Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Mobileye Global (MBLY US) is getting ready to complete its IPO next week. The IPO price range is between $18 and $20 per share.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Mobileye is implied market cap of $15.2 billion or $19 per share, which is within the IPO price range. </li>
<li>Given the low upside in our target price relative to the IPO price range, we have a Negative view of this IPO.</li>
</ul>


Mobileye Global (MBLY US) is getting ready to complete its IPO next week. The IPO price range is between $18 and $20 per share.
Our base case valuation of Mobileye is implied market cap of $15.2 billion or $19 per share, which is within the IPO price range. 
Given the low upside in our target price relative to the IPO price range, we have a Negative view of this IPO.


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMD and Samsung preliminary numbers disappoint, PC demand weakness cited.</li>
<li>U.S. issues broad new rules restricting technology sales to China, essentially removing China as a long-term demand driver for advanced products.</li>
<li>TSMC results coming out this week, expecting all-time high revenue.</li>
</ul>


AMD and Samsung preliminary numbers disappoint, PC demand weakness cited.
U.S. issues broad new rules restricting technology sales to China, essentially removing China as a long-term demand driver for advanced products.
TSMC results coming out this week, expecting all-time high revenue.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Our Summary of Sweeping New China Restrictions, TSMC Results This Week

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>Valuation losses in the Vision Fund public portfolio are now approaching $5bn as the end of the quarter looms versus break-even as recently as 13 September</li>
<li>That may have influenced the level of VF staff reductions which press reports ut at 30% versus expectations of 20% last month</li>
<li>The discount remains elevated on tech weakness and that is unlikely to change</li>
</ul>


Valuation losses in the Vision Fund public portfolio are now approaching $5bn as the end of the quarter looms versus break-even as recently as 13 September
That may have influenced the level of VF staff reductions which press reports ut at 30% versus expectations of 20% last month
The discount remains elevated on tech weakness and that is unlikely to change


Softbank Group - Vision Fund Losses Accelerate into Quarter End

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel's CEO has clearly put NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) in the cross-hairs with his conference comments and the unveiling of new graphics chips.</li>
<li>Separate reports are that Apple is cutting back iPhone 14 production volumes, negatively impacting TSMC and the Apple supply chain.</li>
<li>Intel is now slightly outperforming TSMC &amp; UMC, however has a lot of room to catch up in our view given its large underperformance over the last six months.</li>
</ul>


Intel's CEO has clearly put NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) in the cross-hairs with his conference comments and the unveiling of new graphics chips.
Separate reports are that Apple is cutting back iPhone 14 production volumes, negatively impacting TSMC and the Apple supply chain.
Intel is now slightly outperforming TSMC &amp; UMC, however has a lot of room to catch up in our view given its large underperformance over the last six months.


Intel Vs. TSMC/​​UMC Long/​​Short Monitor: Post Conference Take Aways, Intel Performance Reverts

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.</li>
<li>Today we are flagging Outset Med., NVIDIA, Intuitive Surgical, Plug Power</li>
</ul>


This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.
The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.
Today we are flagging Outset Med., NVIDIA, Intuitive Surgical, Plug Power


Breaking Growth Short Candidates:  Outset Med., NVIDIA, Intuitive Surgical, Plug Power

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Mobileye Global IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Mobileye is implied market cap of $15.2 billion or $19 per share, which is within the IPO price range. We have a...

Douglas Kim

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Our Summary of Sweeping New China Restrictions, TSMC Results This Week

U.S. issues broad new rules restricting technology sales to China, essentially removing China as a long-term demand driver for advanced products.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Softbank Group - Vision Fund Losses Accelerate into Quarter End

Softbank shares are down 8% since it announced the early settlement of Alibaba derivative contracts but a strong dollar has helped as declines in...

Kirk Boodry

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Post Conference Take Aways, Intel Performance Reverts

Separate reports are that Apple is cutting back iPhone 14 production volumes, negatively impacting TSMC and the Apple supply chain.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Breaking Growth Short Candidates: Outset Med., NVIDIA, Intuitive Surgical, Plug Power

Breaking Growth stocks combine declining fundamentals with a multiple compression. This week we flag: Outset Med., NVIDIA, Intuitive Surgical,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

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Mobileye Global IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Mobileye is implied market cap of $15.2 billion or $19 per share, which is within the IPO price range. We have a...

Douglas Kim

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Our Summary of Sweeping New China Restrictions, TSMC Results This Week

U.S. issues broad new rules restricting technology sales to China, essentially removing China as a long-term demand driver for advanced products.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Softbank Group - Vision Fund Losses Accelerate into Quarter End

Softbank shares are down 8% since it announced the early settlement of Alibaba derivative contracts but a strong dollar has helped as declines in...

Kirk Boodry

Intel Vs. TSMC/​​UMC Long/​​Short Monitor: Post Conference Take Aways, Intel Performance Reverts

Separate reports are that Apple is cutting back iPhone 14 production volumes, negatively impacting TSMC and the Apple supply chain.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Breaking Growth Short Candidates: Outset Med., NVIDIA, Intuitive Surgical, Plug Power

Breaking Growth stocks combine declining fundamentals with a multiple compression. This week we flag: Outset Med., NVIDIA, Intuitive Surgical,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Post Conference Take Aways, Intel Performance Reverts