Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>E-Commerce growth slowed marginally as the sector consolidated post-Covid but remained higher than any other channel in 2022. </li>
<li>By 2025-26, it will be the largest channel, overtaking convenience stores – but Japan’s continuing support for retail stores means that omnichannel will be the main model.</li>
<li>As a result, the majority of transactions will be researched, initiated, and fulfilled through a combination of online and physical stores.</li>
</ul>


E-Commerce growth slowed marginally as the sector consolidated post-Covid but remained higher than any other channel in 2022. 
By 2025-26, it will be the largest channel, overtaking convenience stores – but Japan’s continuing support for retail stores means that omnichannel will be the main model.
As a result, the majority of transactions will be researched, initiated, and fulfilled through a combination of online and physical stores.


E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>, a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$236 million at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550 per share.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trial-holdings-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:130521" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings IPO: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$236 million at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550 per share.
We previously discussed the IPO in Trial Holdings IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550. We would participate in the IPO.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> - this is done.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a> announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?</li>
</ul>


Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. 

Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for CSR Ltd (CSR AU) - this is done.

Rakuten Group (4755 JP) announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toei-animation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18641:1" rel="noopener">Toei Animation (4816 JP)</a>'s prices its US$550 million secondary offering and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services Internation (APM AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Toei Animation (4816 JP)'s prices its US$550 million secondary offering and Trial Holdings (5882 JP) IPO.
Event-Driven developments: Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP), Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP), Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), Samsonite (1910 HK), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), APM Human Services Internation (APM AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (03 Mar) - Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, Samsonite, Adbri, Alumina, APM

<ul>
<li>Aeon will almost definitely increase its stake in Tsuruha Holdings, which on its own will catalyse drugstore competitors to consider their mergeable options.</li>
<li>Tsuruha MAY merge with Welcia under Aeon and just talk of this will catalyse drugstore competitors even more.</li>
<li>But the ongoing fusion of drugstore retailing and FMCG formats like supermarkets and convenience stores, will also spur the entire FMCG sector to respond to Aeon's massive potential dominance.</li>
</ul>


Aeon will almost definitely increase its stake in Tsuruha Holdings, which on its own will catalyse drugstore competitors to consider their mergeable options.
Tsuruha MAY merge with Welcia under Aeon and just talk of this will catalyse drugstore competitors even more.
But the ongoing fusion of drugstore retailing and FMCG formats like supermarkets and convenience stores, will also spur the entire FMCG sector to respond to Aeon's massive potential dominance.


Aeon (Maybe) Gets Tsuruha, Could Trigger Wave of Mergers in the Sector (And Beyond)

Japan

LAWSON, INC. operates a chain of convenience stores in Japan. The Company sells a variety of products including fast food, beverages, snacks, magazines, newspapers, and sundry goods.

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

KOBE BUSSAN CO., LTD. is a supermarket franchise store operator which mainly deals in foods stuffs.  The Company also has direct-run stores.

Yaoko Co., Ltd. operates local supermarkets in the Saitama Prefecture. The Company handles fresh food products, daily-use sundry products, and other various goods in local area.

COSMOS Pharmaceutical Corporation operates drug stores based in Kyushu. The Company sells daily necessities such as drug medicines, foodstuffs, and alcoholic beverages.

SUGI HOLDINGS CO., LTD. operates a chain of drug stores located mainly in Aichi Prefecture.  The Company sells prescription and nonprescription medicine, cosmetics, health foods, and general merchandise.

TSURUHA HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company which manages subsidiaries that operate drug stores in Hokkaido and the Tohoku area.  The Company's product line includes drugs, cosmetics, and household utensils.

SUNDRUG CO., LTD. operates an outlet drug store chain primarily in the Tokyo area.  The Company sells mainly medicines, cosmetics, baby care products, and household utensils.  Sundrug supplies merchandise to franchise stores.  The Company also operates a real estate business.

WELCIA HOLDINGS CO.,LTD. is a holding company established through a merger of Welcia Kanto and Takada Pharmacy.  The Group mainly operates drug chain stores which sell medicines, health foods, cosmetics, nursery items and daily necessity goods.

Kusuri no Aoki Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides medicines, cosmetics, health foods, beauty care, and household products. Kusuri no Aoki Holdings serves customers in Japan.

Casey's General Stores, Inc. operates convenience stores in the Midwest.  The Company's stores, operating under the name Casey's General Store, carry a selection of food, beverages, tobacco products, health and beauty aids, automotive products, and other non-food items, as well as sells gasoline.

CP ALL PCL operates convenience store chains in Thailand and China.  The Company also owns and operates the a department store chain located primarily in Shanghai city and Chonqing city of China.

Jeronimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. is a holding company. The Company, through subsidiaries, distributes food in Portugal, Poland and Colombia. The Company operates supermarkets and cash and carry stores in Portugal as well as retail stores in Poland and Colombia. Jeronimo Martins also manufactures various food products as well as provides services to the restaurant industry.

Carrefour SA operates chains of supermarkets, hypermarkets, discount, cash and carry, and frozen food stores in Europe, the Americas, and Asia.

BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S. operates food and basic consumer goods discount stores in Turkey.  The Company provides an assortment of private label products.

George Weston Limited operates as a super market. The Company processes and distributes food and pharmacy products to grocer wholesalers, warehouses, and independent accounts, as well as provides real estate services. George Weston serves customers in Canada.

Metro Inc. distributes food and pharmaceutical products. The Company operates a network of food stores and drug stores in the provinces of Quebec and Ontario.

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. operates as a warehouse club. The Company delivers electronics, furniture, fitness, video games, health, toys, home decor, computers, landscaping, jewelry, and grocery products. BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings serves customers in the United States.

Coles Group Limited owns and operates a chain of supermarkets and department stores. The Company offers apparels, liquor, office supplies, groceries, and household products. Coles Group serves customers throughout Australia and New Zealand.

US Foods Holding Corp. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides catering services. US Foods Holding serves healthcare, hospitality, educational, government facilities, and other sectors in the United States.

AEON CO., LTD. operates general merchandise stores, supermarkets, and convenience stores throughout Japan. The Company is also engaged in women's and casual clothing store business, development business of commercial property, and financing service through the subsidiaries.

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Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)

E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

E-commerce growth in Japan remains strong post-Covid, set to overtake convenience stores by 2025-26, with omnichannel model becoming dominant for...

Michael Causton

Trial Holdings IPO: Valuation Thoughts

Trial has upsized its IPO from US$236m to US$260m by launching its IPO at JPY1,600-1,700 per share vs. the reference price of JPY1,550. The offer...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (03 Mar) - Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, Samsonite, Adbri, Alumina, APM

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, ESR, Samsonite, Weiqiao Textile, Adbri, Alumina, CSR)...

Arun George

Aeon (Maybe) Gets Tsuruha, Could Trigger Wave of Mergers in the Sector (And Beyond)

Aeon's potential increased stake in Tsuruha Holdings and possible merger with Welcia will likely prompt drugstore competitors to consider their...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

​E-commerce growth in Japan remains strong post-Covid, set to overtake convenience stores by 2025-26, with omnichannel model becoming dominant for...

Michael Causton

Trial Holdings IPO: Valuation Thoughts

Trial has upsized its IPO from US$236m to US$260m by launching its IPO at JPY1,600-1,700 per share vs. the reference price of JPY1,550. The offer...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (03 Mar) - Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, Samsonite, Adbri, Alumina, APM

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, ESR, Samsonite, Weiqiao Textile, Adbri, Alumina, CSR)...

Arun George

Aeon (Maybe) Gets Tsuruha, Could Trigger Wave of Mergers in the Sector (And Beyond)

​Aeon's potential increased stake in Tsuruha Holdings and possible merger with Welcia will likely prompt drugstore competitors to consider their...

Michael Causton

E-commerce growth in Japan remains strong post-Covid, set to overtake convenience stores by 2025-26, with omnichannel model becoming dominant for...

Aeon's potential increased stake in Tsuruha Holdings and possible merger with Welcia will likely prompt drugstore competitors to consider their...