Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Once valued at ~$2.8 billion, the former UK Unicorn is but a shadow of its original self.</li>
<li>Their IPU design was far too ambitious from the outset leading them to over promise and under deliver.</li>
<li>Unless you are a Google or an Amazon, designing and building your own AI processor from scratch to compete with NVIDIA is a fool's errand.</li>
</ul>


Once valued at ~$2.8 billion, the former UK Unicorn is but a shadow of its original self.
Their IPU design was far too ambitious from the outset leading them to over promise and under deliver.
Unless you are a Google or an Amazon, designing and building your own AI processor from scratch to compete with NVIDIA is a fool's errand.


Graphcore. A Cautionary Tale For Would-Be NVIDIA Challengers

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

<ul><li>“Big Infrastructure”- Under the Surface Megatrend Continues While AI/semiconductors and related Big Tech names such as Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet, etc. capture significant attention within the business media today, secular growth pockets in the infrastructure space don’t seem to be gathering as much attention as it probably should deserve in the infrastructure space.</li><li>As shown in recent legislation, one of the few areas of agreement within a divided US Congress is infrastructure investment and spending.</li><li>Passed in November 2021, the the $1.2 trillion bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act unleashed $550 billion in new spending for things like roads and bridges ($110B), power grid modernization ($65B), railroads ($66B), water infrastructure ($55B), airports ($25B), etc.</li></ul>

“Big Infrastructure”- Under the Surface Megatrend Continues While AI/semiconductors and related Big Tech names such as Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet, etc. capture significant attention within the business media today, secular growth pockets in the infrastructure space don’t seem to be gathering as much attention as it probably should deserve in the infrastructure space.As shown in recent legislation, one of the few areas of agreement within a divided US Congress is infrastructure investment and spending.Passed in November 2021, the the $1.2 trillion bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act unleashed $550 billion in new spending for things like roads and bridges ($110B), power grid modernization ($65B), railroads ($66B), water infrastructure ($55B), airports ($25B), etc.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC is back to an 11.8% ADR premium after dropping to 8%... potentially another good Long/Short point.</li>
<li>UMC has flipped to a -0.6% ADR discount, from a 5.6% Premium. If the discount ticks slightly more negative then a good setup level will open up.</li>
<li>ASE, ChipMOS, and CHT spreads have also experienced significant swings since our last dual-listings piece.</li>
</ul>


TSMC is back to an 11.8% ADR premium after dropping to 8%... potentially another good Long/Short point.
UMC has flipped to a -0.6% ADR discount, from a 5.6% Premium. If the discount ticks slightly more negative then a good setup level will open up.
ASE, ChipMOS, and CHT spreads have also experienced significant swings since our last dual-listings piece.


Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Spread Opens Again for Opportunity; Others Have Swung Substantially

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.26bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.26bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Chipping Away

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

<ul>
<li>Broadcom Inc. has been the best-performing semiconductor stock over the past 3-month period.</li>
<li>Robust demand partially justifies the recent share price increase, but not all the way to a near double-digit revenue multiple.</li>
<li>Just three months ago, I analyzed Broadcom Inc.'s (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper">NASDAQ:AVGO</span>) strong business model through the lens of profitability, competitive advantages and capital allocation.</li>
</ul>


Broadcom Inc. has been the best-performing semiconductor stock over the past 3-month period.
Robust demand partially justifies the recent share price increase, but not all the way to a near double-digit revenue multiple.
Just three months ago, I analyzed Broadcom Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AVGO) strong business model through the lens of profitability, competitive advantages and capital allocation.


United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Graphcore. A Cautionary Tale For Would-Be NVIDIA Challengers

Once valued at ~$2.8 billion, the former UK Unicorn is but a shadow of its original self. Their IPU design was far too ambitious from the outset...

William Keating

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 6/12

As shown in recent legislation, one of the few areas of agreement within a divided US Congress is infrastructure investment and spending.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Spread Opens Again for Opportunity; Others Have Swung Substantially

TSMC's spread has fallen and then spiked again. ASE, ChipMOS, and CHT spreads have also experienced significant swings since our last dual-listings...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Chipping Away

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$358m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas

Broadcom: Proceed With Caution

Broadcom Inc. has been the best-performing semiconductor stock over the past 3-month period. Robust demand partially justifies the recent share...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

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