...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

BabyTree (1761 HK): Possible Offer From Fosun

It's not clear whether an MGO is intended to delist BabyTree, or simply an obligation under the Takeovers Code. Despite trading below net cash,...

David Blennerhassett

Alibaba (BABA US): Looking to a Better ‘22

Alibaba's big discounts on valuations to its Tech peers, and reduced short interest, indicate that regulatory concerns and the risk of NYSE...

Victor Galliano

Alibaba (BABA US) Investor Day Takeaways - The SEA Blue Sky

Alibaba announced plans to focus on SEA e-commerce amid growth concerns. We examine a blue sky scenario for the planned expansion and associated...

Jason Yap, CFA

Tencent Holdings – Adding To Its Woes

TENCENT: Tencent must now deal with a “significant” fraud allegation at its investment, Beike. Tencent owns 11% of Beike’s outstanding shares,...

Thomas J. Monaco

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