HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd-49b9d808-e8c9-4049-a85a-5380de9f21ad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35558:1" rel="noopener"></a>YTD, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> has seen its share price weak, but we believe focus should not be on the poor FY22 result and the moderate 1Q23 generation growth.</li>
<li>Based on 5.5-6.5GW planned capacity expansion in FY23, this will mean a solid growth of 17.7-20.9% YoY. Coupled with efficiency improvement, we expect a sharp rebound in FY23 profit.</li>
<li>With impairment on Ukraine mostly made and reversal of exchange and trading losses, there will be a big swing in bottom line. We welcome the improvement in cash flow too.</li>
</ul>



YTD, China Longyuan Power (916 HK) has seen its share price weak, but we believe focus should not be on the poor FY22 result and the moderate 1Q23 generation growth.
Based on 5.5-6.5GW planned capacity expansion in FY23, this will mean a solid growth of 17.7-20.9% YoY. Coupled with efficiency improvement, we expect a sharp rebound in FY23 profit.
With impairment on Ukraine mostly made and reversal of exchange and trading losses, there will be a big swing in bottom line. We welcome the improvement in cash flow too.


China Longyuan (916 HK): We Stay on the Bull Camp

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>AI is poised to drive a large increase in power consumption on the mainland.  Data demand from generative AI necessitates more data centers and consequently more power.</li>
<li>China energy consumption is at the beginning of a super cycle as AI becomes integral to everyday corporate and eventually personal lives.</li>
<li>China's clean energy names will benefit from the China's energy strategy as its power needs from data centers surge.</li>
</ul>


AI is poised to drive a large increase in power consumption on the mainland.  Data demand from generative AI necessitates more data centers and consequently more power.
China energy consumption is at the beginning of a super cycle as AI becomes integral to everyday corporate and eventually personal lives.
China's clean energy names will benefit from the China's energy strategy as its power needs from data centers surge.


China Power International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Rmb10.8bn acquisition of clean energy assets from parent by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15548:1" rel="noopener">China Power International (2380 HK)</a> is positive in raising its clean energy proportion to over 70% of total capacity.</li>
<li>The drop in share price reflects concerns about elevation of gearing and the need for potential equity funding. However, even all equity financing scenario will only dilute EPS by 1%.</li>
<li>We think its earnings quality will improve, balance sheet will be enhanced and profitability will be raised. Its 1H23 positive profit alert also showed a recovery in operational performance. </li>
</ul>


The Rmb10.8bn acquisition of clean energy assets from parent by China Power International (2380 HK) is positive in raising its clean energy proportion to over 70% of total capacity.
The drop in share price reflects concerns about elevation of gearing and the need for potential equity funding. However, even all equity financing scenario will only dilute EPS by 1%.
We think its earnings quality will improve, balance sheet will be enhanced and profitability will be raised. Its 1H23 positive profit alert also showed a recovery in operational performance. 


China Power International (2380 HK): A Major Move to Raise Clean Energy Exposure

Equity Research in HK and Mainland China

Li Tang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Premier Li Keqiang emphasised ensuring stable energy supply and security and strengthening support for green development of energy sectors at the national energy committee meeting.
Premier Li stated some regions had set overly ambitious and unrealistic targets for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, while some industries failed to make solid energy-saving efforts in high-consuming sectors to prepare for this.

Premier Li Keqiang emphasised ensuring stable energy supply and security and strengthening support for green development of energy sectors at the national energy committee meeting.
Premier Li stated some regions had set overly ambitious and unrealistic targets for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, while some industries failed to make solid energy-saving efforts in high-consuming sectors to prepare for this.

Premier Li Keqiang Emphasises Energy Security and Stable Energy Supply

The State Council issued guideline on promoting standardized development for high-quality growth and modernization and met to address power supply shortages.The guideline also highlighted establishing carbon peak and carbon neutral standards, accelerating the energy-saving standards, setting stricter energy consumption quotas for some key products and equipment, expanding the coverage of energy consumption quota to reduce emissions.
Renewable energy operators or power operators with renewable energy capacity likely to benefit   after the State Council relaxed the ceiling on market-based power price increase from 10% to 20%. We recommend <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangdong-elec-power-dev-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25417:1" rel="noopener">Guangdong Elec Power Dev-A (000539 CH)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huaneng-power-intl-inc-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28:1" rel="noopener">Huaneng Power Intl Inc H (902 HK)</a> with room to increase after other constituents of his investment theme having already experienced rapid stock rises.

The State Council issued guideline on promoting standardized development for high-quality growth and modernization and met to address power supply shortages.The guideline also highlighted establishing carbon peak and carbon neutral standards, accelerating the energy-saving standards, setting stricter energy consumption quotas for some key products and equipment, expanding the coverage of energy consumption quota to reduce emissions.
Renewable energy operators or power operators with renewable energy capacity likely to benefit   after the State Council relaxed the ceiling on market-based power price increase from 10% to 20%. We recommend Guangdong Elec Power Dev-A (000539 CH), and Huaneng Power Intl Inc H (902 HK) with room to increase after other constituents of his investment theme having already experienced rapid stock rises.

State Council Issues Supportive Measures to Boost Power Supply

China

Huadian Power International Corporation Limited generates and sells electricity which is all fed into the Shandong Provincial Grid operated by Shandong Electric Power (Group) Corporation (SEPCO), the immediate holding company of the Company.  The Company also sells heat.

Guangxi Guiguan Electric Power Co.,Ltd. operates power generation businesses. The Company provides hydroelectric power and other power products. Guangxi Guiguan Electric Power also produces thermal power, wind power, and other power products.

Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co., Ltd. invests in electric power projects through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and manufactures cable, railroad control systems and other automation equipment.

China Longyuan Power Group Corp Ltd designs, develops, manages, and operates wind farms.  The Company also sells the electricity generated by the wind farms.

Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes textile products. The Company produces polyester filament and other chemical fiber products. Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong also conducts electricity-heat generation and petrochemical businesses.

Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co., Ltd. (000301 CH)

Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co., Ltd. supplies electric power through operating thermal power generation.  The Company also involves in the research and development of electric power, power and energy-saving technology development, technical consulting, sales of energy-saving products, electrical engineering and asset management.

Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power A (600023 CH)

Datang International Power Generation Co.,Ltd offers power generation services. The Company provides power project development, electricity transmission, and power distribution services. Datang International Power Generation also conducts coal, coal chemistry, transport, and recycling businesses.

Datang International Power Gen (601991 CH)

GD Power Development Co., Ltd. generates and distributes electric power and heat throughout China.  The Company also invests in new energy development and environmental protection projects.

Shenergy Company Limited develops, constructs, and invests in electric power and other energy related projects.  The Company distributes electric power, heat, and gas.

Shenzhen Energy Group Company, Ltd. generates and distributes electricity and gas. The Company supplies power to cities in the Peoples Republic of China, including Shenzhen, Huizhou and Dongguan, Guangdong Province.

Shenzhen Energy Group Co, Ltd. (000027 CH)

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

NHPC Ltd is a hydro-power development company based in India. The Company has constructed approximately 11 hydro-power projects in India and abroad with a total installed capacity of 2554.35 MW.

The AES Corporation acquires, develops, owns, and operates generation plants and distribution businesses in several countries. The Company sells electricity under long term contracts and serves customers under its regulated utility businesses. AES also mines coal, turns seawater into drinking water, and develops alternative sources of energy.

Engie Brasil Energia S.A. operates as an independent power producer. The Company offers exploration and production, transportation, distribution, and trading of electricity and natural gas. Engie Brasil Energia serves customers in Brazil.

China Resources Power Holdings Company Limited is a power generation company. The Company invests, develops, owns, and operates coal-fired power plants in China.

Talen Energy Corporation provides utility services. The Company generates, distributes, transmits, and markets electricity, as well as produces and supplies natural gas and other renewable energy products for residential and commercial users. Talen Energy serves customers in the United States.

China Power International Development Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, constructs, owns, manages, and operates large power plants in China.

Aboitiz Power Corporation provides hydroelectric power generation.

JSW Energy Limited generates power by using Corex gas and coal. The Company, through its subsidiary, also operates lignite thermal power plant in Rajasthan and has a capacity to produce 3,140 megawatts of electricity. JSW is also present in the power trading and transmission businesses.

Ormat Technologies, Inc. develops and operates renewable energy projects. The Company offers geothermal, recovered energy, and energy management and storage solutions. Ormat Technologies serves customers worldwide.

Huaneng Power International, Inc. develops, constructs, owns and operates coal-fired power plants throughout China. It also builds gas-fired, hydroelectric and wind power generation in China and owns Tuas Power which controls power generation facilities in Singapore.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Huaneng Power Intl Inc H (902 HK)

China Longyuan (916 HK): We Stay on the Bull Camp

Capacity expansion of 17.7-20.9% YoY, coupled with efficiency improvement will mean sharp rebound in FY23 profit. Reduction in impairment and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CHINA: Do You Like AI? BUY Utilities!

AI is creating an opportunity to benefit from the surge in power needs of China. Rapid growth in data centers to power AI will benefit China power...

David Mudd

China Power International (2380 HK): A Major Move to Raise Clean Energy Exposure

CPI's Rmb10.8bn acquisition from its parent will make clean energy reach 70% of total capacity. The move will enhance earnings by 10% and an all...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Premier Li Keqiang Emphasises Energy Security and Stable Energy Supply

Premier stressed rectifying one-size-fits-all approach in shutting down energy-intensive projects.This provides further signs of policymakers...

Li Tang

State Council Issues Supportive Measures to Boost Power Supply

Renewable energy operators or power operators with renewable energy capacity likely to benefiting after the State Council relaxed the ceiling on...

Li Tang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)