Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The ARM sale to Nvidia has been cancelled but Softbank is charging full speed ahead on an IPO</li>
<li>That is unlikely to surface the value of a straight sale whilst the monetization rate at 15-20% would also be much lower</li>
<li>We remain cautious even with a 50% discount as NAV depends on volatile tech valuations but today's report provides some reassurance on ARM at least</li>
</ul>


The ARM sale to Nvidia has been cancelled but Softbank is charging full speed ahead on an IPO
That is unlikely to surface the value of a straight sale whilst the monetization rate at 15-20% would also be much lower
We remain cautious even with a 50% discount as NAV depends on volatile tech valuations but today's report provides some reassurance on ARM at least


Softbank Group - Q3 21 Results Reaction: ARM IPO Pivot Is the Big Reveal

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

LiDAR Technology Leader with Proven Technology, Tier 1 Partners, and a Capital-Light Business Model

<ul>
<li>Nvidia is reportedly close to throwing in the towel on the acquisition of ARM (although markets have assumed that outcome for awhile)</li>
<li>Softbank can still monetize the asset through an IPO but most likely at a lower valuation and with much fewer proceeds</li>
<li>We believe ARM was the primary source of buyback funds and with VF down $13bn QTD prospects for meaningful buybacks have been pushed out</li>
</ul>


Nvidia is reportedly close to throwing in the towel on the acquisition of ARM (although markets have assumed that outcome for awhile)
Softbank can still monetize the asset through an IPO but most likely at a lower valuation and with much fewer proceeds
We believe ARM was the primary source of buyback funds and with VF down $13bn QTD prospects for meaningful buybacks have been pushed out


Softbank Group - ARM News, Vision Fund Weakness Highlight That Share Buyback Will Be Back Loaded

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-25/nvidia-is-said-to-quietly-prepare-to-abandon-takeover-of-arm" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bloomberg reported</a> overnight that Nvidia was moving to accept reality and give up on the Arm merger. </li>
<li>This was largely expected but does deprive Softbank of a source of cash to conduct its buyback. </li>
<li>It also highlights the overall negative environment for Softbank’s traditional business “strategy”.</li>
</ul>



 Bloomberg reported overnight that Nvidia was moving to accept reality and give up on the Arm merger. 
This was largely expected but does deprive Softbank of a source of cash to conduct its buyback. 
It also highlights the overall negative environment for Softbank’s traditional business “strategy”.


Softbank – NVIDIA’s Abandonment of Arm and the Search for Credibility

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

<ul>
<li>From a market point of view, Intel's risk-reward profile appears more compelling than many of its high-flying peers.</li>
<li>From a business perspective, the company will likely continue to suffer in the short-term, however, strategic positioning is still strong.</li>
<li>What has historically been Intel's weak spot could prove to be its key competitive advantage over the coming years.</li>
</ul>


From a market point of view, Intel's risk-reward profile appears more compelling than many of its high-flying peers.
From a business perspective, the company will likely continue to suffer in the short-term, however, strategic positioning is still strong.
What has historically been Intel's weak spot could prove to be its key competitive advantage over the coming years.


Intel: Well-Positioned To Compete But Hardly A Short-Term Play

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Softbank Group - Q3 21 Results Reaction: ARM IPO Pivot Is the Big Reveal

SBG will pivot to an ARM IPO after confirmation the NVDA sale was off. It continues to invest aggressively at VF2 with little to spare for...

Kirk Boodry

LiDAR Technology Leader with Proven Technology, Tier 1 Partners, and a Capital-Light Business Model

KEY POINTS AEye is the global leader in adaptive, high-performance LiDAR solutions. Its software-driven LiDAR platform (4Sight Foundation), and...

Water Tower Research

Softbank – NVIDIA’s Abandonment of Arm and the Search for Credibility

Bloomberg reported overnight that Nvidia was moving to accept reality and give up on the Arm merger. This highlights the overall negative...

Mio Kato

Intel: Well-Positioned To Compete But Hardly A Short-Term Play

From a market point of view, Intel's risk-reward profile appears more compelling than many of its high-flying peers. From a business perspective,...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Softbank Group - Q3 21 Results Reaction: ARM IPO Pivot Is the Big Reveal

SBG will pivot to an ARM IPO after confirmation the NVDA sale was off. It continues to invest aggressively at VF2 with little to spare for...

Kirk Boodry

LiDAR Technology Leader with Proven Technology, Tier 1 Partners, and a Capital-Light Business Model

KEY POINTS AEye is the global leader in adaptive, high-performance LiDAR solutions. Its software-driven LiDAR platform (4Sight Foundation), and...

Water Tower Research

Softbank Group - ARM News, Vision Fund Weakness Highlight That Share Buyback Will Be Back Loaded

Shares never captured Nvidia upside so the collapse of the ARM sale is not surprising but it also removes the primary source of funds for the share...

Kirk Boodry

Softbank – NVIDIA’s Abandonment of Arm and the Search for Credibility

Bloomberg reported overnight that Nvidia was moving to accept reality and give up on the Arm merger. This highlights the overall negative...

Mio Kato

Intel: Well-Positioned To Compete But Hardly A Short-Term Play

From a market point of view, Intel's risk-reward profile appears more compelling than many of its high-flying peers. From a business perspective,...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA