Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Nvidia posted earnings yesterday, and guidance was light of buy-side bogeys. I’m not going to step into the mind game of bogeys here, but there are some finer points to focus on.</li><li>NVIDIA reports Q3 EPS $0.81 ex-items vs FactSet $0.75. Reports Q3: Revenue $35.08B vs FactSet $33.17B (2 billion beat like clockwork)</li><li>Q4 Guidance: Revenue $37.5B +/- 2% vs FactSet $37.09B (a bit light). GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 73.0% and 73.5%, respectively, +/- 50 bps. (also light)</li></ul>

Nvidia posted earnings yesterday, and guidance was light of buy-side bogeys. I’m not going to step into the mind game of bogeys here, but there are some finer points to focus on.NVIDIA reports Q3 EPS $0.81 ex-items vs FactSet $0.75. Reports Q3: Revenue $35.08B vs FactSet $33.17B (2 billion beat like clockwork)Q4 Guidance: Revenue $37.5B +/- 2% vs FactSet $37.09B (a bit light). GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 73.0% and 73.5%, respectively, +/- 50 bps. (also light)

NVIDIA: Waiting on Blackwell, and the Networking Question

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Nvidia (NVDA US, NR) announced 3QFY25 results on 21 Nov (HKT).</li><li>Quarterly revenue was US$35.1bn, up 93.6% YoY and 16.8% QoQ (vs. 17.8%/15.3% QoQ in 1Q/2Q).</li><li>Revenue beat guidance (US$32.5bn) by 7.9% and Bloomberg consensus (US$33.3bn) by 5.5%. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Nvidia (NVDA US, NR) announced 3QFY25 results on 21 Nov (HKT).Quarterly revenue was US$35.1bn, up 93.6% YoY and 16.8% QoQ (vs. 17.8%/15.3% QoQ in 1Q/2Q).Revenue beat guidance (US$32.5bn) by 7.9% and Bloomberg consensus (US$33.3bn) by 5.5%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors - Nvidia’s 3Q Earnings Takeaway: Strong Demand for Blackwell Well into Next Year

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.</li>
<li>Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.</li>
<li>The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.
Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.
The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.


Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>NVIDIA, the undisputed leader in AI-driven GPUs, is currently navigating turbulent waters with its latest Blackwell architecture chips.</li><li>While the company has been riding high on record-breaking revenues and a surging demand for AI compute power, reports of overheating issues in Blackwell chips have cast a shadow over its otherwise stellar growth trajectory.</li><li>According to recent disclosures, these state-of-the-art GPUs face severe thermal management challenges when configured in server racks holding up to 72 units.</li></ul>

NVIDIA, the undisputed leader in AI-driven GPUs, is currently navigating turbulent waters with its latest Blackwell architecture chips.While the company has been riding high on record-breaking revenues and a surging demand for AI compute power, reports of overheating issues in Blackwell chips have cast a shadow over its otherwise stellar growth trajectory.According to recent disclosures, these state-of-the-art GPUs face severe thermal management challenges when configured in server racks holding up to 72 units.

NVIDIA's AI Revolution Stalls? What Blackwell's Overheating Issues Reveal!

<ul><li>In a time of rapidly shifting global dynamics, NVIDIA finds itself in a delicate position amid escalating tensions between the United States, Taiwan, and China.</li><li>With Donald Trump’s return to office as the 47th President, his administration's potential tariffs on Taiwanese-made chips may spell significant implications for NVIDIA, one of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) key clients.</li><li>Trump’s administration has already criticized the U.S. CHIPS Act, calling out Taiwan for allegedly “stealing” America’s chip industry.</li></ul>

In a time of rapidly shifting global dynamics, NVIDIA finds itself in a delicate position amid escalating tensions between the United States, Taiwan, and China.With Donald Trump’s return to office as the 47th President, his administration's potential tariffs on Taiwanese-made chips may spell significant implications for NVIDIA, one of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) key clients.Trump’s administration has already criticized the U.S. CHIPS Act, calling out Taiwan for allegedly “stealing” America’s chip industry.

Is NVIDIA at Risk? Examining China Tensions and Their Impact on the Chip Giant

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

NVIDIA: Waiting on Blackwell, and the Networking Question

Nvidia posted earnings yesterday, and guidance was light of buy-side bogeys. I’m not going to step into the mind game of bogeys here, but there...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductors - Nvidia’s 3Q Earnings Takeaway: Strong Demand for Blackwell Well into Next Year

Nvidia (NVDA US, NR) announced 3QFY25 results on 21 Nov (HKT). Quarterly revenue was US$35.1bn, up 93.6% YoY and 16.8% QoQ (vs. 17.8%/15.3% QoQ in...

CMB International

Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

NVIDIA's AI Revolution Stalls? What Blackwell's Overheating Issues Reveal!

NVIDIA, the undisputed leader in AI-driven GPUs, is currently navigating turbulent waters with its latest Blackwell architecture chips. While the...

Baptista Research

Is NVIDIA at Risk? Examining China Tensions and Their Impact on the Chip Giant

In a time of rapidly shifting global dynamics, NVIDIA finds itself in a delicate position amid escalating tensions between the United States,...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NVIDIA: Waiting on Blackwell, and the Networking Question

Nvidia posted earnings yesterday, and guidance was light of buy-side bogeys. I’m not going to step into the mind game of bogeys here, but there...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductors - Nvidia’s 3Q Earnings Takeaway: Strong Demand for Blackwell Well into Next Year

Nvidia (NVDA US, NR) announced 3QFY25 results on 21 Nov (HKT). Quarterly revenue was US$35.1bn, up 93.6% YoY and 16.8% QoQ (vs. 17.8%/15.3% QoQ in...

CMB International

Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

​Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

NVIDIA's AI Revolution Stalls? What Blackwell's Overheating Issues Reveal!

NVIDIA, the undisputed leader in AI-driven GPUs, is currently navigating turbulent waters with its latest Blackwell architecture chips. While the...

Baptista Research

Is NVIDIA at Risk? Examining China Tensions and Their Impact on the Chip Giant

In a time of rapidly shifting global dynamics, NVIDIA finds itself in a delicate position amid escalating tensions between the United States,...

Baptista Research

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...