Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Unlike many suggest, the downgrade of the US credit rating by Fitch, resulting in the US losing its Triple-A status, will have significant impact on markets.</li>
<li>The disappointing ISM Manufacturing Index comes with massive downside for Equities in all regions.</li>
<li>While the Big Tech earnings dream get to live another day, the risks of a further and more significant slowdown in company earnings remain abundant.</li>
</ul>


Unlike many suggest, the downgrade of the US credit rating by Fitch, resulting in the US losing its Triple-A status, will have significant impact on markets.
The disappointing ISM Manufacturing Index comes with massive downside for Equities in all regions.
While the Big Tech earnings dream get to live another day, the risks of a further and more significant slowdown in company earnings remain abundant.


The Weekly Market Monitor (31) – Bye, Bye, Triple-A

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Apple will report its earnings on August 3rd, 14:00 PDT. We highlight two potential trades into the Apple earnings event.</li>
<li>Quanta Computer has massively outperformed Apple due to investors latching on to its AI-server growth story. One can consider to Long Apple / Short Quanta into the Apple earnings event.</li>
<li>Hon Hai, Flexium, and Zhen Ding have all lagged Apple's shares yet generate significant revenue from Apple. One can Long a basket of the three into Apple's earnings.</li>
</ul>


Apple will report its earnings on August 3rd, 14:00 PDT. We highlight two potential trades into the Apple earnings event.
Quanta Computer has massively outperformed Apple due to investors latching on to its AI-server growth story. One can consider to Long Apple / Short Quanta into the Apple earnings event.
Hon Hai, Flexium, and Zhen Ding have all lagged Apple's shares yet generate significant revenue from Apple. One can Long a basket of the three into Apple's earnings.


Taiwan Apple Ecosystem Monitor: Two Potential Event Trades into Apple Earnings

<ul>
<li>We visited Micron's advanced A3 semiconductor fab in Taichung, Taiwan last Friday. Micron is committed to expanding leading edge capacity in Taiwan.</li>
<li>Memory names rallied sharply at the end of last week after SK Hynix affirmed that 1Q23 was the cycle bottom and AI-driven DRAM demand was accelerating its recovery.</li>
<li>We reiterate our Nanya Long trade and believe it can now run further given improving industry signals. Nanya presents pure-play exposure to a DRAM turn-around accelerated by AI demand.</li>
</ul>


We visited Micron's advanced A3 semiconductor fab in Taichung, Taiwan last Friday. Micron is committed to expanding leading edge capacity in Taiwan.
Memory names rallied sharply at the end of last week after SK Hynix affirmed that 1Q23 was the cycle bottom and AI-driven DRAM demand was accelerating its recovery.
We reiterate our Nanya Long trade and believe it can now run further given improving industry signals. Nanya presents pure-play exposure to a DRAM turn-around accelerated by AI demand.


Memory Monitor: Our Site Visit to Micron's A3 Fab in Taiwan; AI Accelerating the Cycle Recovery

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>The SoftBank share price rally is, in our view, based on optimism around the Arm IPO, the Yen’s relative weakness and recovering share prices of public companies in the portfolio</li>
<li>Nvidia’s emergence as a potential anchor investor in the Arm IPO has boosted SoftBank shares, yet there is still a big disparity between groups in terms of Arm’s potential valuation</li>
<li>Aside from a recovery in public tech companies’ shares, Yen weakness has supported SoftBank’s asset values; monetary policy moves now indicate the prospect of a stronger Yen versus the USD</li>
</ul>


The SoftBank share price rally is, in our view, based on optimism around the Arm IPO, the Yen’s relative weakness and recovering share prices of public companies in the portfolio
Nvidia’s emergence as a potential anchor investor in the Arm IPO has boosted SoftBank shares, yet there is still a big disparity between groups in terms of Arm’s potential valuation
Aside from a recovery in public tech companies’ shares, Yen weakness has supported SoftBank’s asset values; monetary policy moves now indicate the prospect of a stronger Yen versus the USD


SoftBank Group (9984 JP) – Reasons to Be Careful

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Global Fund exposure in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) has moved to record levels after a doubling of the share price this year.</li>
<li>New positions from UniNachhaltig Global, JP Morgan Global Focus  and BNY Mellon Global Equity (3.36%) were among a total of 14 funds who opened exposure to NVIDIA Corp in 2023.</li>
<li>Growth and Aggressive Growth funds are at maximum levels of ownership, whilst Value managers are showing some hesitancy here.</li>
</ul>


Global Fund exposure in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) has moved to record levels after a doubling of the share price this year.
New positions from UniNachhaltig Global, JP Morgan Global Focus  and BNY Mellon Global Equity (3.36%) were among a total of 14 funds who opened exposure to NVIDIA Corp in 2023.
Growth and Aggressive Growth funds are at maximum levels of ownership, whilst Value managers are showing some hesitancy here.


United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

The Weekly Market Monitor (31) – Bye, Bye, Triple-A

The US has lost the Triple A-rating, which, unlike many suggest, will have major implications. If not in the short run, then definitely in the long...

Jeroen Blokland

Taiwan Apple Ecosystem Monitor: Two Potential Event Trades into Apple Earnings

Apple will report its earnings on August 3rd. We highlight one Long / Short and one Long-Only Basket trade into the event.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Our Site Visit to Micron's A3 Fab in Taiwan; AI Accelerating the Cycle Recovery

Memory names rallied sharply at the end of last week after SK Hynix affirmed that 1Q23 was the cycle bottom and AI-driven DRAM demand was...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SoftBank Group (9984 JP) – Reasons to Be Careful

The SoftBank NAV faces hurdles; a gulf between groups in terms of Arm’s valuation in its coming IPO, prospects for a stronger Yen and already...

Victor Galliano

NVIDIA: Global Funds Hit New Highs

Global Fund exposure in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) has moved to record levels after a doubling of the share price this year..

Steven Holden

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