Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.</li>
<li>I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.</li>
<li>I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.</li>
</ul>


The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.
I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.
I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.


My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

<ul>
<li>Most loans with collateral floors are at or below thresholds, and all three court deposits are near or under a 30% drop from their initial valuation.</li>
<li>No solid intel on share sales yet, and it's unlikely they’ll sell Samsung Electronics after a 30% dip. They may focus on their stakes in Samsung Life or Samsung SDS.</li>
<li>There's talk Samsung might boost prices to help the family avoid the collateral floor issue, but with DRAM demand down, a major shareholder return seems unlikely for now.</li>
</ul>


Most loans with collateral floors are at or below thresholds, and all three court deposits are near or under a 30% drop from their initial valuation.
No solid intel on share sales yet, and it's unlikely they’ll sell Samsung Electronics after a 30% dip. They may focus on their stakes in Samsung Life or Samsung SDS.
There's talk Samsung might boost prices to help the family avoid the collateral floor issue, but with DRAM demand down, a major shareholder return seems unlikely for now.


Situation Flagged: Sammy Stock Hits Level that Squeezes Family’s Loan Collateral Floor

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>While the short-selling ban for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> will remain in place until the first months of 2025, that does not prevent the index from pulling back.</li>
<li>Pullbacks, in this context, are an opportunity to buy, in the hope the index will rise higher from its current position.</li>
<li>Our models right now are showing a short-term WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT scenario coming in the next 2 weeks. Keep reading for more details.</li>
</ul>


While the short-selling ban for the KOSPI 200 INDEX will remain in place until the first months of 2025, that does not prevent the index from pulling back.
Pullbacks, in this context, are an opportunity to buy, in the hope the index will rise higher from its current position.
Our models right now are showing a short-term WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT scenario coming in the next 2 weeks. Keep reading for more details.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>On 26 September, the Korea Exchange announced that it is considering a "special rebalancing" of the Korea Value-Up Index in December 2024.</li>
<li>In our view, the probability of this special rebalancing occurring by the end of this year is high at about 85%+.</li>
<li>If there is a special rebalancing, KB Financial, Hana Financial, Samsung Life Insurance, SK Telecom, and KT could be considered the top candidates for inclusion. </li>
</ul>


On 26 September, the Korea Exchange announced that it is considering a "special rebalancing" of the Korea Value-Up Index in December 2024.
In our view, the probability of this special rebalancing occurring by the end of this year is high at about 85%+.
If there is a special rebalancing, KB Financial, Hana Financial, Samsung Life Insurance, SK Telecom, and KT could be considered the top candidates for inclusion. 


A Special Rebalancing Of Korea Value-Up Index Is Likely in December 2024

Samsung KODEX Samsung Group ETF / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This KODEX Samsung Group ETF sees 30% AUM outflows pre-rebalancing, with the same chunk flowing back in after, especially noticeable during December.</li>
<li>Over three years, local brokers sold stock baskets before rebalancing, causing notable price impacts. During this time, Samsung affiliates in the ETF delivered 3-4% returns.</li>
<li>ChatGPT said:ChatGPTThis isn’t typical NAV arbitrage; it’s likely an unhedged play. Nonetheless, given the consistent price impact and accessible stock futures, it’s worth considering.</li>
</ul>


This KODEX Samsung Group ETF sees 30% AUM outflows pre-rebalancing, with the same chunk flowing back in after, especially noticeable during December.
Over three years, local brokers sold stock baskets before rebalancing, causing notable price impacts. During this time, Samsung affiliates in the ETF delivered 3-4% returns.
ChatGPT said:ChatGPTThis isn’t typical NAV arbitrage; it’s likely an unhedged play. Nonetheless, given the consistent price impact and accessible stock futures, it’s worth considering.


Unique Rebalancing Pattern & Unique Trading Angle of the KODEX Samsung Group ETF

South Korea

Samsung Life Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers life and health insurance services. Samsung Life Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

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Samsung Life Insurance (032830 KS)

My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

This post contains my personal view on the three scenarios triggered by Samsung Electronics' buyback that shook the market today.

Sanghyun Park

Situation Flagged: Sammy Stock Hits Level that Squeezes Family’s Loan Collateral Floor

Samsung Electronics hits a level squeezing the Samsung family’s stock-backed loan collateral floor, tied to their inheritance tax—definitely a key...

Sanghyun Park

EQD | KOSPI 200 May Pullback Soon...

Pullbacks on the KOSPI 200 INDEX are currently a buy opportunity, given the short-selling ban still in place. We predict a short-term WEEKLY...

Nico Rosti

A Special Rebalancing Of Korea Value-Up Index Is Likely in December 2024

On 26 September, the Korea Exchange announced that it is considering a "special rebalancing" of the Korea Value-Up Index in December 2024.

Douglas Kim

Unique Rebalancing Pattern & Unique Trading Angle of the KODEX Samsung Group ETF

This post explores the unique rebalancing pattern and the resulting trading angle of the KODEX Samsung Group ETF (102780 KS).

Sanghyun Park

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