Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.</li>
<li>TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.</li>
<li>Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.
TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.
Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.


TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
The new clarification of the October export restrictions came out today, and as far as I can tell, it is a slight liberalization of the previous export restrictions for semicap. 
</li>
<li>
For AI, it looks to be the closing of the A800 and H800 loopholes.
</li>
<li>
I read both documents. They are pretty dense, and instead of going through a super detailed analysis, I want to give you a spark notes version of the export restrictions and the implications.
</li>
</ul>



The new clarification of the October export restrictions came out today, and as far as I can tell, it is a slight liberalization of the previous export restrictions for semicap. 


For AI, it looks to be the closing of the A800 and H800 loopholes.


I read both documents. They are pretty dense, and instead of going through a super detailed analysis, I want to give you a spark notes version of the export restrictions and the implications.



Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang joined Hon Hai at its annual Tech Day yesterday, announcing  an expansion of their partnership into the development of AI factories that will produce new software.</li>
<li>Hon Hai unveiled its new 'Model N' EV, a van designed for logistics use cases. Its Model C SUV will have first customer deliveries in Taiwan in January 2024E.</li>
<li>The latest Nvidia partnership expansion announcement and EV developments will transform Hon Hai's unique value proposition to automakers. We continue to expect nearly 50% upside for the shares.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang joined Hon Hai at its annual Tech Day yesterday, announcing  an expansion of their partnership into the development of AI factories that will produce new software.
Hon Hai unveiled its new 'Model N' EV, a van designed for logistics use cases. Its Model C SUV will have first customer deliveries in Taiwan in January 2024E.
The latest Nvidia partnership expansion announcement and EV developments will transform Hon Hai's unique value proposition to automakers. We continue to expect nearly 50% upside for the shares.


Hon Hai Tech Day Takeaways: Nvidia Announces AI Factories Partnership; Competitive Advantage for EVs

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Multiple media outlets on Tuesday have reported the US is tightening export controls for AI chips, which is expected to further limit the ability of Nvidia and other manufacturers to sell high-performance semiconductors to China.</li><li>Nvidia’s response: Nvidia’s response: “does not expect a near-term meaningful impact on financial results following US expansion of export controls to China…”, a company spokesperson says in an email to Bloomberg.</li><li>However, the Company executives have said blanket bans on exports to China would affect the long-term growth of the US chip industry.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Multiple media outlets on Tuesday have reported the US is tightening export controls for AI chips, which is expected to further limit the ability of Nvidia and other manufacturers to sell high-performance semiconductors to China.Nvidia’s response: Nvidia’s response: “does not expect a near-term meaningful impact on financial results following US expansion of export controls to China…”, a company spokesperson says in an email to Bloomberg.However, the Company executives have said blanket bans on exports to China would affect the long-term growth of the US chip industry.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology (Hardware/Semi): Quick note on newly announced restrictions on advanced AI chips

<ul>
<li>Our Taiwan AI stock short basket of Quanta, Wistron, Gold Circuit, and Asia Vital has underperformed Nvidia by 12.5% since our previous piece.</li>
<li>Most of Taiwan's AI stock plays have underperformed Nvidia over the same period, but by less than our basket names. Analyst recommendations remain overwhelmingly Buy for our Short basket names.</li>
<li>Conclusion: Maintain Quanta, Wistron, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital as a Short Basket vs. Long Nvidia. Nvidia revenue will grow at a higher percentage rate than most Taiwan AI concept stocks.</li>
</ul>


Our Taiwan AI stock short basket of Quanta, Wistron, Gold Circuit, and Asia Vital has underperformed Nvidia by 12.5% since our previous piece.
Most of Taiwan's AI stock plays have underperformed Nvidia over the same period, but by less than our basket names. Analyst recommendations remain overwhelmingly Buy for our Short basket names.
Conclusion: Maintain Quanta, Wistron, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital as a Short Basket vs. Long Nvidia. Nvidia revenue will grow at a higher percentage rate than most Taiwan AI concept stocks.


Taiwan AI Stock Shorts Vs. Nvidia: Nvidia Outperforms, Maintain Taiwan Short Basket

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

TSMC maintained its expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. It also reiterated its view that it can maintain its gross margin near all...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

October Restrictions Implications

The new clarification of the October export restrictions came out today, and as far as I can tell, it is a slight liberalization of the previous...

Fabricated Knowledge

Hon Hai Tech Day Takeaways: Nvidia Announces AI Factories Partnership; Competitive Advantage for EVs

The latest Nvidia partnership expansion will transform Hon Hai's unique value proposition to automakers. We continue to expect nearly 50% upside...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Technology (Hardware/Semi): Quick note on newly announced restrictions on advanced AI chips

Multiple media outlets on Tuesday have reported the US is tightening export controls for AI chips, which is expected to further limit the ability...

CMB International

Taiwan AI Stock Shorts Vs. Nvidia: Nvidia Outperforms, Maintain Taiwan Short Basket

The Taiwan AI Short Basket underperformed Nvidia, the Taiwan TWSE Index, and our universe of Taiwan AI plays. We expect Nvidia revenue to grow at a...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)