Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.</li>
<li>This was a possibility we discussed in last week's Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.</li>
<li>We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass</li>
</ul>


Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.
This was a possibility we discussed in last week's Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.
We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass


Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Micron's earnings were… acceptable.</li>
<li>
The market didn’t like the guide, but I think it is more of a function of expectations management.
</li>
<li>
Micron is clearly on the upswing, and the stock needs healthy revenue and profit beats.

</li>
</ul>


Micron's earnings were… acceptable.

The market didn’t like the guide, but I think it is more of a function of expectations management.


Micron is clearly on the upswing, and the stock needs healthy revenue and profit beats.




Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Broadcom's Strong Q2 Performance: Broadcom's Q2 revenue surged 43% year-over-year to USD 12.5 billion, driven by AI demand and VMware contributions.</li>
<li>Dominance in AI ASIC Market: Broadcom holds a 60% market share in AI-specific integrated circuits, serving major clients like Alphabet and Meta.</li>
<li>Lead up to Stock Split Upside Potential: Mega caps have seen an average 17% outperformance relative to S&amp;P 500 from announcement to actual stock split, signaling sharp upside for Broadcom.</li>
</ul>


Broadcom's Strong Q2 Performance: Broadcom's Q2 revenue surged 43% year-over-year to USD 12.5 billion, driven by AI demand and VMware contributions.
Dominance in AI ASIC Market: Broadcom holds a 60% market share in AI-specific integrated circuits, serving major clients like Alphabet and Meta.
Lead up to Stock Split Upside Potential: Mega caps have seen an average 17% outperformance relative to S&amp;P 500 from announcement to actual stock split, signaling sharp upside for Broadcom.


Broadcom's AI-Driven Growth Signals Upside Amid Stock Split Surges

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Delta Taiwan has outperformed Delta Taiwan recently. The parent vs. subsidiary market cap ratio is now trading consistently over 1.0x. and can go higher in our view.</li>
<li>Nvidia opportunities and other similar cutting edge technologies will first go to Delta Electronics Taiwan (2308 TT) and not to Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB).</li>
<li>Conclusion -- Expect further Delta Taiwan outperformance over the long-term vs. Delta Thailand.</li>
</ul>


Delta Taiwan has outperformed Delta Taiwan recently. The parent vs. subsidiary market cap ratio is now trading consistently over 1.0x. and can go higher in our view.
Nvidia opportunities and other similar cutting edge technologies will first go to Delta Electronics Taiwan (2308 TT) and not to Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB).
Conclusion -- Expect further Delta Taiwan outperformance over the long-term vs. Delta Thailand.


Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Taiwan's Nvidia Solutions Show Why TW Better Value Than Thailand

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Expect Micron to report strength in AI, highlight the company's HBM efforts, and quote McKinsey's trillion-dollar forecast in their earnings call tomorrow</li>
<li>Although Nvidia's growth has really helped the DRAM market, along with 2023 CapEx cuts, there are important concerns of double-ordering which could lead to a collapse soon</li>
<li>Semiconductor market revenues have leveled off since December 2023, hinting a return to more normal growth for the rest of the year</li>
</ul>


Expect Micron to report strength in AI, highlight the company's HBM efforts, and quote McKinsey's trillion-dollar forecast in their earnings call tomorrow
Although Nvidia's growth has really helped the DRAM market, along with 2023 CapEx cuts, there are important concerns of double-ordering which could lead to a collapse soon
Semiconductor market revenues have leveled off since December 2023, hinting a return to more normal growth for the rest of the year


United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF as discussed 5/29/24; Downgrading Materials $XLB to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long Software Stocks $IGV $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale

High expectations for Micron, SiTime Spectrum-X (s/o Ian Cutress) and Consumer Bottoming, and thoughts on Semiconductors (Bearish!)

Fabricated Knowledge

Broadcom's AI-Driven Growth Signals Upside Amid Stock Split Surges

Broadcom’s dominance in AI-specific circuits, stunning Q2 earnings & stock split could send its shares soaring akin to those of NVIDIA. Initial...

Mint Finance

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Taiwan's Nvidia Solutions Show Why TW Better Value Than Thailand

Delta Taiwan has outperformed its Delta Thailand subsidiary recently. It has better access to cutting edge opportunities than its subsidiary....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron Earnings - What to Expect

Micron will highlight AI strength & HBM in its earnings call, but double-ordering could soon lead to a market collapse. Semiconductor market...

Jim Handy

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Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF as discussed 5/29/24; Downgrading Materials $XLB to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long Software Stocks $IGV $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale

High expectations for Micron, SiTime Spectrum-X (s/o Ian Cutress) and Consumer Bottoming, and thoughts on Semiconductors (Bearish!)

Fabricated Knowledge

Broadcom's AI-Driven Growth Signals Upside Amid Stock Split Surges

Broadcom’s dominance in AI-specific circuits, stunning Q2 earnings & stock split could send its shares soaring akin to those of NVIDIA. Initial...

Mint Finance

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Taiwan's Nvidia Solutions Show Why TW Better Value Than Thailand

​Delta Taiwan has outperformed its Delta Thailand subsidiary recently. It has better access to cutting edge opportunities than its subsidiary....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron Earnings - What to Expect

​Micron will highlight AI strength & HBM in its earnings call, but double-ordering could soon lead to a market collapse. Semiconductor market...

Jim Handy

Delta Taiwan has outperformed its Delta Thailand subsidiary recently. It has better access to cutting edge opportunities than its subsidiary....

Micron will highlight AI strength & HBM in its earnings call, but double-ordering could soon lead to a market collapse. Semiconductor market...