China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Based on our channel research, we maintain our previous estimation that the results of the 618 promotions are not as bad as some investors described</li>
<li>We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%, 20% and 35%, respectively.</li>
<li>However, it remains to be seen whether consumer spending will decline after the major promotion, possibly due to excessive consumption.</li>
</ul>


Based on our channel research, we maintain our previous estimation that the results of the 618 promotions are not as bad as some investors described
We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%, 20% and 35%, respectively.
However, it remains to be seen whether consumer spending will decline after the major promotion, possibly due to excessive consumption.


Baba/JD/PDD/VIPS/Kuaishou: 618 Not as Bad as Investors Depicted, and Our Estimations of GMV Growth

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>For this year’s 618 shopping festival, per Syntun data, overall industry GMV growth recovered to 14.8% YoY (2022 618: 8.2%), driven by the recovery in growth of horizontal e-commerce platforms (from 0.7% YoY in 2022 to 5.4% in 2023), which we attribute to the efforts spent to drive for consumer engagement improvement, and by the increase in penetration of live streaming e-commerce.</li><li>GMV generated from live streaming e-commerce channel during 618 shopping festival was up 27.6% YoY in this year’s sales promotion.</li><li>Although the growth was still faster than overall industry average, it slowed from 124% YoY compared to 2022, which likely indicates a marginal easing of competition that it brought to traditional horizontal e-commerce platforms. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

For this year’s 618 shopping festival, per Syntun data, overall industry GMV growth recovered to 14.8% YoY (2022 618: 8.2%), driven by the recovery in growth of horizontal e-commerce platforms (from 0.7% YoY in 2022 to 5.4% in 2023), which we attribute to the efforts spent to drive for consumer engagement improvement, and by the increase in penetration of live streaming e-commerce.GMV generated from live streaming e-commerce channel during 618 shopping festival was up 27.6% YoY in this year’s sales promotion.Although the growth was still faster than overall industry average, it slowed from 124% YoY compared to 2022, which likely indicates a marginal easing of competition that it brought to traditional horizontal e-commerce platforms. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet – Trends observed from this year’s 618 shopping festival

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Daniel Zhang's transition to a less prominent role within Alibaba's Cloud business, after previously serving as CEO and Chairman of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, could be seen as a demotion.</li>
<li>We suspect that there could be some government influence on these proposed leadership changes.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, the situation is not encouraging, especially as the company enters a turbulent phase with multiple units poised to pursue IPOs in the near future.</li>
</ul>


Daniel Zhang's transition to a less prominent role within Alibaba's Cloud business, after previously serving as CEO and Chairman of Alibaba Group (9988 HK), could be seen as a demotion.
We suspect that there could be some government influence on these proposed leadership changes.
Nonetheless, the situation is not encouraging, especially as the company enters a turbulent phase with multiple units poised to pursue IPOs in the near future.


Alibaba's Chairman & CEO, Daniel Zang Faces a Downgrade

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sml-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36102:1" rel="noopener">SML Group (SMLGZ HK)</a> is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>SML Group (SMLG) is a vertically integrated digital identification solutions provider. It primarily engages in developing, manufacturing and selling label and tag products with radio frequency identification (RFID).</li>
<li>SMLG’s revenue growth rebounded post-COVID on the back of improved consumer sentiment. However, the firm’s profitability growth has been slowing down yet it has undertaken additional debt to payout dividends.</li>
</ul>



SML Group (SMLGZ HK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
SML Group (SMLG) is a vertically integrated digital identification solutions provider. It primarily engages in developing, manufacturing and selling label and tag products with radio frequency identification (RFID).
SMLG’s revenue growth rebounded post-COVID on the back of improved consumer sentiment. However, the firm’s profitability growth has been slowing down yet it has undertaken additional debt to payout dividends.


SML Group Pre-IPO - Guided Decline in Profitability but Spike in Dividend Payout

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Mobvoi, the innovative Chinese AI company backed by Google, Volkswagen Group, and top-tier VC firms, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The company plans to raise between $200M and $300M. </li>
<li>Mobvoi is a rapidly growing AI unicorn. Revenue from AI software solutions skyrocketed 400%+ y/y in 2022. The company will launch AI painting assistant and AI writing assistant 2.0. soon.</li>
<li>China-Based startup chose CICC and CMB international to tap capital markets to develop universal LLM, market expansion, strategic alliances, acquisitions, and working capital. </li>
</ul>


Mobvoi, the innovative Chinese AI company backed by Google, Volkswagen Group, and top-tier VC firms, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The company plans to raise between $200M and $300M. 
Mobvoi is a rapidly growing AI unicorn. Revenue from AI software solutions skyrocketed 400%+ y/y in 2022. The company will launch AI painting assistant and AI writing assistant 2.0. soon.
China-Based startup chose CICC and CMB international to tap capital markets to develop universal LLM, market expansion, strategic alliances, acquisitions, and working capital. 


Mobvoi IPO: Rapidly Growing AI Unicorn And Creator of Universal LLM “Xuliehouzi.”

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

Baba/JD/PDD/VIPS/Kuaishou: 618 Not as Bad as Investors Depicted, and Our Estimations of GMV Growth

We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Internet – Trends observed from this year’s 618 shopping festival

GMV generated from live streaming e-commerce channel during 618 shopping festival was up 27.6% YoY in this year’s sales promotion.

CMB International

Alibaba's Chairman & CEO, Daniel Zang Faces a Downgrade

The Chinese government's influence on Alibaba's leadership changes becomes apparent when looking back at Jack Ma's retirement as Chairman and the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

SML Group Pre-IPO - Guided Decline in Profitability but Spike in Dividend Payout

SML Group (SMLGZ HK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The firm’s profitability growth has been slowing down yet it...

Ethan Aw

Mobvoi IPO: Rapidly Growing AI Unicorn And Creator of Universal LLM “Xuliehouzi.”

TicWatch maker and provider of generative AI and interactive voice technologies, Mobvoi, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The AI company plans to raise...

Andrei Zakharov

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