Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<p>Last week it was revealed that Warren Buffet had taken stakes of about 5% in Japan’s five major trading companies. This comes at a time when the Japanese market overall offers value investors rich pickings relative to valuations that had been getting more stretched by the day in other regions, especially the US. Below, we provide a quick synopsis of the trading companies’ business models and our thoughts on other potential investments that could attract Berkshire.</p>

Last week it was revealed that Warren Buffet had taken stakes of about 5% in Japan’s five major trading companies. This comes at a time when the Japanese market overall offers value investors rich pickings relative to valuations that had been getting more stretched by the day in other regions, especially the US. Below, we provide a quick synopsis of the trading companies’ business models and our thoughts on other potential investments that could attract Berkshire.

A Quick Look at the Buffet Trade and the Most Obvious Follow-Ons

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<p>With the bulk of the dividends for 2020 announced and guidance provided for the rest of the year by most constituent companies, the Nikkei225 2020 dividend futures have little upside and a bit more downside from the current trading level of 400 index points. From the time we published our last <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nikkei225-dividend-futures-trading-near-our-bull-case" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Insight</a> highlighting that the dividend futures were trading near our bull case, the market is 10 points lower.</p><p>The 2020 dividend futures briefly rallied on hopes of a special dividend from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/familymart-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1" rel="noopener">FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP)</a>, but has come off again. With companies having announced their quarterly results and guidance, the focus now shifts to the 2021 dividend futures.</p><p>At current levels, we do not see any significant opportunity on the 2021 div futures. However, we provide estimates for our bear case, base case and bull case scenarios that can be used to enter/exit positions on moves in the dividend futures due to large changes in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>, in macroeconomic indicators, and/or hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine.</p>

With the bulk of the dividends for 2020 announced and guidance provided for the rest of the year by most constituent companies, the Nikkei225 2020 dividend futures have little upside and a bit more downside from the current trading level of 400 index points. From the time we published our last Insight highlighting that the dividend futures were trading near our bull case, the market is 10 points lower.The 2020 dividend futures briefly rallied on hopes of a special dividend from FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP), but has come off again. With companies having announced their quarterly results and guidance, the focus now shifts to the 2021 dividend futures.At current levels, we do not see any significant opportunity on the 2021 div futures. However, we provide estimates for our bear case, base case and bull case scenarios that can be used to enter/exit positions on moves in the dividend futures due to large changes in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX), in macroeconomic indicators, and/or hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Nikkei225 Dividend Futures: Focus Shifts to 2021

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shin-Etsu reported its 1QFY03/2021 results on Tuesday (28th July 2020) after market which saw both revenue and OP decline on a YoY basis. All the segments reported YoY drop in revenue and OP.</li>
<li>Shin-Etsu’s largest business, PVC/Chlor-Alkali business saw decline in revenue for a fourth consecutive quarter due to poor market conditions. The company expects price increases alongside improving market conditions to support a recovery in the segment towards the end of the year.</li>
<li>The company’s share price has rallied significantly since mid-March 2020 as the market expects the semiconductor silicon demand to rebound in 2021 leading to supply constraints.</li>
<li>Given the uncertainty in the markets caused by Covid-19 and the recent rally in the company’s share price, we remain cautious about further increase in the company’s share price in the short-term.</li>
</ul>


Shin-Etsu reported its 1QFY03/2021 results on Tuesday (28th July 2020) after market which saw both revenue and OP decline on a YoY basis. All the segments reported YoY drop in revenue and OP.
Shin-Etsu’s largest business, PVC/Chlor-Alkali business saw decline in revenue for a fourth consecutive quarter due to poor market conditions. The company expects price increases alongside improving market conditions to support a recovery in the segment towards the end of the year.
The company’s share price has rallied significantly since mid-March 2020 as the market expects the semiconductor silicon demand to rebound in 2021 leading to supply constraints.
Given the uncertainty in the markets caused by Covid-19 and the recent rally in the company’s share price, we remain cautious about further increase in the company’s share price in the short-term.


Shin-Etsu: All Segments Seeing Declines; Earnings Rebound Could Take Longer

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/490/original/2020-07-29_05-46-56.png?1595972235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148490"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/491/original/2020-07-29_05-47-39.png?1595972270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148491"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>OUTLIERS</strong> - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's case - the SPE business of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a> and the FA business of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>.  The latter's forecast, if achieved, would take their incremental operating profit margin to -2,631. While the market has over-reacted to TEL's stability, many, including this writer, have been overly complacent about the pace Fanuc's recovery. The SPE and FAA business cycles are no longer synchronised, and Fanuc's valuations have yet to adjust to that new reality.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/493/original/2020-07-29_06-48-44.png?1595972935" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148493"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/494/original/2020-07-29_06-49-07.png?1595972973" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148494"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>55 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 14 Positive / 1 Neutral / 40 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.4</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -11.8% Quarter YoY / -2.4% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.0ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 31%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>23 Annual • 17 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score</strong>: 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 16 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -9.8</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsOUTLIERS - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's case - the SPE business of Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) and the FA business of Fanuc (6954 JP).  The latter's forecast, if achieved, would take their incremental operating profit margin to -2,631. While the market has over-reacted to TEL's stability, many, including this writer, have been overly complacent about the pace Fanuc's recovery. The SPE and FAA business cycles are no longer synchronised, and Fanuc's valuations have yet to adjust to that new reality.Source • Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS55 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 14 Positive / 1 Neutral / 40 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -11.8% Quarter YoY / -2.4% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 31%
 23 Annual • 17 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 16 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.8


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th July - TEL, Fanuc, Canon, Nissan, Shin-Etsu, Omron

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/496/original/2020-06-30_14-16-44.png?1593494217" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143496"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>THE CASH CONVERSION CYCLE</strong> - Net Working Capital is a measure of how efficiently a company manages its short-term assets and liabilities to generate cash and is also known as the Cash Conversion Cycle. In practice, Net Working Capital is scaled by the number of days of Revenue or Cost of Goods Sold that are 'tied' up in three components - Receivables, Inventory, and Payables.</p>
<p><strong>Net Working Capital Days</strong> varies by industry and the lower the number, the better. Amounts over 210 days are excessive, and a sign of business stress.  Net Working Capital is defined as:-</p>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>+ Receivables/Revenue </strong>- the average number of days required to collect on sales. Businesses usually extend a degree of credit to non-cash customers.  Receivables Days over 100 are excessive.</li>
<li>
<strong>+ Inventory/Cost of Goods Sold -</strong> the average number of days it takes to sell out of Inventory. Amounts vary widely by industry but days over 210 are excessive.</li>
<li>- <strong>Payables/Cost of Goods Sold -</strong>the average number of days the company takes to settle transactions with suppliers. By extending nominally interest-free credit, suppliers provide operating leverage to a business. A larger negative number is better, but days less than -100 are excessive.</li>
</ul>
<p>The relationship between Receivables and Payables should also be considered particularly where the company is giving more generous credit terms to its customers than it receives from its suppliers. The Cash Conversion Cycle for the aggregate of all non-financial currently-listed Japanese companies has averaged 77 days over the last thirty years. However, over the previous twelve months., a fourteen-day rise in Inventory Days during the last four years has pushed Net Working Capital Days to 93.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/529/original/2020-06-30_15-09-41.png?1593497395" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143529"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/530/original/2020-06-30_15-10-32.png?1593497471" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143530"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<div class="content-caption"></div>
<p><strong>NET WORKING CAPITAL DAYS AS A STRESS TEST</strong> - The correlation between Net Working Capital Days and relative performance varies by company and by Sectors. The examples above show how signals can be heeded -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7117:1" rel="noopener">Nikon (7731 JP)</a>, or ignored - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP)</a> since 2018. (For more on SMC working capital issues, please see my colleague <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/scott-foster" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1134" rel="noopener">Scott Foster</a>'s Insight of last year - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smc-6273-jp-getting-in-line-with-reality" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30081" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP): Getting in Line with Reality</a>).   </p>
<p>For this Insight, we have limited our review to larger capitalisation manufacturing companies. In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall cover the outliers at both ends of <strong>Receivables Days</strong>, <strong>Inventory Days</strong>, <strong>Payables Days</strong>, and finally <strong>Net Working Capital Days</strong>.</p>


Source • Japan Analytics
THE CASH CONVERSION CYCLE - Net Working Capital is a measure of how efficiently a company manages its short-term assets and liabilities to generate cash and is also known as the Cash Conversion Cycle. In practice, Net Working Capital is scaled by the number of days of Revenue or Cost of Goods Sold that are 'tied' up in three components - Receivables, Inventory, and Payables.
Net Working Capital Days varies by industry and the lower the number, the better. Amounts over 210 days are excessive, and a sign of business stress.  Net Working Capital is defined as:-


+ Receivables/Revenue - the average number of days required to collect on sales. Businesses usually extend a degree of credit to non-cash customers.  Receivables Days over 100 are excessive.

+ Inventory/Cost of Goods Sold - the average number of days it takes to sell out of Inventory. Amounts vary widely by industry but days over 210 are excessive.
- Payables/Cost of Goods Sold -the average number of days the company takes to settle transactions with suppliers. By extending nominally interest-free credit, suppliers provide operating leverage to a business. A larger negative number is better, but days less than -100 are excessive.

The relationship between Receivables and Payables should also be considered particularly where the company is giving more generous credit terms to its customers than it receives from its suppliers. The Cash Conversion Cycle for the aggregate of all non-financial currently-listed Japanese companies has averaged 77 days over the last thirty years. However, over the previous twelve months., a fourteen-day rise in Inventory Days during the last four years has pushed Net Working Capital Days to 93.


Source • Japan Analytics

NET WORKING CAPITAL DAYS AS A STRESS TEST - The correlation between Net Working Capital Days and relative performance varies by company and by Sectors. The examples above show how signals can be heeded -  Nikon (7731 JP), or ignored - SMC (6273 JP) since 2018. (For more on SMC working capital issues, please see my colleague Scott Foster's Insight of last year - SMC (6273 JP): Getting in Line with Reality).   
For this Insight, we have limited our review to larger capitalisation manufacturing companies. In the DETAIL section below, we shall cover the outliers at both ends of Receivables Days, Inventory Days, Payables Days, and finally Net Working Capital Days.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stress Tests Part 5: Net Working Capital Outliers

Japan

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. produces and distributes synthetic resins and other chemical products such as fertilizers. The Company also manufactures electronic materials such as semiconductor silicon, synthetic, and rare earth quartz. Shin-Etsu Chemical operates in Japan and overseas.

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Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)

A Quick Look at the Buffet Trade and the Most Obvious Follow-Ons

Last week it was revealed that Warren Buffet had taken stakes of about 5% in Japan’s five major trading companies. This comes at a time when the...

Mio Kato

Nikkei225 Dividend Futures: Focus Shifts to 2021

With the bulk of the dividends for 2020 announced and guidance provided for the rest of the year by most constituent companies, the Nikkei225 2020...

Brian Freitas

Shin-Etsu: All Segments Seeing Declines; Earnings Rebound Could Take Longer

Shin-Etsu reported its 1QFY03/2021 results on Tuesday (28th July 2020) after market which saw both revenue and OP decline on a YoY basis. All the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th July - TEL, Fanuc, Canon, Nissan, Shin-Etsu, Omron

OUTLIERS - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stress Tests Part 5: Net Working Capital Outliers

THE CASH CONVERSION CYCLE - Net Working Capital is a measure of how efficiently a company manages its short-term assets and liabilities to...

Campbell Gunn

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