Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.</li>
<li>We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.</li>
<li>All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.</li>
</ul>


There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.
We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.
All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.


HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We provide a timeline and analysis of key measures from May 2019 to December 2022.</li>
<li>How successive tightening steps led to a critical consolidation in October 2022.</li>
<li>Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.</li>
</ul>


We provide a timeline and analysis of key measures from May 2019 to December 2022.
How successive tightening steps led to a critical consolidation in October 2022.
Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.


China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>PDD's spectacular 3Q results will prove unsustainable based on our assessments of its core markets and deep-dive benchmark analysis of growth trajectory of PDD and Alibaba, using GMV as scale.</li>
<li>We see earnings risk going into 2023 due to well-penetrated wallet share of core user base, deflating growth drivers and ramp-up of investments.</li>
<li>In the long term, inevitable multiple compression also renders the risk-return payoff of this US$100bn company mediocre, even under blue-sky growth forecasts. Prefer Alibaba over PDD.</li>
</ul>


PDD's spectacular 3Q results will prove unsustainable based on our assessments of its core markets and deep-dive benchmark analysis of growth trajectory of PDD and Alibaba, using GMV as scale.
We see earnings risk going into 2023 due to well-penetrated wallet share of core user base, deflating growth drivers and ramp-up of investments.
In the long term, inevitable multiple compression also renders the risk-return payoff of this US$100bn company mediocre, even under blue-sky growth forecasts. Prefer Alibaba over PDD.


Pinduoduo (PDD US): Spectacular 3Q, Tough Outlook

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a>’s 3Q22 mirrored its strong previous quarter with revenue of RMB 35.5bn (consensus: RMB 30.8bn) and OP of RMB 10.4bn (consensus: RMB 6.7bn).</li>
<li>CCP’s anti-monopoly drive and common prosperity measures are helping Pinduoduo to outperform the competition.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, we refrain from being outright positive on any of the Chinese e-commerce names with the economy heading into a slowdown and the lowest sector-multiple at above 12x FY+1 OP.</li>
</ul>



Pinduoduo (PDD US)’s 3Q22 mirrored its strong previous quarter with revenue of RMB 35.5bn (consensus: RMB 30.8bn) and OP of RMB 10.4bn (consensus: RMB 6.7bn).
CCP’s anti-monopoly drive and common prosperity measures are helping Pinduoduo to outperform the competition.
Nonetheless, we refrain from being outright positive on any of the Chinese e-commerce names with the economy heading into a slowdown and the lowest sector-multiple at above 12x FY+1 OP.


<ul>
<li>Weimob's share price more than doubled in a month on encouraging 3Q preliminary data and improved sentiment towards China assets</li>
<li>We explore socio-economic factors resulting in the slow ramp up of China SaaS sector , size Weimob's TAM by drawing insights from Alibaba and determine its valuation in  two-piece report </li>
<li>In the first part, we argue that inadequate cost or efficiency competitiveness of SaaS solutions over existing labor-based or manual processes have been a key drag</li>
</ul>


Weimob's share price more than doubled in a month on encouraging 3Q preliminary data and improved sentiment towards China assets
We explore socio-economic factors resulting in the slow ramp up of China SaaS sector , size Weimob's TAM by drawing insights from Alibaba and determine its valuation in  two-piece report 
In the first part, we argue that inadequate cost or efficiency competitiveness of SaaS solutions over existing labor-based or manual processes have been a key drag


Weimob (2013 HK): Strategic Patience Will Be Rewarded

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

Adding 4 stocks gets us to 80 members - a target that was to be reached by mid-2022. We list 10 potential adds where passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Spectacular 3Q, Tough Outlook

PDD's spectacular 3Q results will prove unsustainable. Near term earnings risk and long term multiple compression render the payoff of this US$100...

Eric Chen

Pinduoduo: The Odd One Out

Expected to outperform the competition, possibly through government support, we think PDD could be the safest route to invest in the battered...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Weimob (2013 HK): Strategic Patience Will Be Rewarded

We explore deep-rooted causes for the slow ramp-up of China SaaS sector, size Weimob's market opportunity by drawing insights gained from Alibaba,...

Eric Chen

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