IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hello-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33031:1" rel="noopener">Hello Inc (1883864D US)</a>, which is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a>, is China's third-largest local services platform by transaction volume, according to iResearch. Hello offers bike-sharing and e-bike sharing services known as Hello Bike and Hello e-Bike. It also has a carpooling marketplace known as Hello Carpooling. Hello is seeking to raise $1 billion through a Nasdaq listing, according to press reports.   In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hello-ipo-initiation-goodbye" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50795" rel="noopener">Hello IPO Initiation: Goodbye</a> we stated that Hello’s investor pitch is that its various businesses create a flywheel that drives user spending growth with limited user acquisition costs. However, Hello remains saddled with a core business (shared two-wheeler services) that has challenging prospects due to declining growth, low profitability and high cash burn. <div class="content-highlight">Hello has released an updated F-1 filing disclosing its 1Q21 performance and other developments. At first glance, the 1Q21 update looks stunning due to accelerating growth and margin progression. However, a closer look, suggests that business continues to face daunting challenges. Overall, we stick to our view to give the Hello IPO a pass.    </div>

Hello Inc (1883864D US), which is backed by Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK), is China's third-largest local services platform by transaction volume, according to iResearch. Hello offers bike-sharing and e-bike sharing services known as Hello Bike and Hello e-Bike. It also has a carpooling marketplace known as Hello Carpooling. Hello is seeking to raise $1 billion through a Nasdaq listing, according to press reports.   In Hello IPO Initiation: Goodbye we stated that Hello’s investor pitch is that its various businesses create a flywheel that drives user spending growth with limited user acquisition costs. However, Hello remains saddled with a core business (shared two-wheeler services) that has challenging prospects due to declining growth, low profitability and high cash burn. Hello has released an updated F-1 filing disclosing its 1Q21 performance and other developments. At first glance, the 1Q21 update looks stunning due to accelerating growth and margin progression. However, a closer look, suggests that business continues to face daunting challenges. Overall, we stick to our view to give the Hello IPO a pass.    

Hello IPO: 1Q21 Update Does Not Change the Avoid Tag

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOM IN)</a> recently filed its <a href="https://www.sebi.gov.in/filings/public-issues/apr-2021/zomato-limited-drhp_49956.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DRHP</a> with the SEBI last week. ZOM is one of the two Online Food Delivery (OFD) players in India, the other being Swiggy.
ZOM's IPO is also the ray of hope for the many consumer tech and internet companies in India and thus is expected to be the one that receives the maximum attention.
India OFD is a multi-decade play, and hence rather than just one insight, ZOM will be in our coverage with multiple insights over various periods of time even post IPO. 
This Insight focuses on Total Addressable Market (TAM) and SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market) for OFD players in India along with an overview of the current market structure.

Zomato (ZOM IN) recently filed its DRHP with the SEBI last week. ZOM is one of the two Online Food Delivery (OFD) players in India, the other being Swiggy.
ZOM's IPO is also the ray of hope for the many consumer tech and internet companies in India and thus is expected to be the one that receives the maximum attention.
India OFD is a multi-decade play, and hence rather than just one insight, ZOM will be in our coverage with multiple insights over various periods of time even post IPO. 
This Insight focuses on Total Addressable Market (TAM) and SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market) for OFD players in India along with an overview of the current market structure. 

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hello-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33031:1" rel="noopener">Hello Inc (1883864D US)</a> is China's third-largest local services platform by transaction volume, according to iResearch. Hello offers bike-sharing and e-bike sharing services known as Hello Bike and Hello e-Bike. It also has a carpooling marketplace known as Hello Carpooling. Hello is seeking to raise $1 billion through a Nasdaq listing, according to press reports. Hello is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a> which owns 36.3% of the outstanding shares. The bike-sharing industry has proved to be a challenging market to generate investment returns as evidenced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>’s restructuring and impairments related to Mobike. Hello’s investor pitch is that its various businesses create a flywheel effect (a popular term abused by many tech IPO hopefuls) that drives user spending growth with limited user acquisition costs. Hello is suggesting that its core business (shared two-wheeler services) brings a large captive user base to feed its more capital-light and profitable businesses such as carpooling. <div class="content-highlight">However, the issue with this rose-tinted view is that Hello remains saddled with a core business that has challenging prospects due to declining growth, low profitability and high cash burn. Also, investors seeking a pure-play on the carpooling market may be better off participating in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dida-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29701:1" rel="noopener">Dida (DIDA HK)</a> IPO. Overall, we are inclined to give the Hello IPO a pass.    </div>

Hello Inc (1883864D US) is China's third-largest local services platform by transaction volume, according to iResearch. Hello offers bike-sharing and e-bike sharing services known as Hello Bike and Hello e-Bike. It also has a carpooling marketplace known as Hello Carpooling. Hello is seeking to raise $1 billion through a Nasdaq listing, according to press reports. Hello is backed by Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) which owns 36.3% of the outstanding shares. The bike-sharing industry has proved to be a challenging market to generate investment returns as evidenced by Meituan (3690 HK)’s restructuring and impairments related to Mobike. Hello’s investor pitch is that its various businesses create a flywheel effect (a popular term abused by many tech IPO hopefuls) that drives user spending growth with limited user acquisition costs. Hello is suggesting that its core business (shared two-wheeler services) brings a large captive user base to feed its more capital-light and profitable businesses such as carpooling. However, the issue with this rose-tinted view is that Hello remains saddled with a core business that has challenging prospects due to declining growth, low profitability and high cash burn. Also, investors seeking a pure-play on the carpooling market may be better off participating in the Dida (DIDA HK) IPO. Overall, we are inclined to give the Hello IPO a pass.    

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Grab, Huarong, Invesco Office, Intouch, Jardines

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

The ride-hailing giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> announced on Tuesday (13th April 2021) that it plans to go public in the US via a SPAC merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altimeter-growth-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33007:1" rel="noopener">Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US)</a>  at a proposed valuation (pro-forma) of approx. US$39.6bn.In our previous insight on Grab’s SPAC deal, we discussed the company’s growth prospects and its financials. In this insight, we examine the company’s valuation using a SOTP.

The ride-hailing giant Grab (0967655D SP) announced on Tuesday (13th April 2021) that it plans to go public in the US via a SPAC merger with Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US)  at a proposed valuation (pro-forma) of approx. US$39.6bn.In our previous insight on Grab’s SPAC deal, we discussed the company’s growth prospects and its financials. In this insight, we examine the company’s valuation using a SOTP.

Grab: SOTP Suggests Steep Discount to Proposed SPAC Valuation

United States

Uber Technologies Inc provides ride hailing services. The Company develops applications for road transportation, navigation, ride sharing, and payment processing solutions. Uber Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Uber Technologies (UBER US)

Hello IPO: 1Q21 Update Does Not Change the Avoid Tag

Hello has released an updated F-1 filing disclosing its 1Q21 performance and other developments. The 1Q21 results suggest that business continues...

Arun George

Zomato (ZOM IN) | The "Desi" TAMinator

Indian OFD is a humungous opportunity. A conductive market structure, a two-player market, decreasing discounts, ability to increase delivery...

Pranav Bhavsar

Hello IPO Initiation: Goodbye

Hello is seeking to raise $1 billion through a Nasdaq listing, according to press reports. Overall, we are inclined to give the Hello IPO a pass.

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Grab, Huarong, Invesco Office, Intouch, Jardines

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Grab: SOTP Suggests Steep Discount to Proposed SPAC Valuation

Our SOTP valuation implies significant downside to Grab’s pro-forma valuation of the proposed SPAC deal even after assigning generous target...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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