Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reduced capex guidance to the bottom of its guidance range but maintained revenue expectations and still expects substantial growth in 2024E.</li>
<li>Dell, HP, and Qualcomm comments signal an AI-Driven PC refresh cycle ahead and 2024E PC Growth. Windows 11 upgrades could be accelerated as new PC AI applications roll out.</li>
<li>Hon Hai reported that it gained market share globally in 2022, and that it has 40% global market share for servers. Hon Hai's AI servers expected to experience triple-digit growth.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reduced capex guidance to the bottom of its guidance range but maintained revenue expectations and still expects substantial growth in 2024E.
Dell, HP, and Qualcomm comments signal an AI-Driven PC refresh cycle ahead and 2024E PC Growth. Windows 11 upgrades could be accelerated as new PC AI applications roll out.
Hon Hai reported that it gained market share globally in 2022, and that it has 40% global market share for servers. Hon Hai's AI servers expected to experience triple-digit growth.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Cuts Capex; Hon Hai AI Servers in Demand; ASE Winning TSMC Orders

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46.9 and reveals clear downside for equities based on the historical relationship.</li>
<li>The US labor market remains way too hot for the Fed and significantly increases the odds of another rate hike even as a massive drop in inflation materializes. </li>
<li>The P/E ratio of Big Tech stocks equals 56, while earnings growth has turned negative in recent quarters. Not the best starting point with the MOVE/VIX ratio &gt;8.</li>
</ul>


The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46.9 and reveals clear downside for equities based on the historical relationship.
The US labor market remains way too hot for the Fed and significantly increases the odds of another rate hike even as a massive drop in inflation materializes. 
The P/E ratio of Big Tech stocks equals 56, while earnings growth has turned negative in recent quarters. Not the best starting point with the MOVE/VIX ratio &gt;8.


ISM Down, Rates Up, Valuation Ballooning; What Could Go Wrong?

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.</li>
<li>
 Macro data points: PMI data points for China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam; Indian GDP growth.</li>
<li>
 Companies mentioned:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>
</li>
</ul>


The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.

 Macro data points: PMI data points for China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam; Indian GDP growth.

 Companies mentioned:Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)



GEM Weekly (2 Jun 2023): PMI Data Across Asia, South Korea Inflation, India GDP; MediaTek, JD.com

<ul>
<li>History shows that stock market bubbles - a 100% price boom within a year, followed by a 50%+ crash in the following year - are extremely rare.</li>
<li>We apply this metric to current market dynamics and conclude there are no booms around these days.</li>
<li>When expanding the definition of a bubble, two of them appear but only in a small subset of the total stock market: Non-profitable Tech stocks and NVIDIA.</li>
</ul>


History shows that stock market bubbles - a 100% price boom within a year, followed by a 50%+ crash in the following year - are extremely rare.
We apply this metric to current market dynamics and conclude there are no booms around these days.
When expanding the definition of a bubble, two of them appear but only in a small subset of the total stock market: Non-profitable Tech stocks and NVIDIA.


Bubble or Breadth: Evaluating the State of the Stock Market

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>Intel's CFO boosted the current quarter outlook to the higher end of the guided range of $12 billion +/- $500 million</li>
<li>Intel's share price was up 4.8% in overnight trading, presumably a result of the forecast boost</li>
<li>While Intel's CFO thinks Intel is set to ride an AI wave, we think it will be more like riding a ripple across a rising tide that lifts all boats. </li>
</ul>


Intel's CFO boosted the current quarter outlook to the higher end of the guided range of $12 billion +/- $500 million
Intel's share price was up 4.8% in overnight trading, presumably a result of the forecast boost
While Intel's CFO thinks Intel is set to ride an AI wave, we think it will be more like riding a ripple across a rising tide that lifts all boats. 


United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Cuts Capex; Hon Hai AI Servers in Demand; ASE Winning TSMC Orders

Hon Hai reported that it gained market share globally in 2022, and that it has 40% global market share for servers. Hon Hai's AI servers expected...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ISM Down, Rates Up, Valuation Ballooning; What Could Go Wrong?

The AI Boom remains real, but so is deteriorating Macro, extreme SKEW, the MOVE-VIX divergence, and lofty Big Tech valuation.

Jeroen Blokland

GEM Weekly (2 Jun 2023): PMI Data Across Asia, South Korea Inflation, India GDP; MediaTek, JD.com

he Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of...

Wium Malan, CFA

Bubble or Breadth: Evaluating the State of the Stock Market

No current stock market boom is evident, but concerns arise regarding market breadth and concentration of market value in a few major stocks.

Jeroen Blokland

Will Intel Ride The AI Wave?

Current quarter outlook boosted to the high end of the guided range.Share price was up 4.8% in overnight trading.While NVIDIA is riding an AI wave,...

William Keating

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